Consumer price index - April 2023
- Inflation decreased from 6.67% to 5.60% in April.
- The consumer price index decreased by 0.85 points or 0.67% this month.
- Inflation based on the health index has fallen from 7.35% to 5.95%.
- The smoothed health index amounted to 124.79 points in April.
- Inflation for food products has sharply increased in the last year. Food inflation (including alcoholic beverages) now stands at 16.64%, compared to 17.02% in March. The contribution of food products to inflation currently amounts to 3.19 percentage points.
- Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stands at 8.28% in April, compared to 8.57% in March.
- The most significant price increases in April were registered for motor fuels, vegetables, fruit, meat, liquid fuels and hotel rooms. However, electricity, natural gas and travels abroad and city trips have had a decreasing effect on the index.
Inflation amounts to 5.60% in April compared to 6.67% in March and 6.62% in February. Inflation based on the health index decreased to 5.95% this month compared to 7.35% in March and 6.84% in February. Inflation without energy decreased to 9.02%, compared to 9.25% in March and 8.87% in February. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stood at 8.28% in April, compared to 8.57% in March and 8.28% in February.
Comment on inflation
With regard to energy, we see a new significant decrease in inflation this month. It now stands at -17.08%, compared to -10.11% last month and 7.93% in February. For electricity, inflation is currently at -20.4% compared to -2.3% last month. It was still at 35.5% in December. For natural gas, it went from -45.6% last month to -62.1% this month. In December, it was still 73.1%. Compared to last month, prices for natural gas decreased by 32.7% and those for electricity by 18.5%. Prices for domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, have increased by 38.0% in a year. Motor fuels cost 4.6% less than in April last year and increased by 2.1% this month compared to the previous month.
Inflation for services has decreased to 6.80% down from 7.06%. Inflation for rents has increased to 6.22% from 6.11%. Food inflation (including alcoholic beverages) now stands at 16.64% compared to 17.02% last month. This inflation has increased sharply in the recent year. In April last year, it was still 5.09%.
In particular, inflation for oils, fish, dairy products, bread and cereals and meat has sharply increased in the last year. Inflation for oils stands this month at 24.4%. In April 2022, it was still 13.2%. For fish, inflation is now 15.5% compared to 6.8% in April 2022. Inflation for dairy products amounts to 26.2% this month compared to 5.8% in April 2022. For bread and cereals, inflation stands at 17.2% this month compared to 8.2% in April last year. Inflation for meat amounts to 13.8% this month compared to 4.8% in April 2022.
The decrease in inflation in recent months is associated with lower energy prices. Energy inflation goes from -10.11% in March 2023 to -17.08% in April 2023 and accounts for -2.36 percentage points to total inflation. With an inflation of 16.64%, food products account for 3.19 percentage points.
The price of natural gas has decreased by 32.7% on average compared to the previous month. The price of electricity has decreased by 18.5% on average this month.
Some products and services that rose sharply in price compared to April last year are:
| Upward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Wood and other solid fuels | 49.3% |
| Domestic heating oil | 38.0% |
| Whole milk | 34.6% |
| Olive oil | 33.3% |
| Sugar | 32.0% |
| Eggs | 30.6% |
| Other edible oils than olive oil (e.g. frying oil) | 30.6% |
| Skimmed and semi-skimmed milk | 29.4% |
Some products and services that dropped sharply in price compared to April last year are:
| Downward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Natural gas | -62.1% |
| Other fuels (LPG) | -32.6% |
| Electricity | -20.4% |
| Televisions | -12.8% |
| Petroleum gas | -9.8% |
| Diesel | -9.0% |
The main group with the largest upward effect [i] on inflation in April was “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” with an effect of 2.50 percentage points. The largest downward effect was measured for “Housing, water and energy” (-3.07 percentage points).
The main group with the largest contribution [ii] to inflation is “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” with 3.07 percentage points. The lowest contribution to inflation was registered by the main group “Housing, water and energy”, with -1.42 percentage points.
The first inflation estimate according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP flash estimate) for Belgium amounts to 3.3% for April 2023.
Comment on the level of the indices
The consumer price index fell by 0.85 points or 0.67% in April 2023 and now stands at 126.82 points, compared to 127.67 points in March 2023 (2013=100). The health index has decreased by 1.10 points to 126.70 points in April, compared to 127.80 points in March. The smoothed health index amounted to 124.79 points in April. The next central index for public service and social benefits is set at 125.60 points.
The most significant price increases in April were registered for motor fuels, vegetables, fruit, meat, liquid fuels and hotel rooms. However, electricity, natural gas and travels abroad and city trips have had a decreasing effect on the index.
The most important trends this month are:
| Upward: | Effect: | Downward: | Effect: |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motor fuels | +0.105 points | Electricity | -0.870 points |
| Vegetables | +0.100 points | Natural gas | -0.585 points |
| Fruit | +0.090 points | Travels abroad and city trips | -0.100 points |
| Meat | +0.080 points | ||
| Liquid fuels | +0.050 points | ||
| Hotel rooms | +0.050 points |
Prices for motor fuels increased by 2.1% on average this month. The price of vegetables increased in April by 3.9% on average. Fruit have increased by 4.7% on average. Meat was on average 1.6% more expensive this month. Domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, became on average 2.7% more expensive in April. Hotel rooms experienced a price increase of 5.9% on average.
Prices for electricity and natural gas decreased this month by 18.5% and 32.7% respectively. Prices for travels abroad and city trips decreased by 4.6%.
| 2013 = 100 | January | February | March | April |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer price index | 127.84 | 126.95 | 127.67 | 126.82 |
| Inflation | 8.05% | 6.62% | 6.67% | 5.60% |
| Health index | 128.00 | 126.86 | 127.80 | 126.70 |
| Smoothed health index* | 125.26 | 125.00 | 125.08 | 124.79 |
| * defined in the law of 23 April 2015 on the promotion of employment (Belgian Official Journal of 27 April 2015) | ||||
[i] The effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall CPI).
[ii] The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.