Deaths in 2024 in line with reference period

Some 112,100 deaths were provisionally recorded in Belgium in 2024. That is about 900 more deaths than the previous year, or a 0.8% increase compared to 2023. A comparison with a wider reference period is more interesting. The number of deaths fluctuates from year to year due to various factors, such as the intensity of the flu season, the measured summer temperatures or air pollution. Compared to a broader reference period, namely the average for 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023, we see in 2024 a similar number of deaths. This is what emerged from a first provisional overview of the number of deaths in the year 2024, for all causes of death, from Statbel, the Belgian statistical office. Further scientific research should reveal the impact of the population structure on the number of deaths [1].
Compared to the broad reference period, the number of deaths fell slightly in the Brussels Capital Region and the Walloon Region (-3.3% and -1.1%) and rose slightly in the Flemish Region (+1.1%). Among the youngest age groups (1 to 74 years old), the number of deaths decreases by 3.2%, while among the over-75s it increases slightly by 1.5%.
The publication contains the provisional number of deaths for all Belgian districts in 2024 and is based on the 18 January 2025 extraction from the National Register. Also in 2025, Statbel will update the mortality figures weekly on Fridays.
This publication compares the number of deaths in 2024 with the number of deaths in 2023 and the average number of deaths in the period 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023. In this reference period, the year 2020 was excluded because the coronavirus pandemic in that year had a major impact on the number of deaths.
Sciensano also publishes every year a detailed analysis, specifically on the under-mortality or excess mortality observed compared to the mortality expected according to their Be-MOMO model. This analysis is available on their website. Small differences between Statbel's figures and Sciensano's Be-MOMO model are possible. This can be explained by methodological differences, such as the exclusion of deaths that took place abroad by Sciensano, as well as the different methodology to calculate the expected number of deaths.
Number of deaths in line with the average for 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023
With roughly 112,100 deaths in 2024, there is a 0.8% increase compared to 2023. But a comparison with a wider reference period is more interesting. The number of deaths fluctuates from year to year due to various factors, such as the intensity of the flu season, the measured summer temperatures or air pollution. The average for the years 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023 is 112,168 deaths. When compared with that average, the number of deaths in 2024 is in line with the broader reference period.
Decrease in the Brussels-Capital Region and in the Walloon Region
The number of deaths in 2024 is in line with the broader reference period (2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023), but there are some slight regional differences. Compared to the broader reference period (2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023), we see a decrease in the number of deaths in 2024 in the Brussels-Capital Region and the Walloon Region by 3.3% and 1.1% respectively. However, in the Flemish Region there is slight increase of 1.1%.
Compared to 2023, the number of deaths slightly decreased by 0.7% in Brussels in 2024. However, in Wallonia and Flanders, we saw a slight increase of 0.4% and 1.2% respectively.
It is possible that the difference in the population structure between the regions plays a role. For example, on 01/01/2024, Flanders had the highest proportion of people over 85 (3.3%), followed by Wallonia (2.7%) and Brussels (2.0%). More in-depth analyses are needed to clarify the effect of the differences in the population structure [1].
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Evolution 2024 vs 2023 (in %) | Evolution 2024 vs 2019-2021-2022-2023 (in %) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Belgium | 108,745 | 126,850 | 112,291 | 116,380 | 111,255 | 112,131 | +0.8% | +0.0% |
Flemish Region | 62,420 | 70,919 | 64,508 | 67,528 | 64,670 | 65,470 | +1.2% | +1.1% |
Walloon Region | 37,409 | 44,947 | 38,934 | 39,938 | 38,002 | 38,140 | +0.4% | -1.1% |
Brussels-Capital Region | 8,916 | 10,984 | 8,849 | 8,914 | 8,583 | 8,521 | -0.7% | -3.3% |
Only among the over-85s is the number of deaths higher than expected
The number of deaths among men decreased by 0.4% in 2024, compared to the average for the years 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023. The number of deaths among women slightly increased by 0.4%
At age group level, we see a decrease in the number of deaths among all age groups, with the exception of the over-75s. Compared to the average for 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023, the number of deaths in 2024 decreased by 2.6% among the 1-24-year-olds, by 1.5% among the 25-44-year-olds, by 6.0% among the 45-64-year-olds and by 1.4% among the 65-74-year-olds. Among the 75-84-year-olds, the number of deaths is in line with the observations in the reference period. Finally, among the over-85s, we saw a 2.3% increase compared to this broader reference period.
