Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)

Harmonised index of consumer prices – October 2018

Consumer prices
Harmonised index of consumer prices – October 2018
  • Belgium's inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) was running at 3.2% in October compared to 2.8% in September. Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) stood at 1.6% in October, and has remained unchanged since July.
  • The inflation rate based on the consumer price index (CPI) for October stood at 2.8% compared to 2.4% in September. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the CPI is largely due to the larger weight of fuels and energy sources in the HICP and to the fact that no moving average is used for domestic heating oil in the HICP.
  • The sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation were domestic heating oil, motor fuels, gas, electricity and tobacco.
  • The sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation were housing rent, clothing, meat, restaurants, cafés and similar services, cultural services and telecommunication.
  • The harmonised index of consumer prices for the EU Member states of October will be published by Eurostat on 16th November

hicp2018-10a_en.png

Inflation of the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP)amounted to 3.2% in October compared to 2.8% in September. Inflation based on the harmonised index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT) was running at 3.1% in October, up from 2.7% in September. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the HICP-CT is largely due to the changes in excise duties on motor fuels and tobacco. These increases are not taken into account in the HICP-CT.

Inflation and effect on inflation for the 12 main groups

Based on the breakdown into 12 main groups, the highest inflation rate in October was measured for "housing, water and energy" (7.4 %). The lowest inflation rate was measured for “clothing and footwear” and "recreation and culture" (0.6 %).

The main group with the largest upward effect on inflation in October was "housing, water and energy" with an effect on inflation of 0.8 percentage point. The largest downward effect was measured for "recreation and culture" (-0.3 percentage point).

Inflation and effect on inflation for the overall HICP and 12 main groups

Product group Weight (‰) Inflation on annual basis (%) Effect on inflation (percentage point)
HICP HICP-CT
Aug/18 Sep/18 Oct/18 Oct/18 Aug/18 Sep/18 Oct/18
0 Total expenditure 1000.0 2.6 2.8 3.2 3.1      
1 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 164.1 1.8 2.6 2.6 2.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1
2 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 48.8 4.9 5.0 4.9 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
3 Clothing and footwear 54.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
4 Housing, water and energy 165.9 5.0 5.3 7.4 8.4 0.5 0.5 0.8
5 Interior decoration and household appliances 74.8 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
6 Health 77.2 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
7 Transport 122.2 6.0 5.7 6.2 5.2 0.5 0.4 0.4
8 Communication 32.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
9 Recreation and culture 90.7 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.6 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
10 Education 5.1 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
11 Hotels, cafés and restaurants 79.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
12 Various goods and services 85.3 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.6 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2

Inflation according to specific aggregates

The overall HICP can be broken down into five specific aggregates which together form the total expenditure.

  • The inflation rate for fuels and energy sources has gone up. It was running at 17.2 % in October compared to 13.3 % in September. Prices increased on average by 5.0% compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 8.3 %.
  • Inflation for processed food products stood at 3.4 % in October compared to 3.0 % in September and 3.2 % in August. Prices increased on average by 0.1% compared to September.
  • Inflation for unprocessed food (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish) amounts to 2.4 % in October compared to 3.2 % in September and 1.2 % in August. Prices increased on average by 0.1% compared to September. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 1.3 %.
  • The inflation for non-energy industrial goods was running at 1.0 % in October, unchanged from September. Prices increased on average by 0.1 % compared to September.
  • Inflation for services was running at 1.5 % in October, also unchanged from September. Prices increased on average by 0.2 % compared to September.

Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) amounts to 1.6% in October and remains unchanged from September, August and July. Average core inflation over the last 12 months has also been 1.6%. Prices of this subaggregate increased on average by 0.1% compared to the previous month.

Inflation according to specific aggregates

Specific aggregates Weight (‰) Inflation on annual basis (%) 12-month average (%) Monthly change
Aug/18 Sep/18 Oct/18 Oct/18 Oct/18
Total expenditure 1000.0 2.6 2.8 3.2 2.2 0.7
Fuels and energy sources 99.5 13.3 13.3 17.2 8.3 5.0
Processed food products 134.6 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.4 0.1
Unprocessed food 78.3 1.2 3.2 2.4 1.3 0.1
Non-energy industrial goods 272.2 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.1
Services 415.4 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 0.2
HICP without energy and unprocessed food (core inflation) 822.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.1

Effect of sub-indices on inflation

The largest upward effect on inflation was caused by domestic heating oil and motor fuels, both with an impact of 0.48 percentage point. The impact of gas on inflation was 0.25 percentage point. Electricity provided an effect of 0.18 percentage point. Finally, tobacco provided an effect of 0.11 percentage point.

Sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation

Sub-index Weight (‰) Effect on inflation (percentage point)
2018 Oct/18
04.5.3 Domestic heating oil 16.5 0.48
07.2.2 Motor fuels 33.4 0.48
04.5.2 Gas 16.3 0.25
04.5.1 Electricity 32.4 0.18
02.2.0 Tobacco 29.3 0.11

The largest downward effect on inflation came from housing rent (-0.14 percentage point). Clothing and meat provided an effect of -0.12 percentage point. Restaurants, cafés and similar services and cultural services had an effect of -0.10 percentage point. Finally, telecommunication provided an effect of -0.08 percentage point.

Sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation

Sub-index Weight (‰) Effect on inflation (percentage point)
2018 Oct/18
04.1.0 Housing rent 62.3 -0.14
03.1.2 Clothing 42.4 -0.12
01.1.2 Meat 41.9 -0.12
11.1.1 Restaurants, cafés and similar services 67.9 -0.10
09.4.2 Cultural services 15.3 -0.10
08.3.0 Telecommunication 30.0 -0.08

Comparison with neighbouring countries

Since the HICP of the neighbouring countries will not be published until later, comparisons can only be made for the month of September.

In September, inflation in Belgium was running at 2.8%, up from the 2.6% registered in August. The Netherlands registered an inflation rate of 1.6% in September; a decrease compared to an inflation rate of 2.1% in August. Inflation in France amounted to 2.5% in September, also a decrease compared to 2.6% in August. Inflation in Germany amounted to 2.2% in September, an increase compared to 1.9% in August.

hicp2018-10b_en.png

Belgium's inflation rate based on the HICP-CT stood at 2.7% in September, up from a rate of 2.5% in August. In Germany, this inflation amounted to 2.2%, just like the regular HICP inflation. In France, inflation decreased from 1.9% in August to 1.8% in September. Inflation in the Netherlands in September amounted to 1.1%, also down from 1.4% in August.hicp2018-10c_en.png

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Inflation calculated based on harmonised index of consumer prices by group of products and services, last 12 months

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Doel en korte beschrijving

De geharmoniseerde consumptieprijsindex (HICP) is een economische indicator de prijsevolutie van goederen en diensten, gekocht door huishoudens, die doorheen de tijd te meten. De HICP maakt dan ook een vergelijkbare meting van inflatie mogelijk in de eurozone, de EU, de Europese Economische Ruimte en voor alle andere landen inclusief kandidaat Lidstaten voor de Europese Unie. De HICP wordt berekend op een geharmoniseerde wijze en op basis van gemeenschappelijke concepten. Ze is de officiële meting van inflatie in de eurozone voor monetaire doeleinden en om de convergentiecriteria zoals vastgelegd in het Verdrag van Maastricht te beoordelen..

Populatie

Uiteindelijke gezinsuitgaven van gezinnen die op Belgisch grondgebied wonen.

Frequentie

Maandelijks.

Timing publicatie

Resultaten beschikbaar 3 dagen na de referentieperiode

Definities

Geharmoniseerde prijsindex (GICP) : Het geharmoniseerde indexcijfer van de consumptieprijzen (GICP) werd in 1997 opgericht om over een vergelijkbare meting van de inflatie tussen de deelnemende landen uit de toekomstige eurozone te beschikken. Sinds het begin van de euro is het GICP één van de belangrijkste meetinstrumenten van de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) bij het voeren van haar monetaire beleid. De opgenomen prijzen zijn de prijzen zoals ze werkelijk door de consumenten worden gedragen inclusief bv. de belastingen op de producten, zoals de belasting op de toegevoegde waarde, en houden rekening met de koopjesperiodes.

Inflatie : Inflatie wordt gedefinieerd als de verhouding tussen de waarde van het indexcijfer van de consumptieprijzen van een gegeven maand en het indexcijfer van dezelfde maand het jaar voordien. De inflatie meet dus het tempo waarin het algemene niveau van de prijzen evolueert.

COICOP ; COICOP is een nomenclatuur ontwikkeld door de Verenigde Naties welke tot doel heeft om individuele consumptie uitgaven van gezinnen te classificeren volgens gebruiksdoel.

Geharmoniseerd indexcijfer met constante belastingvoeten : Het geharmoniseerd indexcijfer van de consumptieprijzen met constante belastingvoeten is afgeleid van de HICP en wordt berekend door het niveau van indirecte belastingen (hoofdzakelijk accijnzen en BTW) constant te houden ten opzichte van het niveau dat in december van het jaar voordien werd waargenomen. Dit indexcijfer laat toe het maximum effect op de inflatie te meten bij wijzigingen in de belastingen door te veronderstellen dat deze rechtstreeks en integraal worden doorberekend op de eindprijs die wordt betaald door de consumenten.

Weging : Gewicht in de korf van goederen en diensten bepaald door de resultaten van de nationale rekeningen (uitgaven optiek) en die van het huishoudbudgetonderzoek.

Inflatie met constante belastingvoeten : Inflatie wordt gedefinieerd als de verhouding tussen de waarde van het indexcijfer van de consumptieprijzen van een gegeven maand en het indexcijfer van dezelfde maand het jaar voordien. De inflatie meet dus het tempo waarin het algemene niveau van de prijzen evolueert.

Opmerkingen

Opmerking betreffende tijdigheid van de geharmoniseerd indexcijfer van de consumptieprijzen (HICP) - De HICP wordt telkens gepubliceerd op de 3de werkdag van de maand met uitzondering van de maanden januari (5de werkdag) en februari (14ste werkdag).

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