Inflation has gone up from 1.99 % to 2.17 %
Consumer price index of February 2019
- Inflation increases from 1.99 % to 2.17 % in February.
- The consumer price index this month increases by 0.35 point or 0.32 %.
- Inflation based on the health index has increased to 2.10 %, up from 2.00 %.
- The smoothed health index stood at 106.38 points in February.
- The main upward pressure in February came from motor fuels, travels abroad and city trips, the purchase of vehicles, flowers and plants, meat, holiday villages, newspapers and periodicals and vegetables. However, confectionery, natural gas and bread and cereals have had a decreasing effect on the index.
The consumer price index was running at 108,52 points in February 2019. It has increased by 0.35 point over the month. Inflation has gone up to 2.17 % from 1.99 %. The health index has gained 0.28 point to 108.78 points. Inflation based on the health index has gone up from 2.00 % to 2.10 %. The main upward pressure this month came from motor fuels, travels abroad and city trips, the purchase of vehicles, flowers and plants, meat, holiday villages, newspapers and periodicals and vegetables. These increases were mainly offset by price decreases for confectionery, natural gas and bread and cereals.
The consumer price index rose by 0.35 point or 0.32 % to 108.52 points in February 2019, compared to 108.17 points in January 2019 (2013=100).
The health index went up by 0.28 point to 108.78 points in February, compared to 108.50 points in January. The smoothed health index stood at 106.38 points in February. The central index for public service and social benefits, set at 107.20 points, has therefore not been reached. The last time the central index was exceeded was in August 2018.
Products with the largest increasing effect in February were motor fuels, travels abroad and city trips, the purchase of vehicles, flowers and plants, meat, holiday villages, newspapers and periodicals and vegetables. Most of the downward pressure came from confectionery, natural gas and bread and cereals. The most important trends this month are:
| Upward: | Effect: | Downward: | Effect: |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motor fuels | +0.085 point | Confectionery | -0.030 point |
| Travels abroad and city trips | +0.045 point | Natural gas | -0.020 point |
| Purchase of vehicles | +0.040 point | Bread and cereals | -0.020 point |
| Flowers and plants | +0.035 point | ||
| Meat | +0.030 point | ||
| Holiday villages | +0.025 point | ||
| Newspapers and periodicals | +0.025 point | ||
| Vegetables | +0.020 point |
Motor fuels have become 2.3 % more expensive compared to last month. Travels abroad and city trips were on average 2.6 % more expensive than last month. Prices for the purchase of vehicles have increased by 0.5 % on average. Prices for flowers and plants were up by 6.1 %. As every year in February, higher prices were registered especially for roses due to Valentine's Day. Prices for meat have increased on average by 0.7 %. Prices for stays in holiday villages increased on average by 3.4 % in February. Newspapers and periodicals were on average 4.2 % more expensive than last month. Prices for vegetables have increased on average by 1.0 %.
Confectionery is on average 2.6 % less expensive compared to the previous month. Natural gas has become on average 1.1 % less expensive. Prices for bread and cereals have decreased by 0.6 % compared to the previous month.
Inflation now stands at 2.17 % compared to 1.99 % in January and 2.34 % in December. Inflation based on the health index amounted to 2.10 % this month compared to 2.00 % in January and 2.17 % in December. Inflation without energy has gone up to 1.60 % in February compared to 1.46 % last month and 1.59 % in December. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stands at 1.58 % in February, compared to 1.43 % in January and 1.62 % in December.
Food inflation now stands at 1.50 % compared to 1.43 % last month and 1.56 % in December. Fresh fruit now costs 2.7 % less than in February 2018. Fresh vegetables prices are on the rise: 6.2 % on an annual basis. Fish and shellfish are 2.5 % more expensive than a year ago. Prices have increased by 0.8 % for non-alcoholic beverages and by 1.9 % for alcoholic beverages. Tobacco prices have gone up by 5.9 % compared to February last year. Energy inflation now stands at 7.14 %, compared to 6.63 % in January and 8.85 % in December. Electricity is now 8.2 % more expensive than a year ago. Natural gas is 5.6 % more expensive than in February last year. Prices for domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, have increased by 17.3 % in one year. Motor fuels are 3.1 % more expensive than last year. Inflation for services has gone up to 1.93 % from 1.75 %. Inflation for rents has increased and now stands at 1.03 %, compared to 0.95 % in January.
