• Belgium's inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) was running at 10.5% in August compared to 10.4% in July and 10.5% in June.
• Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) amounts to 5.4% in August compared to 5.2% in July.
• The inflation rate based on the consumer price index (CPI) for August stood at 9.9% compared to 9.6% in July.
• The sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation were gas, electricity, domestic heating oil and motor fuels.
• The sub-indices with the largest negative effect on inflation this month are clothing, housing rent, restaurants and cafés, telecommunication, nursing in hospitals, pharmaceutical products and furniture.
• The harmonised index of consumer prices of August for the EU Member States will be published by Eurostat on 16 September.

The inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP)^[1]  was running at 10.5% in August compared to 10.4% in July and 10.5% in June. The inflation rate based on the harmonised index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT)^[2]  was running at 11.5% in August, compared to 11.3% in July. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the HICP-CT is largely due to the temporary VAT reduction for electricity and gas. These price changes are not taken into account in the HICP-CT.

Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, was 5.4% in August, compared to 5.2% in July and 4.7% in June. Inflation without energy rose slightly to 5.5% in August, compared to 5.4% in July and 4.8% in June.

Inflation for food products stands at 10.3% this month, compared to 9.9% last month. This inflation for food has risen sharply in recent months. In November last year, it was still 0.3%. Inflation for oils, fish, dairy products, bread and cereals and meat has sharply increased in recent months. Inflation for oils stands this month at 21.5%. In November, it was still 4.2%. For dairy products, inflation is now 12.9% compared to 0.8% in November. Fish has an inflation rate of 13.0% this month, while in November it was -1.2%. For bread and cereals, it stands this month at 12.8% compared to 1.7% in November. Inflation for meat amounts this month to 10.1% compared to 0.7% in November.

The sharp increase in inflation in recent months is largely due to energy products. Energy has a contribution to inflation^[3]  of 5.5%. Food products provide a contribution of 1.8%.

Electricity is now 57.2% more expensive than a year ago. Natural gas is 106.9% more expensive on an annual basis. The price of domestic heating oil has risen by 63.6% compared to last year.

Inflation and effect on inflation for the 12 main groups

Based on the breakdown into 12 main groups, the highest inflation rate in August is measured for ‘Housing, water, energy’ (31.2%). The lowest inflation rate was recorded for ‘Clothing and footwear’ (-0.1%). The main group with the largest upward effect on inflation in August was ‘housing, water, energy’ with an effect on inflation of 4.2 percentage points. The largest downward effect is measured for ‘Health’ with -0.7 percentage points.

Inflation^[4] and effect^[5] on inflation for the overall HICP and 12 main groups

Inflation according to specific aggregates

The overall HICP can be broken down into five specific aggregates which together form the total expenditure.

• Inflation for energy products rose slightly compared to last month. It was running at 55.3% in August compared to 55.1% in July and 64.6% in June. Prices increased on average by 2.0% compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 55.9%.
• Inflation of processed food rose from 9.3% in July to 9.6% in August. In June it was 8.3%. Compared to the previous month, prices rose by an average of 0.5%. The average inflation rate for the last twelve months is 5.2%.
• Inflation for unprocessed food (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish) amounts to 8.7% in August compared to 8.0% in July and 7.1% in June. Prices increased on average by 0.4% compared to July. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 3.0%.
• The inflation rate for non-energy industrial goods was 4.2% in August, an increase compared to July when the inflation rate for this aggregate was 4.0%. Prices increased by 5.5% on average compared to the previous month, due to the summer sales in July.
• For services (including rent), inflation rises to 4.3% this month, compared to 4.2% in July and 3.8% in June. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 3.1%.

Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) was 5.4% in August, an increase compared to 5.2% in July. Average core inflation over the last 12 months amounts to 3.4%. Prices of this subaggregate increased by 1.9% compared to the previous month.

Inflation according to specific aggregates

Effect of sub-indices on inflation

The largest upward effect on inflation was caused by gas (1.86 percentage points). Electricity provided an upward effect of 1.74 percentage points. Domestic heating oil provided an effect of 0.63 percentage points. Motor fuels provided a positive impact of 0.38 percentage points.

Sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation

The largest downward effect on inflation came from clothing and housing rent, both with an impact of -0.56 percentage points. Restaurants and cafés had a negative impact of -0.33 percentage points. Telecommunication and nursing in hospital had an impact of -0.31 and -0.27 percentage points respectively. Finally, pharmaceutical products and furniture both have a negative effect of -0.15 percentage points.

Sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation

Comparison with neighbouring countries

Since the final HICP of the neighbouring countries will not be published until later, comparisons can only be made based on the first HICP flash estimate for August. This inflation amounted to 10.5% in August in Belgium, The Netherlands registered an inflation rate of 13.6% in August. This is an increase compared to 11.6% in July. In France, inflation was 6.5% in August, down from 6.8% in July. In Germany, inflation amounted to 8.8% in August, which represents an increase compared to an inflation rate of 8.5% in July.

Since the HICP at constant tax rates for August are not yet published by Eurostat, July is the most recent month to use as a basis for comparison. Belgium's inflation rate based on the HICP-CT stood at 11.3% in July, down from a rate of 11.4% in June. In July and June, the inflation rate in Germany was 9.1%. In France, inflation was 7.2% in July. This is a slight increase compared to June, when the inflation rate based on the HICP-CT was 7.0%. In the Netherlands, inflation rose to 14.3% in July, while in June it was 11.6%.

^[1] In addition to the national consumer price index (CPI), Statbel also calculates a European harmonised consumer price index (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HICP). The HICP is used to compare inflation rates in the EU Member States. To this end, the applied expenditure approach and methods have been coordinated as much as possible and laid down in European regulations. The results of the CPI and HICP are not the same. This is mainly due to a different weighting and composition of the basket of goods and services on which these indices are based.

The HICP is also used by the European Central Bank in its monetary policy. Additionally, the HICP is used to determine to what extent a Member State meets the inflation criteria set in the Treaty on European Union.

Differences between the HICP and the current CPI are:

• The weighting of the basket of goods and services in the HICP is mainly based on the national accounts. At lower detailed levels the Household Budget Survey is used. The CPI mostly uses the Household Budget Survey at all levels.
• The reference population of the HICP consists of private households (including tourists in Belgium) and institutional households (e.g. retirement homes and nursing homes). In the CPI, this population currently consists of private households with a reference person under a maximum age.
• The HICP uses the concept of domestic expenditure: expenditure in Belgium by the reference population. The CPI uses the concept of national expenditure: expenditure by the reference population irrespective of the location.
• Seasonal adjustment is not applied in the HICP, but is applied in the CPI to travels abroad and stays in holiday villages.
• Sales periods have been neutralised in the CPI , but are included in the same month in the HICP.
• Current prices for domestic heating oil are used in the HICP calculation. A weighted 12-month average is applied in the CPI calculation.

^[2] The HICP-CT is calculated in the same way as the regular HICP, but the prices in this index are calculated based on constant tax rates. This index therefore reflects the theoretically potential effect of changes in indirect tax rates (such as VAT or excise duties) on measured inflation. However, this is a theoretical effect, since it presupposes that tax changes are immediately and entirely reflected in prices paid by consumers.

^[3] The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.

^[4] Inflation on annual basis measures the price changes between the current month and the same month of the year before. A 12-month average compares the average HICP of the last 12 months with the average of the previous 12 months. A monthly change compares the price levels of the last two months.

^[5] The effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including the sub-index in the HICP. The effect not only takes the weight of the sub-index into account, but it also takes into account whether the sub-index inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall HICP).