Inflation amounts to 2.86%
Consumer price index - August 2024
- Inflation goes from 3.64% to 2.86% in August.
- The consumer price index remains unchanged from the previous month.
- Inflation based on the health index has fallen from 3.60% to 3.20%.
- The smoothed health index stood at 129.63 points in August.
- Food inflation (including alcoholic beverages) now stands at 0.04% compared to 0.54% last month. The contribution of food products to inflation currently amounts to 0.02 percentage points.
- Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stands at 2.73% in August, compared to 3.04% in July.
- The most significant price increases in August were registered for tobacco, private rents, non-alcoholic beverages, hotel rooms, clothing and restaurants and cafés. However, motor fuels, household appliances, flowers and plants, vegetables and natural gas have had a decreasing effect on the index.
Inflation amounts to 2.86% in August compared to 3.64% in July and 3.74% in June. Inflation based on the health index amounts to 3.20% this month compared to 3.60% in July and 3.80% in June. Inflation without energy amounts to 2.47% in August compared to 2.69% in July and 2.68% in June. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stood at 2.73% in August, compared to 3.04% in July and 2.97% in June.
Comment on inflation
With regard to energy, we see a positive inflation. It now stands at 6.96%, compared to 14.01% last month and 15.10% in June. For electricity, inflation is currently at 11.3% compared to 9.0% last month. For natural gas, it went from 114.3% last month to 103.0% this month. Compared to last month, natural gas prices decreased by 1.6% and those for electricity by 0.3%. The high levels of the inflation in recent months is due to the phasing-out of the impact of the basic package for electricity and natural gas. The last effect of the basic package disappeared from the price index in March. The disappearance of the basic package will therefore continue to have an upward impact on inflation up to February 2025 included. Prices for domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, have decreased by 9.3% in a year. Motor fuels also cost 9.3% less than in August last year and decreased by 3.9% this month compared to the previous month.
Inflation for services has decreased to 4.04% from 4.21%. Inflation for rents has increased to 4.74% from 4.63%. Food inflation (including alcoholic beverages) now stands at 0.04% compared to 0.54% last month. It reached a high of 17.02% in March 2023.
Energy inflation goes from 14.01% in July to 6.96% in August and accounts for 0.58 percentage points to total inflation. With an inflation of 0.04%, food products account for 0.02 percentage points.
The price of natural gas has decreased by 1.6% in August compared to the previous month. The price of electricity has decreased by 0.3% on average this month.
Some products and services that rose sharply in price compared to August last year are:
| Upward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Natural gas | 103.0% |
| Fresh seafood | 40.9% |
| Olive oil | 28.0% |
| Low and non-alcoholic beer | 26.7% |
| Other tobacco products (e.g. loose tobacco) | 25.2% |
| Cigarettes | 23.8% |
| Wine from other fruits (cider) | 18.6% |
| Newspapers | 17.9% |
Some products and services that fell sharply in price compared to August last year are:
| Downward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Video equipment (television) | -17.8% |
| Smartphones | -17.1% |
| Computers (laptops) | -13.0% |
| Pizza and quiche | -11.6% |
| Tea | -11.1% |
| Petrol | -10.7% |
| Small data processing equipment (e.g. smartwatch) | -9.8% |
| Diesel | -9.7% |
The group with the largest upward effect[i] on inflation in August was “Housing, water and energy” with an effect of 1.15 percentage points. The largest downward effect was measured for ““Food and non-alcoholic beverages” (-0.75 percentage points).
The main group with the largest contribution[ii] to inflation was “Housing, water and energy” with 1.38 percentage points. The lowest contribution to inflation was registered by the main group “Transport”, with -0.09 percentage points.
The first inflation estimate according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP flash estimate) for Belgium amounts to 4.5% for August 2024.
Comment on the level of the indices
In August 2024, the consumer price index remains unchanged and amounts to 132.81 points, like in the previous month (2013 = 100). The health index went up by 0.10 points to 132.94 points in August, compared to 132.84 points in July. The smoothed health index stood at 129.63 points in August. The next central index for public service and social benefits is set at 130.67 points.
The most significant price increases in August were registered for tobacco, private rents, non-alcoholic beverages, hotel rooms, clothing and restaurants and cafés. However, motor fuels, household appliances, flowers and plants, vegetables and natural gas have had a decreasing effect on the index.
The most important trends this month are:
| Upward: | Effect: | Downward: | Effect: |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tobacco | +0.050 points | Motor fuels | -0.175 points |
| Private rents | +0.045 points | Household appliances | -0.070 points |
| Non-alcoholic beverages | +0.040 points | Flowers and plants | -0.035 points |
| Hotel rooms | +0.035 points | Vegetables | -0.035 points |
| Clothing | +0.030 points | Natural gas | -0.030 points |
| Restaurants and cafés | +0.030 points |
Prices for tobacco increased this month by 5.4% on average. Prices for private rents increased on average by 0.6%. Non-alcoholic beverages were on average 1.7% more expensive than in the previous month. The price of hotel rooms has increased by 2.1% on average this month. Clothing is 0.5% more expensive than in the previous month. Restaurants and cafés were on average 0.3% more expensive than in the previous month.
