• Belgium's inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) was running at 3.2% in October compared to 2.8% in September. Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) stood at 1.6% in October, and has remained unchanged since July.
• The inflation rate based on the consumer price index (CPI) for October stood at 2.8% compared to 2.4% in September. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the CPI is largely due to the larger weight of fuels and energy sources in the HICP and to the fact that no moving average is used for domestic heating oil in the HICP.
• The sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation were domestic heating oil, motor fuels, gas, electricity and tobacco.
• The sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation were housing rent, clothing, meat, restaurants, cafés and similar services, cultural services and telecommunication.
• The harmonised index of consumer prices for the EU Member states of October will be published by Eurostat on 16th November

Inflation of the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP)amounted to 3.2% in October compared to 2.8% in September. Inflation based on the harmonised index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT) was running at 3.1% in October, up from 2.7% in September. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the HICP-CT is largely due to the changes in excise duties on motor fuels and tobacco. These increases are not taken into account in the HICP-CT.

Inflation and effect on inflation for the 12 main groups

Based on the breakdown into 12 main groups, the highest inflation rate in October was measured for "housing, water and energy" (7.4 %). The lowest inflation rate was measured for “clothing and footwear” and "recreation and culture" (0.6 %).

The main group with the largest upward effect on inflation in October was "housing, water and energy" with an effect on inflation of 0.8 percentage point. The largest downward effect was measured for "recreation and culture" (-0.3 percentage point).

Inflation and effect on inflation for the overall HICP and 12 main groups

Inflation according to specific aggregates

The overall HICP can be broken down into five specific aggregates which together form the total expenditure.

• The inflation rate for fuels and energy sources has gone up. It was running at 17.2 % in October compared to 13.3 % in September. Prices increased on average by 5.0% compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 8.3 %.
• Inflation for processed food products stood at 3.4 % in October compared to 3.0 % in September and 3.2 % in August. Prices increased on average by 0.1% compared to September.
• Inflation for unprocessed food (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish) amounts to 2.4 % in October compared to 3.2 % in September and 1.2 % in August. Prices increased on average by 0.1% compared to September. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 1.3 %.
• The inflation for non-energy industrial goods was running at 1.0 % in October, unchanged from September. Prices increased on average by 0.1 % compared to September.
• Inflation for services was running at 1.5 % in October, also unchanged from September. Prices increased on average by 0.2 % compared to September.

Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) amounts to 1.6% in October and remains unchanged from September, August and July. Average core inflation over the last 12 months has also been 1.6%. Prices of this subaggregate increased on average by 0.1% compared to the previous month.

Inflation according to specific aggregates

Effect of sub-indices on inflation

The largest upward effect on inflation was caused by domestic heating oil and motor fuels, both with an impact of 0.48 percentage point. The impact of gas on inflation was 0.25 percentage point. Electricity provided an effect of 0.18 percentage point. Finally, tobacco provided an effect of 0.11 percentage point.

Sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation

The largest downward effect on inflation came from housing rent (-0.14 percentage point). Clothing and meat provided an effect of -0.12 percentage point. Restaurants, cafés and similar services and cultural services had an effect of -0.10 percentage point. Finally, telecommunication provided an effect of -0.08 percentage point.

Sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation

Comparison with neighbouring countries

Since the HICP of the neighbouring countries will not be published until later, comparisons can only be made for the month of September.

In September, inflation in Belgium was running at 2.8%, up from the 2.6% registered in August. The Netherlands registered an inflation rate of 1.6% in September; a decrease compared to an inflation rate of 2.1% in August. Inflation in France amounted to 2.5% in September, also a decrease compared to 2.6% in August. Inflation in Germany amounted to 2.2% in September, an increase compared to 1.9% in August.

Belgium's inflation rate based on the HICP-CT stood at 2.7% in September, up from a rate of 2.5% in August. In Germany, this inflation amounted to 2.2%, just like the regular HICP inflation. In France, inflation decreased from 1.9% in August to 1.8% in September. Inflation in the Netherlands in September amounted to 1.1%, also down from 1.4% in August.