Second forecasts of the economic accounts for agriculture 2022
The second estimates of the economic accounts for Belgian agriculture for the year 2022 largely confirm the first estimates. Rising costs of energy and agricultural raw materials directly affect all inputs to the agricultural sector. Overall, intermediate consumption increases by 23.3% compared to 2021. The production value increases by 19.5%. For the total production value of the agricultural sector, the price effect of +23.5% is faced with a negative volume effect of -3.3%. However, the net value added increases by 11.9%. It is higher than the average of the previous 5 years.
For agricultural crops, producer prices for cereals are estimated to increase compared to 2021 (+26.8%). The 2022 cereals harvest being marketed until mid-2023, prices for the economic accounts for 2022 are affected by the 2023 prices. While at the beginning of the season, in 2022, the upward trend was still very marked, this price surge has been reversed in recent months. On European markets, wheat has even returned to the level registered before the invasion of Ukraine. Stock levels in Europe and the renewal of the Black Sea deal have reassured the supply of these basic foodstuffs. Taking into account the estimated increase in Belgian production, the value of cereal production would increase by 47.3% in 2022.
The production value of industrial crops has also increased, but to a lesser extent (+24.3%). For this season, sugar beet growers should partly benefit from the increase in the price of white sugar. The price effect is estimated at +22.6%. Thanks to this increase in producer prices combined with better yields, the production value of the beet sector should increase by 28.1% compared to 2021.
In 2022, the production of oilseeds should increase by 28.8% in Belgium. At European level, production prospects are also optimistic. Rising imports suggest rising stock levels. As a result, prices are expected to fall and the production value of oilseeds is expected to gain only 5.3% compared to 2021.
In terms of fruit, the situation is tense on the European market for apples. Belgian production declined but remained almost stable at European level. However, there is excess supply due to increased transport costs and the conflict in Ukraine, which have an impact on foreign trade. Prices are being pushed down. For pears, recent prices for the 2022 harvest are more encouraging. The decline in producer prices for fruit is estimated at 9.1%, resulting in a decrease in production value of 9.6% compared to 2021.
Finally, animal production benefited from a positive price effect due, in particular, to the price increases for pigs, milk and eggs. For animals, the price increase is estimated at 29.7%, but production is expected to decline by 4.4%. The production value is expected to increase by 22.7% compared to 2021. Regarding animal products, the production value would increase by 52.0%.
As far as intermediate consumption is concerned, the main price increase was registered for gas, which is both a fuel for the sector and a component of fertilisers - the price of which has risen sharply this year. The cost of animal feed has also increased sharply: +26.1%.
Economic accounts for agriculture (current prices): values at basic prices (millions of euros)
|2017||2018||2019||2020||2021||2022 forecasts||2022/2021 (%)||Average 2017-2021|
|1. Cereals (including seeds)||376,8||417,8||435,9||490,1||696,7||1.026,0||47,3%||483,5|
|2. Industrial crops||228,4||222,9||232,8||230,6||242,3||301,2||24,3%||231,4|
|3. Forage plants||659,4||639,5||691,5||718,4||970,8||838,0||-13,7%||735,9|
|4. Vegetables and horticultural products||1.342,2||1.407,0||1.561,0||1.628,0||1.878,6||1.891,1||0,7%||1.563,4|
|Plants and flowers||496,6||555,7||586,6||519,3||586,7||612,8||4,5%||549,0|
|5. Potatoes (including seeds)||519,7||464,0||492,1||489,7||652,8||786,2||20,4%||523,6|
|7. Other crop products||27,9||27,9||27,9||27,9||27,9||26,7||-4,1%||27,9|
|8. Crop output (1 to 7)||3.576,1||3.640,4||3.926,1||4.110,8||5.022,7||5.370,1||6,9%||4.055,2|
|10. Animal products||1.469,1||1.380,8||1.478,5||1.521,8||1.753,8||2.665,9||52,0%||1.520,8|
|11. Animal output (9+10)||4.732,5||4.488,9||4.747,4||4.711,3||4.953,1||6.592,2||33,1%||4.726,6|
|12. Agricultural goods output (8+11)||8.308,6||8.129,3||8.673,5||8.822,1||9.975,8||11.962,3||19,9%||8.781,8|
|13. Secondary services and activities||163,7||175,5||190,8||235,9||236,3||236,3||0,0%||200,4|
|14. Output of the agricultural industry (12+13)||8.472,3||8.304,8||8.864,3||9.058,0||10.212,1||12.198,6||19,5%||8.982,3|
|15. Intermediate consumption||6.000,5||6.079,2||6.237,1||6.585,7||7.641,1||9.424,3||23,3%||6.508,7|
|16. Fixed capital consumption||784,8||771,0||737,4||822,5||860,6||860,6||0,0%||795,2|
|17. Net value added at basic prices (14-15-16)||1.687,1||1.454,7||1.889,9||1.649,8||1.710,3||1.913,6||11,9%||1.678,3|
|18. Compensation of employees||686,6||670,7||682,5||690,8||707,4||726,6||2,7%||687,6|
|19. Other taxes on production||3,2||3,8||3,0||2,9||2,9||2,9||0,0%||3,2|
|20. Other subsidies on production||554,7||607,3||613,3||630,4||618,0||626,2||1,3%||604,7|
|21. Factor income (17-19+20)||2.238,5||2.058,2||2.500,1||2.277,4||2.325,5||2.537,0||9,1%||2.279,9|
|Indicator A (2010=100)*||90,2||82,2||99,2||91,2||89,1||91,1||2,2%|
|* Indicator A = Index of real income from agricultural factors per annual work unit, after deflation|
Purpose and brief description
The Economic Accounts for Agriculture (EAA) provide a systematic and comparable overview of the economic activity in the agricultural sector. They include the net value added (production account, i.e. the remuneration of all factors of production), the net operating surplus (generation of income account, i.e. yield from land, capital and non-salaried labour) and the net entrepreneurial income (entrepreneurial income account, i.e. compensation of non-salaried labour, remuneration from land belonging to units and the yield arising from the use of capital). The net value added is calculated at producer prices (i.e. without taking subsidies and taxes on products into account), on the one hand, and at factor cost or at basic prices (taking these subsidies and taxes into account), on the other hand. They are compiled for all agricultural economic units in the country, belonging to the agricultural sector. In concrete terms, this sector includes all the agricultural enterprises questioned in the agricultural surveys in May and which correspond to the definition of agricultural enterprise used in that census.
The EAA are annual and are closed in September of the year following the reference year. All sources with statistical data about agriculture, both internal and external to Statbel, are used to compile these accounts.