• Belgium's inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) was running at 2.6% in June compared to 2.5% in May.
• Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) was running at 1.2% in June, against 1.1% in May.
• The inflation rate based on the consumer price index (CPI) for June stood at 1.6% compared to 1.5% in May.
• The sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation were domestic heating oil, motor fuels, gas, electricity, tobacco and restaurants and cafés.
• The sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation this month were vegetables, pharmaceutical products, meat, fruit, bread and cereals, telecommunication, clothing and personal care products.
• The impact of the COVID-19 on the calculation of the index is currently limited. More information is available here.
• The harmonised index of consumer prices of June for the EU Member States will be published by Eurostat on 16 July.

Inflation based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP)^[1] was running at 2.6% in June compared to 2.5% in May. The inflation rate based on the harmonised index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT)^[2] was running at 2.7% in June, compared to 2.6% in May. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the HICP-CT is largely due to the changes in excise duties on tobacco and the temporary VAT reduction in the ‘horeca’ sector. These price changes are not taken into account in the HICP-CT.

Inflation and effect on inflation for the 12 main groups

Based on the breakdown into 12 main groups, the highest inflation rate in June was measured for ‘housing, water, energy’ (8.6%). The lowest inflation rate was measured for ‘food and non-alcoholic beverages’ (-1.2%).

The main group with the largest upward effect on inflation in June was ‘housing, water, energy’ with an effect on inflation of 1.2 percentage points. The largest downward effect was measured for ‘food and non-alcoholic beverages’ with -0.8 percentage points.

Inflation^[3] and effect^[4] on inflation for the overall HICP and 12 main groups

Inflation according to specific aggregates

The overall HICP can be broken down into five specific aggregates which together form the total expenditure.

• Inflation for energy products decreased compared to the previous month. It was running at 18.8% in June, against 19.8% in May and 16.2% in April. Prices increased on average by 3.1% compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is -0.7%.  
• Inflation for processed food products increased compared to the previous month. It was running at 1.4% in June compared to 1.0% in May.
• Inflation for unprocessed food (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish) has slightly gone down. It was running at -3.5% in June, against -3.3% in May and -2.7% in April. Prices decreased on average by 0.6% compared to May. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 1.6%.
• Inflation for non-energy industrial goods was running at 0.4% in June, remaining stable compared to May. The average inflation rate for the last twelve months is 0.4%.
• Inflation for services (including rents) amounted to 1.6% in June, just like in May. Prices increased on average by 0.3% compared to the previous month.

Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) was running at 1.2% in June, a slight increase compared to 1.1% in May. Average core inflation over the last 12 months amounts to 1.2%. Prices of this subaggregate increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month.

Inflation according to specific aggregates

Effect of sub-indices on inflation

The largest upward effect on inflation was caused by domestic heating oil (0.46 percentage points). Motor fuels provided a positive impact of 0.41 percentage points. The impact of gas on inflation was 0.35 percentage points. Electricity provided an upward effect of 0.27 percentage points. Furthermore, tobacco and restaurants and cafés had an impact of 0.24 and 0.07 percentage points, respectively.

Sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation

The largest downward effect on inflation came from vegetables (-0.14 percentage points). Pharmaceutical products had an effect of -0.13 percentage points. Meat and fruit had a downward effect of -0.12 and -0.11 percentage points, respectively. Bread and cereals and telecommunication both had a negative effect of -0.09 percentage points. Clothing had a negative impact of -0.07 percentage points. Finally, personal care products had a negative impact of -0.07 percentage points.

Sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation

Comparison with neighbouring countries

Since the final HICP of the neighbouring countries will not be published until later, comparisons can only be made based on the first HICP flash estimate for June. This inflation amounted to 2.6% in June in Belgium. It increased compared to the 2.5% registered in May. The Netherlands registered an inflation rate of 1.7% in June. This is a decrease compared to 2.0% in May. Inflation in France in June amounted to 1.9%, compared to 1.8% in May. In Germany, inflation amounted to 2.1%, which represents a decrease compared to an inflation rate of 2.4% in May.

Since the HICP at constant tax rates for June are not yet published by Eurostat, May is the most recent month to use as a basis for comparison. Belgium's inflation rate based on the HICP-CT stood at 2.6% in May, up from a rate of 1.8% in April. In May, this inflation in Germany amounted to 2.6%, which is a slight increase compared to 2.3% in April. This inflation rate in France slightly rose to 1.6% compared to 1.5% in April. In the Netherlands, this inflation rate rose to 1.3% in May. It was also 1.3% in April.

^[1] In addition to the national consumer price index (CPI), Statbel also calculates a European harmonised consumer price index (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HICP). The HICP is used to compare inflation rates in the EU Member States. To this end, the applied expenditure approach and methods have been coordinated as much as possible and laid down in European regulations. The results of the CPI and HICP are not the same. This is mainly due to a different weighting and composition of the basket of goods and services on which these indices are based.

The HICP is also used by the European Central Bank in its monetary policy. Additionally, the HICP is used to determine to what extent a Member State meets the inflation criteria set in the Treaty on European Union.

Differences between the HICP and the current CPI are:

• The weighting of the basket of goods and services in the HICP is mainly based on the national accounts. At lower detailed levels the Household Budget Survey is used. The CPI mostly uses the Household Budget Survey at all levels.
• The reference population of the HICP consists of private households (including tourists in Belgium) and institutional households (e.g. retirement homes and nursing homes). In the CPI, this population currently consists of private households with a reference person under a maximum age.
• The HICP uses the concept of domestic expenditure: expenditure in Belgium by the reference population. The CPI uses the concept of national expenditure: expenditure by the reference population irrespective of the location.
• Seasonal adjustment is not applied in the HICP, but is applied in the CPI to travels abroad and stays in holiday villages.
• Sales periods in the CPI are systematically spread over 6 months, but are included in the same month in the HICP.
• Current prices for domestic heating oil are used in the HICP calculation. A weighted 12-month average is applied in the CPI calculation.

^[2]The HICP-CT is calculated in the same way as the regular HICP, but the prices in this index are calculated based on constant tax rates. This index therefore reflects the theoretically potential effect of changes in indirect tax rates (such as VAT or excise duties) on measured inflation. However, this is a theoretical effect, since it presupposes that tax changes are immediately and entirely reflected in prices paid by consumers.

^[3]Inflation on annual basis measures the price changes between the current month and the same month of the year before. A 12-month average compares the average HICP of the last 12 months with the average of the previous 12 months. A monthly change compares the price levels of the last two months.

^[4] The effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including the sub-index in the HICP. The effect not only takes the weight of the sub-index into account, but it also takes into account whether the sub-index inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall HICP).