The price of motor fuels has decreased by 3.9% on average compared to the previous month. Household appliances were on average 6.3% less expensive than in the previous month. Prices for flowers and plants decreased by 4.7% on average. Vegetables were on average 1.2% less expensive than in the previous month. Finally, the price of natural gas has decreased by 1.6% on average compared to the previous month.
| 2013 = 100 | May | June | July | August |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer price index | 131.58 | 131.87 | 132.81 | 132.81 |
| Inflation | 3.36% | 3.74% | 3.64% | 2.86% |
| Health index | 131.42 | 131.92 | 132.84 | 132.94 |
| Smoothed health index* | 128.62 | 128.86 | 129.12 | 129.63 |
| * defined in the law of 23 April 2015 on the promotion of employment (Belgian Official Journal of 27 April 2015) | ||||
[i] The effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall CPI).
[ii] The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.
Consumer price index, inflation, health index, health index (moving average), index without energy and petroleum, last 13 months
Access to latest statisticsConsumer price index by base year, last 13 months
Annual inflation rate (in %) based on 12 groups (COICOP), last 11 months
Consumer price index based on 4 groups, last 13 months
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Purpose and brief description
The consumer price index is an economic indicator whose main task is to objectively reflect the price evolution over time for a basket of goods and services purchased by households and considered representative of their consumer habits. The index does not necessarily measure the price level of this basket for a specific period of time, but rather the fluctuation between two periods, the first one acting as basis for comparison. Moreover, this difference in the price level is not measured in absolute, but in relative terms. The consumer price index can be determined as a hundred times the ratio between the observed prices of a range of goods and services at a given time and the prices of the same goods and services, observed under the same circumstances during the reference period, chosen as basis for comparison. Price observations always take place in the same regions.
Since 2014, the consumer price index has been a chain index in which the weighting reference period is regularly shifted and prices and quantities are no longer compared between the current period and a fixed reference period, but the current period is compared with an intermediate period. By multiplying these short-term indices, and so creating a chain, we get a long-term series with a fixed reference period.
Population
Belgian private households
Data collection method and possible sampling
Survey technique applied using a computer, based on the use of electronic questionnaires and laptops.
Frequency
Monthly.
Timing of publication
The results are available on the penultimate working day of the reference period.
Definitions
Weight (CPI): The weight represents the importance of the goods and services included in the CPI in the total expenditure patterns of the households. Weights are determined based on the household budget survey.
Consumer price index (CPI): The consumer price index is an economic indicator whose main task is to objectively reflect the price evolution over time for a basket of goods and services purchased by households and considered representative of their consumer habits.
Health index: The health index is derived from the consumer price index and has been published since January 1994. The current value of this index is determined by removing a number of products from the consumer price index product basket, in particular alcoholic beverages (bought in a shop or consumed in a bar), tobacco products and motor fuels except for LPG.
Inflation: Inflation is defined as the ratio between the value of the consumer price index of a given month and the index of the same month the year before. Therefore, inflation measures the rhythm of the evolution of the overall price level.
Consumer price index without petroleum products: This index is calculated by removing the following products from the consumer price index: butane, propane, liquid fuels and motor fuels.
Consumer price index without energy products: This index is calculated by removing the following products from the consumer price index: electricity, natural gas, butane, propane, liquid fuels, solid fuels and motor fuels.
Smoothed index: The smoothed health index, also called smoothed index (the average value of the health indexes of the last 4 months) is used as a basis for the indexation of retirement pensions, social security benefits and some salaries and wages. Public wages and social benefits are indexed as soon as the smoothed index reaches a given value, called the central index. The smoothed index is also called moving average.
In order to perform a 2% index jump (laid down in the Law of 23 April 2015 on employment promotion), the smoothed health index has been temporarily blocked at its value of March 2015 (100.66). The smoothed health index was then reduced by 2% from April 2015. When the reduced smoothed health index (also called the reference index) had increased again by 2% or in other words when it had exceeded the value of 100.66, the index was no longer blocked. It occurred in April 2016.
Since April 2016 the smoothed health index is calculated in the same manner as the reference index and therefore corresponds to the arithmetical mean of the health indexes of the last 4 months multiplied by a factor of 0.98.
The central index is a predetermined threshold value against which the smoothed health index is compared. If the central index is reached or exceeded, there is an indexation of the wages and salaries or benefits. This indexation is proportional to the percentage between the old and the new central index. For the public sector and social benefits, the difference between the central indices always amounts to 2 %. Therefore, a 2 % indexation is applied every time the central index is reached. There are also collective labour agreements according to which the difference between the central indices amounts to 1 % or 1.5 %. The reaching of a central index then leads to an indexation of 1 % or 1,5 %.
See also: https://bosa.belgium.be/nl/themas/werken-bij-de-overheid/verloning-en-voordelen/loonwedde/indexatie/indexatie-algemene
And : https://bosa.belgium.be/fr/themes/travailler-dans-la-fonction-publique/remuneration-et-avantages/traitement/indexation-0
An effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall CPI).
The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.
Metadata
- Monthly survey of consumer prices by surveyors in stores.pdf
- Enquête 'Private huur'.pdf
- Consumptieprijsindexen.pdf
- Huishoudbudgetonderzoek.pdf
- Enquête 'sociale huur'.pdf
Index-phone
02/277.56.40