- Belgium's inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices was running at 0.2% in October compared to 0.6% in September. Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) stands at 1.5% in October.
- The inflation rate based on the consumer price index (CPI) for October stood at 0.5% compared to 0.8% in September.
- The sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation were tobacco and restaurants, cafés and similar services.
- Most of the downward pressure on inflation in October came from gas, domestic heating oil and motor fuels.
- The harmonised index of consumer prices for the EU Member states of October will be published by Eurostat on 15th November.
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Inflation of the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP)[1] amounted to 0.2% in October compared to 0.6% in September. Inflation based on the harmonised index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT)[2] was running at 0.1% in October, down from 0.5% in September. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the HICP-CT is largely due to the changes in excise duties on motor fuels and tobacco. These increases are not taken into account in the HICP-CT.
Inflation and effect on inflation for the 12 main groups
Based on the breakdown into 12 main groups, the highest inflation rate in October was measured for "Alcoholic beverages and tobacco" (3.5%). The lowest inflation rate was measured for "Housing, water and energy" (-3.6%).
The main groups with the largest upward impact on inflation in October were “Alcoholic beverages and tobacco”, “Recreation and culture”, “Hotels, cafés and restaurants” and “Various goods and services” (0.2 percentage point each). The largest downward effect was measured for “Housing, water and energy” (-0.8 percentage point).
Inflation[3] and effect[4] on inflation for the overall HICP and 12 main groups
| Product group | Weight (‰) | Inflation on annual basis (%) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HICP | HICP-CT | ||||||||
| Aug/19 | Sep/19 | Oct/19 | Oct/19 | Aug/19 | Sep/19 | Oct/19 | |||
| 0 | Total expenditure | 1000.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |||
| 1 | Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 165.0 | 1.0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 2 | Alcoholic beverages and tobacco | 49.7 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| 3 | Clothing and footwear | 53.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | Housing, water and energy | 162.8 | -1.1 | -1.4 | -3.6 | -3.6 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.8 |
| 5 | Interior decoration and household appliances | 74.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6 | Health | 81.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 7 | Transport | 123.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 8 | Communication | 32.9 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 9 | Recreation and culture | 87.8 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| 10 | Education | 5.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 11 | Hotels, cafés and restaurants | 80.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| 12 | Various goods and services | 83.7 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Inflation according to specific aggregates
The overall HICP can be broken down into five specific aggregates which together form the total expenditure.
- The inflation rate for fuels and energy sources has gone down for the seventh month in a row. It was running at -9.0% in October compared to -5.3% in September. Prices increased on average by 0.9% compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 2.3%.
- Inflation for processed food products stood at 1.5% in October compared to 1.7% in September and 1.8% in August. Prices decreased on average by 0.1% compared to September.
- Inflation for unprocessed food (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish) amounted to -2.5% in October and September compared to 0.7% in August. Prices increased on average by 0.4% compared to September. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is -0.2%.
- Inflation for non-energy industrial goods was running at 1.0% in October, compared to 0.9% in September. Prices increased on average by 0.2% compared to the previous month.
- Inflation for services has increased to 1.8% in October compared to 1.6% in September and 1.7% in August. Prices increased on average by 0.3% compared to the previous month.
Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) amounted to 1.5 % in October, a slight increase compared to 1.4% in September. Average core inflation over the last 12 months amounts to 1.6%. Prices of this subaggregate increased on average by 0.2% compared to the previous month.
Inflation according to specific aggregates
| Specific aggregates | Weight (‰) | Inflation on annual basis (%) | 12-month average (%) | Monthly change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug/19 | Sep/19 | Oct/19 | Oct/19 | Oct/19 | ||
| Total expenditure | 1000.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| Fuels and energy sources | 97.4 | -4.6 | -5.3 | -9.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| Processed food products | 171.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -0.1 |
| Unprocessed food | 43.2 | 0.7 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -0.2 | 0.4 |
| Non-energy industrial goods | 267.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Services | 420.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| HICP without energy and unprocessed food (core inflation) | 859.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.2 |
Effect of sub-indices on inflation
The largest upward effect on inflation was caused by tobacco (0.16 percentage point). Restaurants, cafés and similar services had also an effect of 0.16 percentage point.
Sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation
| Sub-index | Weight (‰) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Oct/19 | ||
| 02.2.0 | Tobacco | 30.5 | 0.16 |
| 11.1.1 | Restaurants, cafés and similar services | 68.4 | 0.16 |
The largest downward effect on inflation came from gas (-0.30 percentage point). Domestic heating oil provided an effect of -0.28 percentage point. Motor fuels provided an effect of -0.24 percentage point.
Sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation
| Sub-index | Weight (‰) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Oct/19 | ||
| 07.2.2 | Gas | 17.2 | -0.30 |
| 04.5.2 | Domestic heating oil | 12.5 | -0.28 |
| 04.5.3 | Motor fuels | 34.9 | -0.24 |
Comparison between Belgium and the neighbouring countries
Since the HICP of the neighbouring countries will not be published until later, comparisons can only be made for the month of September.
In September, inflation in Belgium was running at 0.6%, down from the 0.9% registered in August. The Netherlands registered an inflation rate of 2.7% in September; this was a decrease compared to an inflation rate of 3.1% in August. In September, inflation in France amounted to 1.1%, a decrease compared to an inflation rate of 1.3% in August. Inflation in Germany was running at 0.9% in September, a slight decrease from the inflation rate of 1.0% in August.
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Belgium's inflation rate based on the HICP-CT stood at 0.5% in September, down from a rate of 0.8% in August. In Germany, this inflation amounted to 0.9% and was almost equal to the regular HICP inflation. In France, this inflation has decreased to 1.0% in September compared to 1.2% in August. This inflation in the Netherlands in September amounted to 1.4%, down from 1.8% in August.
/hicp2019-10c_en.png)
[1] In addition to the national consumer price index (CPI), Statbel also calculates a European harmonised consumer price index (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HICP). The HICP is used to compare inflation rates in the EU Member States. To this end, the applied expenditure approach and methods have been coordinated as much as possible and laid down in European regulations. The results of the CPI and HICP are not the same. This is mainly due to a different weighting and composition of the basket of goods and services on which these indices are based.
The HICP is also used by the European Central Bank in its monetary policy. Additionally, the HICP is used to determine to what extent a Member State meets the inflation criteria set in the Treaty on European Union.
Differences between the HICP and the current CPI are:
- The weighting of the basket of goods and services in the HICP is mainly based on the national accounts. At lower detailed levels the Household Budget Survey is used. The CPI mostly uses the Household Budget Survey at all levels.
- The reference population of the HICP consists of private households (including tourists in Belgium) and institutional households (e.g. retirement homes and nursing homes). In the CPI, this population currently consists of private households with a reference person under a maximum age.
- The HICP uses the concept of domestic expenditure: expenditure in Belgium by the reference population. The CPI uses the concept of national expenditure: expenditure by the reference population irrespective of the location.
- Seasonal adjustment is not applied in the HICP, but is applied in the CPI to travels abroad and stays in holiday villages.
- Sales periods in the CPI are systematically spread over 6 months, but are included in the same month in the HICP.
- Current prices for domestic heating oil are used in the HICP calculation. A weighted 12-month average is applied in the CPI calculation.
[2] The HICP-CT is calculated in the same way as the regular HICP, but the prices in this index are calculated based on constant tax rates. This index therefore reflects the theoretically potential effect of changes in indirect tax rates (such as VAT or excise duties) on measured inflation. However, this is a theoretical effect, since it presupposes that tax changes are immediately and entirely reflected in prices paid by consumers.
[3] Inflation on annual basis measures the price changes between the current month and the same month of the year before. A 12-month average compares the average HICP of the last 12 months with the average of the previous 12 months. A monthly change compares the price levels of the last two months.
[4] An effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including the sub-index in the HICP. The effect not only takes the weight of the sub-index into account, but it also takes into account whether the sub-index inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall HICP).