The changing population structure most likely plays an important role in the increase in the number of deaths among those over 85 in 2024. The number of people aged over 85 has been on the rise for quite a few years. Between 01/01/2019 and 01/01/2024, there is an increase of 6.9% in the number of people over 85. So there are increasing numbers of people in the age group with a higher risk of death. This at least partly explains why the number of deaths is rising among the over-85s in 2024. More in-depth analyses are needed to clarify the effect of the differences in the population structure [1].
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Evolution 2024 vs 2023 (in %) | Evolution 2024 vs 2019-2021-2022-2023 (in %) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1-24 years old [2] | 531 | 515 | 555 | 566 | 505 | 525 | +4.0% | -2.6% |
25-44 years old | 2,129 | 2,175 | 2,275 | 2,199 | 2,125 | 2,149 | +1.1% | -1.5% |
45-64 years old | 13,139 | 13,950 | 13,373 | 13,096 | 12,365 | 12,220 | -1.2% | -6.0% |
65-74 years old | 17,690 | 20,170 | 19,421 | 19,103 | 18,057 | 18,304 | +1.4% | -1.4% |
75-84 years old | 28,244 | 33,562 | 30,035 | 30,240 | 29,219 | 29,511 | +1.0% | +0.3% |
85+ years old | 46,586 | 56,106 | 46,290 | 50,841 | 48,644 | 49,194 | +1.1% | +2.3% |
Fewer deaths in summer and more deaths in winter
There were no major highs or lows in the number of deaths during 2024: the number of deaths follows a typical pattern of slightly more deaths in winter and slightly less in summer. Highs and lows in the number of deaths are usually due to specific factors, such as the intensity of the flu season, the measured summer temperatures or air pollution. Last year, we saw few extreme conditions that could have had an effect on the number of deaths, either in terms of flu season or other conditions.
The final results on causes of death will be studied to better understand the causes of the mortality in 2024.
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Evolution 2024 vs 2023 (in %) | Evolution 2024 vs 2019-2021-2022-2023 (in %) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
January | 10,468 | 10,217 | 10,698 | 10,452 | 11,176 | 11,256 | +0.7% | +5.2% |
February | 9,766 | 9,387 | 8,952 | 9,847 | 9,363 | 9,801 | +4.7% | +3.4% |
March | 9,998 | 11,586 | 9,349 | 10,519 | 10,239 | 9,561 | -6.6% | -4.6% |
April | 8,901 | 15,449 | 9,468 | 10,310 | 8,797 | 9,099 | +3.4% | -2.9% |
May | 8,829 | 9,449 | 9,201 | 9,137 | 8,876 | 8,679 | -2.2% | -3.7% |
June | 8,276 | 7,992 | 8,150 | 8,726 | 8,635 | 8,763 | +1.5% | +3.7% |
July | 8,755 | 8,004 | 8,467 | 9,004 | 8,231 | 8,822 | +7.2% | +2.4% |
August | 8,242 | 9,847 | 8,274 | 9,196 | 8,413 | 8,699 | +3.4% | +2.0% |
September | 8,003 | 8,189 | 8,309 | 8,613 | 8,439 | 8,451 | +0.1% | +1.3% |
October | 8,888 | 10,752 | 9,772 | 9,646 | 9,096 | 9,390 | +3.2% | +0.4% |
November | 8,867 | 14,035 | 10,304 | 9,010 | 9,248 | 9,127 | -1.3% | -2.5% |
December | 9,752 | 11,943 | 11,347 | 11,920 | 10,742 | 10,483 | -2.4% | -4.2% |
[1] The best known example is the age distribution. This is subject to change over the years and therefore has an impact on the number of deaths in the population. A more concrete example: as the population ages, more and more people are in the older age groups, in which the risk of death is logically higher.
[2] The registration of the number of deaths in 2023 among people under 1 year old is still too incomplete to be able to compare mortality rates correctly in the 0-24 age group, hence the choice to limit the age group to 1-24-year-olds.
Purpose and brief description
General mortality statistics are compiled on the basis of data from the National Register of Natural Persons (RNPP). They make it possible to consolidate the statistics on causes of death, the source of which is the civil status forms. This statistic breaks down the deaths of people residing in Belgium according to sex, municipality of residence (district, province and region), month of death, civil status and nationality (Belgian or foreign). They also make it possible to calculate the gross mortality rate, i.e. the ratio between the number of deaths during the year and the population in the middle of that year.
Population
Inhabitants in Belgium
Periodicity
Annually
Release calendar
Results available 9 months after the reference period
Definitions
Age: Age is measured in completed years on 1 January.
Month of death: Month of death from the date of death
Mortality rate: Gross mortality rate (ratio between the number of deaths and the average population figure of the specified year)
Gender: Gender of the deceased
Nationality: Nationality (Belgian or foreign) of the deceased (on 1 January of the specified year).
Civil status: Civil status of the deceased