Consumer price index of July 2022
- Inflation falls slightly from 9.65% to 9.62% in July.
- The consumer price index this month increases by 1.01 points or 0.83%.
- Inflation based on the health index has increased to 9.07% from 8.72%.
- The smoothed health index now stands at 118.39 points. The central index for public service and social benefits, set at 118.36 points, was therefore exceeded.
- The high inflation this month, as in recent months, is largely due to high energy prices. Energy currently has an inflation rate of 49.11% and accounts for 4.34 percentage points of the total inflation.
- Furthermore, inflation for food products has also sharply increased in recent months. Inflation for food products (including alcoholic beverages) stands at 9.24% this month, The contribution of food products to inflation currently amounts to 1.82 percentage points.
- Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stands at 5.49% in July, compared to 5.07% in June. A consequence of increased inflation for processed food and services.
- The main price increases in July concerned airplane tickets, hotel rooms, fire insurance, meat, electricity, dairy products, domestic heating oil, the purchases of vehicles and road tax. However, motor fuels, city trips, alcoholic beverages and private rents had a decreasing effect on the index.
The inflation rate in July was 9.62% compared to 9.65% in June and 8.97% in May. Inflation based on the health index amounted to 9.07% this month compared to 8.72% in June and 8.34% in May. Inflation without energy rose to 5.76% compared to 5.26% in June and 4.53% in May. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stands at 5.49% in July, compared to 5.07% in June and 4.43% in May.
Inflation for services has risen from 4.65% to 5.08%. Inflation for rents increased from 3.60% to 3.74%. Inflation for food products (including alcoholic beverages) stands at 9.24% this month, compared to 8.44% last month. This inflation has sharply increased in recent months. In November, it was still 0.47%. Inflation for oils, fish, dairy products, bread and cereals and meat has sharply increased in recent months. Inflation for oils stands this month at 21.3%. In November, it was still 3.6%. For fish, inflation is now 11.4% compared to -0.4% in November. Inflation for dairy products amounts to 13.6% this month compared to 0.6% in November. For bread and cereals, it stands this month at 11.4% compared to 1.7% in November. Inflation for meat amounts this month to 9.8% compared to 0.8% in November.
The sharp increase in inflation since autumn 2021 is largely due to energy products. Energy inflation is now running at 49.11%, compared to 55.99% in June and 56.80% in May. Electricity is now 44.7% more expensive than a year ago. Natural gas is 97.0% more expensive than in July last year. The price of domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, increased by 68.9% in one year. Motor fuels are 29.3% more expensive than last year.
The high inflation is mainly due to the high energy prices. Energy currently has an inflation rate of 49.11% and accounts for 4.34 percentage points of the total inflation. Food, with an inflation rate of 9.24%, contributes 1.82 percentage points.
The price of natural gas has increased by 1.0% on average compared to the previous month. Prices for electricity have gone up by 1.7% on average this month.
Some products and services that rose sharply in price compared to July last year are:
|Domestic heating oil||68.9%|
|Other edible oils than olive oil (including frying oil)||30.2%|
|Other fuels (LPG)||28.1%|
Some products and services that fell sharply in price compared to July last year are:
|Other information processing equipment (e.g. smart watch)||-6.5%|
|Mobile telephone services||-5.6%|
|Recording media (a.o. memory card)||-5.5%|
The main group with the largest upward effect[i] on inflation in July was ‘Housing, water, energy’ with an effect on inflation of 2.73 percentage points. The largest downward effect was measured for “Clothing and footwear” with -0.67 percentage points.
The main group with the largest contribution[ii] to inflation is ‘Housing, water and energy’ with 3.87 percentage points. The lowest contribution to inflation comes from the group ‘Clothing and footwear’, with -0.08 percentage points.
The first inflation estimate according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP flash estimate) for Belgium amounts to 10.4% for July 2022.
Comment on the level of the indices
The consumer price index has increased by 1.01 points or 0.83% in July 2022 and now amounts to 123.05 points, compared to 122.04 points in June 2022 (2013=100). The health index has gone up by 1.33 points to 122.35 points in July, compared to 121.02 points in June. The smoothed health index now stands at 118.39 points. The central index for public service and social benefits, set at 118.36 points, was therefore exceeded. This means that social security benefits and pensions will be raised by 2% in August. Wages in the public sector will be indexed by 2% in September. This is the fifth exceeding of the central index in 11 months. Wages and salaries in the private sector are also linked to the smoothed index, but the timing of indexation depends on the sectoral collective agreement. The last time the central index was exceeded was in April 2022. The next central index for public service and social benefits is set at 120.73 points.
The main price increases in July concerned airplane tickets, hotel rooms, fire insurance, meat, electricity, dairy products, domestic heating oil, the purchases of vehicles and road tax. However, motor fuels, city trips, alcoholic beverages and private rents had a decreasing effect on the index.
The most important trends this month are:
|Airplane tickets||+0.285 points||Motor fuels||-0.220 points|
|Hotel rooms||+0.110 points||Citry trips||-0.045 points|
|Fire insurance||+0.090 points||Alcoholic beverages||-0.030 points|
|Meat||+0.085 points||Private rent||-0.025 points|
|Milk, cheese and eggs||+0.070 points|
|Liquid fuels||+0.065 points|
|Purchase of vehicles||+0.060 points|
|Road taxes||+0.060 points|
Airplane tickets became on average 42.8% more expensive in July. Prices for hotel rooms have gone up by 14.4% on average this month. Fire insurance prices rose by an average of 5.3% this month. The price of meat has gone up by 1.8% on average this month. In July, electricity prices rose by an average of 1.7%. Dairy products became on average 2.7% more expensive. The price of domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, increased by 4.0% in July. Prices for the purchase of vehicles have increased by an average of 0.7% this month. Road taxes became on average 6.2% more expensive.
Motor fuels have become on average 4.3% less expensive this month. Prices of city trips have decreased on average by 2.1%. In July, alcoholic beverages registered an average price decrease of 1.4%. Private rent decreased in price by 0.3% on average.
|2013 = 100||April||May||June||July|
|Consumer price index||120.09||121.01||122.04||123.05|
|Smoothed health index*||116.52||117.02||117.58||118.39|
|* defined in the law of 23 April 2015 on the promotion of employment (Belgian Official Journal of 27 April 2015)|
[i] The effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall CPI).
[ii] The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.