The provisional results for the monthly indicators based on the Labour Force Survey of Statbel, the Belgian statistical office, show again, after the positive evolutions of the previous month, slightly less favourable results. The employment rate of people aged 20-64 slightly decreases to 70.4%, while the unemployment rate increases again to 7.1%.
The employment rate stands at 70.4%
Based on provisional results from the Labour Force Survey, the employment rate of people aged 20-64 is estimated in July at 70.4%. This is a slight decrease compared to the month before, when the employment rate was, with 71,0%, the highest level achieved since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic.
At the beginning of 2021, a new European framework regulation came into force. This led to adjustments to the survey. Therefore, the employment rate of 2021 cannot simply be compared with the figures before 2021. One of the important changes: from this year on, people who are temporarily unemployed for more than three months are no longer counted among the employed, but among the unemployed or inactive, depending on the answers to the questions on job search and availability. In order to illustrate the impact of this changed treatment of the long-term temporarily unemployed, we calculate, in addition to the official employment rate, an alternative employment rate, whereby the long-term temporarily unemployed are, as before, classified as employed persons.
Since May 2021, we have seen the number of long-term temporarily unemployed begin to fall sharply, which has also narrowed the gap between the official and alternative employment rates. However, if all long-term temporarily unemployed people were counted as employed, the employment rate of 20-64 year-olds would be slightly higher and would be estimated at 70.7% in July.
The unemployment rate goes up again to 7.1%
After a fairly sharp drop in the unemployment rate of 15-64-year-olds last month, the estimate for July 2021 is again much higher at 7.1%. The figures for the coming months will show whether this high figure will be confirmed or whether it is a one-off increase. Note that the samples on which the monthly figures are based are much smaller than those of the quarterly figures and may therefore be subject to greater sampling fluctuations.
The changed treatment of the temporarily unemployed from 2021 onwards has hardly any impact now on the calculation of the unemployment rate. The so-called alternative unemployment rate differs only slightly from the official unemployment rate. This, too, is logically connected to the sharp decrease in the number of long-term temporarily unemployed.
Homeworking declines among employees, after relaxation of teleworking obligation
In the month of July, we see for the first time a clear impact of the relaxation of the recent governmental teleworking obligation. The share of the working population that sometimes or usually works from home is estimated at 37.4% in July. The decrease is mainly among employees. There, the percentage of homeworkers was 32.2% in July, whereas in the first half of 2021 it was usually over 40%.
Sharp decrease in working hours, due to holiday periods
In the figures on working hours and absences, we logically see a strong effect of the holiday periods in July. Many employed people report not having worked during the reference week due to leave, holidays or public holidays. On average, this was 1,200,000 employed people during the month of July. In addition, there are almost 1,000,000 employed people who have worked, but not the full reference week.
This effect of the holiday period is also visible in the average weekly working time. It amounts to 23.8 hours compared to 33.0 hours the month before.
Finally, the number of temporarily unemployed remains at approximately the same level as in the previous month. About 43,000 employed people were in temporary unemployment for part of the reference week and about 10,000 employed people were so for the entire reference week. Note that this is a different group from the long-term temporarily unemployed people mentioned at the beginning of this report. When the total uninterrupted duration of temporary unemployment amounts to a maximum of 3 months, the temporarily unemployed are, as before, still counted as employed.