Consumer price index of August 2019
- Inflation decreases from 1.42 % to 1.26 % in August, and is at its lowest level since October 2015.
- The consumer price index has decreased by 0.02 point or 0.02 % this month.
- Inflation based on the health index has declined from 1.52 % to 1.41 %.
- The smoothed health index is running at 106.83 points in August.
- The most significant price increases in August were registered for the purchase of vehicles and bundled telecommunication services. However, motor fuels, travels abroad, maintenance products and mobile telephone services have had a decreasing effect on the index.
The consumer price index is running at 108.94 points in August 2019. The index has decreased by 0.02 point over the month. Inflation has dropped from 1.42 % to 1.26 %. The health index remains stable this month and amounts to 109.07 points. Inflation based on the health index has fallen to 1.41 % from 1.52 %. The main upward pressure in August came from price increases for the purchase of vehicles and bundled telecommunication services. These increases were mainly offset by price decreases for motor fuels, travels abroad, maintenance products and mobile telephone services.
The consumer price index has fallen by 0.02 point or 0.02 % in August 2019 and now stands at 108.94 points, as against 108.96 points in July 2019 (2013 = 100).
The health index remains stable this month and amounts to 109.07 points. The smoothed health index is running at 106.83 points in August. The central index for public service and social benefits, set at 107.20 points, has therefore not been reached. The last time the central index was exceeded was in August 2018.
Products with the largest increasing effect in August were the purchase of vehicles and bundled telecommunication services. However, motor fuels, travels abroad, maintenance products and mobile telephone services have had the largest decreasing effect compared to last month. The most important trends this month are:
| Upward: | Effect: | Downward: | Effect: |
|---|---|---|---|
| Purchase of vehicles | +0.030 point | Motor fuels | -0.050 point |
| Bundled telecommunication services | +0.020 point | Travels abroad | -0.030 point |
| Maintenance products | -0.020 point | ||
| Mobile telephone services | -0.020 point |
The purchase of vehicles has become on average 0.4 % more expensive compared to last month. Prices of bundled telecommunication services have increased on average by 0.7 %.
Motor fuels have become on average 1.3 % less expensive this month. Prices of travels abroad have decreased on average by 1.6 %. Prices for maintenance products have fallen by 3.1 % on average. Mobile telephone services have become 2.8 % less expensive compared to last month.
Inflation is now running at 1.26 %, compared to 1.42 % in July and 1.73 % in June. Inflation based on the health index amounted to 1.41 % this month compared to 1.52 % in July and 1.88 % in June. Inflation without energy has increased to 1.64 % in August, compared to 1.62 % in July and 1.67% in June. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stands at 1.56 % in August, against 1.61 % in July and 1.71 % in June.
Food inflation is now running at 1.72 %, compared to 1.04 % last month and 0.64 % in June. Fresh fruit now costs 4.2 % more than in August 2018. Fresh vegetable prices are on the rise: 6.1 % on an annual basis. Fish and shellfish are 0.3 % more expensive than a year ago. Prices of non-alcoholic beverages have fallen by 0.2 % compared to August last year. Alcoholic beverages are 0.9 % more expensive than last year. Tobacco prices have gone up by 5.2 % compared to August last year. Energy inflation is now running at -2.00 %, compared to -0.32 % in July and 2.23 % in June. Electricity is now 0.2 % less expensive than a year ago. Natural gas now costs 11.6 % less than in August 2018. Prices for domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, have increased by 10.7 % in one year. Motor fuels are 4.4 % less expensive than last year. Inflation for services has gone down to 2.05 % from 2.30 %. Inflation for rents has slightly increased and now stands at 1.02 %, compared to 1.00 % in July.
The following products and services have registered the sharpest price increases compared to last year in August:
| Upward: | Inflation: |
|---|---|
| Newspapers | 16.0% |
| Postal mail | 12.5% |
| Domestic heating oil | 10.7% |
| Other tobacco products | 10.3% |
| Holiday villages and campings | 10.0% |
| Potatoes | 8.2% |
| Hotels and similar services | 7.9% |
| Frozen fish | 7.8% |
| Package holidays in Belgium | 6.7% |
| Magazines and periodicals | 6.6% |
| Food processing appliances (kitchen robot) | 6.5% |
| Fresh fish | 6.3% |
The following products and services have registered the sharpest price decreases compared to last year in August:
| Downward: | Inflation: |
|---|---|
| Other fuels (LPG) | -23.2% |
| Fresh shellfish | -17.5% |
| Natural gas | -11.6% |
| Mobile telephone services | -5.1% |
| Other information processing equipment (e.g. smart watch) | -5.1% |
| Eggs | -4.5% |
| Video equipment | -4.4% |
| Other recording media (memory card) | -4.2% |
| Petrol | -4.1% |
| Diesel | -4.1% |
| Coffee | -3.7% |
| Liquefied petroleum gas | -3.7% |
The main group with the largest upward effect[i] on inflation in August was "Hotels, cafés and restaurants" with an effect of 0.17 percentage point. The largest downward effect was measured for "Housing, water and energy" (-0.18 percentage point).
The main group with the largest contribution[ii] to inflation is "Food and non-alcoholic beverages" with 0.30 percentage point. The lowest contribution to inflation was registered by the main group "communication", with -0.03 percentage point.
| 2013 = 100 | May | June | July | August |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer price index | 108.93 | 108.87 | 108.96 | 108.94 |
| Inflation | 1.89% | 1.73% | 1.42% | 1.26% |
| Health index | 108.89 | 109.02 | 109.07 | 109.07 |
| Smoothed health index* | 106.74 | 106.80 | 106.81 | 106.83 |
| * defined in the law of 23 April 2015 on the promotion of employment (Belgian Official Journal of 27 April 2015) | ||||
The first inflation estimate according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP flash estimate[iii] for Belgium amounts to 0.9 % in August. The results of the HICP and the national consumer price index (CPI) are not the same. This is mainly due to conceptual differences in terms of weight source, reference population, spending concept, seasonal adjustment and moving average (smoothing)[iv].
[i] An effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall CPI).
[ii] The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.
[iii]The flash estimate of the Belgian HICP is an estimate of the inflation according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices. It is calculated by Statbel based on incomplete data for the reference period and is published by Eurostat at the end of the month. A couple of weeks later, Statbel calculates, based on exhaustive data, the final HICP that will be published by Eurostat and Statbel.
[iv] The main conceptual differences between the HICP and the CPI are:
- The weighting of the basket of goods and services in the HICP is mainly based on the national accounts. At lower detailed levels the Household Budget Survey is used. The CPI mostly uses the Household Budget Survey at all levels.
- The reference population of the HICP consists of private households (including tourists in Belgium) and institutional households (e.g. retirement homes and nursing homes). In the CPI, this population currently consists of private households with a reference person under a maximum age.
- The HICP uses the concept of domestic expenditure: expenditure in Belgium by the reference population. The CPI uses the concept of national expenditure: expenditure by the reference population irrespective of the location.
- Seasonal adjustment is not applied in the HICP, but is applied in the CPI to travels abroad and stays in holiday villages.
- Sales periods in the CPI are systematically spread over 6 months, but are included in the same month in the HICP.
- Current prices for domestic heating oil are used in the HICP calculation. A weighted 12-month average is applied in the CPI calculation.