The following products and services have registered the sharpest price increases compared to last year in February:
| Stijgend: | Inflatie: |
|---|---|
| Postverzending | 27,7% |
| Huisbrandolie | 17,3% |
| Kranten | 14,2% |
| Andere tabaksproducten (roltabak) | 13,1% |
| Wijn op basis van ander fruit (cider) | 12,2% |
| Buitenlandse reizen en citytrips | 10,5% |
| Aardappelen | 9,4% |
| Parking | 9,0% |
| Diesel | 8,6% |
| Elektriciteit | 8,2% |
| Musea, bibliotheken en dierentuinen | 7,0% |
| Ander vlees (konijn) | 7,0% |
The following products and services have registered the sharpest price decreases compared to last year in February:
| Dalend: | Inflatie: |
|---|---|
| Eieren | -13,8% |
| Vliegtickets | -7,8% |
| Benzine | -4,6% |
| Vakantiedorpen | -4,0% |
| Ffff | 0,0% |
| Pizza en quiche | -3,8% |
| Mobiele telefoontoestellen | -3,7% |
| Speelgoed (spelconsoles en videospellen) | -3,5% |
| Videoapparatuur (televisies) | -3,3% |
| Computers en laptops | -3,3% |
| Niet-elektrische apparaten voor lichaamsverzorging | -2,9% |
| Vers fruit | -2,7% |
| Andere gegevensverwerkende apparatuur (smartwatch) | -2,7% |
The main group with the largest upward effect on inflation in February was "housing, water, energy" with an effect on inflation of 0.45 percentage point. The largest downward effect was measured for "food and non-alcoholic beverages" (-0.14 percentage point).
The main group with the largest contribution to inflation is "housing, water and energy" with 0.76 percentage point. The lowest contribution to inflation was registered by the main groups "communication" and "education", with 0.01 percentage point.
| 2013 = 100 | November | December | Januari | Februari |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumptieprijsindex | 108,48 | 108,22 | 108,17 | 108,52 |
| Inflatie | 2,78% | 2,34% | 1,99% | 2,17% |
| Gezondheidsindex | 108,48 | 108,45 | 108,50 | 108,78 |
| Afgevlakte gezondheidsindex* | 105,79 | 106,01 | 106,25 | 106,38 |
| * bepaald in de wet van 23.04.2015 tot verbetering van de werkgelegenheid (Belgisch Staatsblad van 27.04.2015) | ||||
Consumer price index, inflation, health index, health index (moving average), index without energy and petroleum, last 13 months
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Annual inflation rate (in %) based on 12 groups (COICOP), last 11 months
Consumer price index based on 4 groups, last 13 months
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Purpose and brief description
The consumer price index is an economic indicator whose main task is to objectively reflect the price evolution over time for a basket of goods and services purchased by households and considered representative of their consumer habits. The index does not necessarily measure the price level of this basket for a specific period of time, but rather the fluctuation between two periods, the first one acting as basis for comparison. Moreover, this difference in the price level is not measured in absolute, but in relative terms. The consumer price index can be determined as a hundred times the ratio between the observed prices of a range of goods and services at a given time and the prices of the same goods and services, observed under the same circumstances during the reference period, chosen as basis for comparison. Price observations always take place in the same regions.
Since 2014, the consumer price index has been a chain index in which the weighting reference period is regularly shifted and prices and quantities are no longer compared between the current period and a fixed reference period, but the current period is compared with an intermediate period. By multiplying these short-term indices, and so creating a chain, we get a long-term series with a fixed reference period.
Population
Belgian private households
Data collection method and possible sampling
Survey technique applied using a computer, based on the use of electronic questionnaires and laptops.
Frequency
Monthly.
Timing of publication
The results are available on the penultimate working day of the reference period.
Definitions
Weight (CPI): The weight represents the importance of the goods and services included in the CPI in the total expenditure patterns of the households. Weights are determined based on the household budget survey.
Consumer price index (CPI): The consumer price index is an economic indicator whose main task is to objectively reflect the price evolution over time for a basket of goods and services purchased by households and considered representative of their consumer habits.
Health index: The health index is derived from the consumer price index and has been published since January 1994. The current value of this index is determined by removing a number of products from the consumer price index product basket, in particular alcoholic beverages (bought in a shop or consumed in a bar), tobacco products and motor fuels except for LPG.
Inflation: Inflation is defined as the ratio between the value of the consumer price index of a given month and the index of the same month the year before. Therefore, inflation measures the rhythm of the evolution of the overall price level.
Consumer price index without petroleum products: This index is calculated by removing the following products from the consumer price index: butane, propane, liquid fuels and motor fuels.
Consumer price index without energy products: This index is calculated by removing the following products from the consumer price index: electricity, natural gas, butane, propane, liquid fuels, solid fuels and motor fuels.
Smoothed index: The smoothed index is the arithmetic mean of the health index of the last 4 months. The smoothed index is used as basis for the indexation of retirement pensions, social allowances and some wages and salaries. The indexations of public services wages and social benefits are implemented when the smoothed index reaches a certain value, the so-called central index. When the smoothed index reaches the central index, the benefits increase by 2 % the following month. The wages in the public sector also increase by 2 % two months after the central index was reached.
The central index is a predetermined threshold value against which the smoothed health index is compared. If the central index is reached or exceeded, there is an indexation of the wages and salaries or benefits. This indexation is proportional to the percentage between the old and the new central index. For the public sector and social benefits, the difference between the central indices always amounts to 2 %. Therefore, a 2 % indexation is applied every time the central index is reached. There are also collective labour agreements according to which the difference between the central indices amounts to 1 % or 1.5 %. The reaching of a central index then leads to an indexation of 1 % or 1,5 %.
See also: http://www.wedden.fgov.be/indexation/default.htm
And: http://www.traitements.fgov.be/indexation/default.htm
An effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall CPI).
The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.
