Consumer price index of November 2019
- Inflation decreases from 0.48 % to 0.39 % in November.
- The consumer price index this month increases by 0.07 point or 0.06 %.
- Inflation based on the health index has declined from 0.67 % to 0.48 %.
- The smoothed health index amounted to 106.73 points in November.
- The most significant price increases in November were registered for travels abroad, alcoholic beverages and the purchase of vehicles. However, holiday villages, personal care products and airplane tickets have had a decreasing effect on the index.
The consumer price index is running at 108.90 points in November 2019. It has increased by 0.07 point over the month. Inflation has dropped from 0.48 % to 0.39 %. The health index has gained 0.02 point to 109.00 points. Inflation based on the health index has fallen to 0.48 % from 0.67 %. The most significant price increases in November were registered for travels abroad, alcoholic beverages and the purchase of vehicles. These increases were mainly offset by price decreases for holiday villages, personal care products and airplane tickets.
The consumer price index rose by 0.07 point or 0.06 % in November 2019 and now stands at 108.90 points, compared to 108.83 points in October 2019 (2013=100).
The health index has increased by 0.02 point to 109.00 points in November, compared to 108.98 points in October. The smoothed health index amounted to 106.73 points in November. The central index for public service and social benefits, set at 107.20 points, has therefore not been reached. The last time the central index was exceeded was in August 2018.
The largest upward pressure in November came from travels abroad, alcoholic beverages and the purchase of vehicles.
However, holiday villages, personal care products and airplane tickets provided the largest downward pressure compared to last month. The most important trends this month are:
| Upward: | Effect: | Downward: | Effect: |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travels abroad | +0.085 point | Holiday villages | -0.040 point |
| Alcoholic beverages | +0.035 point | Personal care products | -0.035 point |
| Purchase of vehicles | +0.035 point | Airplane tickets | -0.030 point |
Travels abroad have, after seasonal adjustment, become on average 4.8 % more expensive compared to last month. Prices for alcoholic beverages have increased on average by 2.1 % this month. The purchase of vehicles became on average 0.5 % more expensive.
After seasonal adjustment, stays in holiday villages cost on average 6.3 % less. Prices for personal care products have decreased on average by 2.7 %. Airplane tickets have become 2.4 % less expensive this month.
Inflation is now running at 0.39 %, compared to 0.48 % in October and 0.80 % in September. Inflation based on the health index amounted to 0.48 % this month compared to 0.67 % in October and 0.99 % in September. Inflation without energy decreased to 1.35 % in November, compared to 1.37 % in October and 1.25 % in September. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stands at 1.46 % in November, against 1.55 % in October and 1.40 % in September.
Food inflation is now running at 0.24 %, compared to -0.06 % last month and 0.12 % in September. Fresh fruit now costs 2.1 % less than in November 2018. Fresh vegetables are cheaper: 4.0 % on an annual basis. Fish and shellfish are 0.1 % less expensive than a year ago. However, meat is 2.1% more expensive on an annual basis. On average, non-alcoholic beverages cost 0.5 % less than in November last year. Alcoholic beverages are 0.7 % more expensive than last year. Tobacco prices have gone up by 5.0 % compared to November last year.
Energy inflation is now running at -7.29 %, compared to -6.66 % last month and -2.93 % in September. Electricity is now 8.1 % less expensive than a year ago. Natural gas is 17.5 % less expensive than last year in November. Prices for domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, have decreased by 1.5 % in one year. Motor fuels are 4.0 % less expensive than last year. Inflation for services has declined to 2.08 % from 2.13 %. Inflation for rents remains unchanged compared to last month and stands at 1.18 %
The following products and services have registered the sharpest price increases compared to last year in November:
| Upward: | Inflation: |
|---|---|
| Postal mail | 12.5% |
| Frozen fish | 12.1% |
| Newspapers | 11.8% |
| Other tobacco products (e.g. loose tobacco) | 9.8% |
| Frozen vegetables other than potatoes | 9.7% |
| Software | 7.7% |
| Educational text books | 7.5% |
| Package holidays in Belgium | 6.6% |
| Contribution to national health services | 6.1% |
| Wine from other fruits (cider) | 5.6% |
| Travel insurance | 5.6% |
| Jewellery | 5.5% |
The following products and services have registered the sharpest price decreases compared to last year in November:
| Downward: | Inflation: |
|---|---|
| Natural gas | -17.5% |
| Fresh shellfish | -9.7% |
| Electricity | -8.1% |
| Other fuels (LPG) | -6.8% |
| Diesel | -6.5% |
| Mobile telephone services | -5.3% |
| Frozen shellfish | -5.0% |
| Other recording media (memory card) | -4.8% |
| Video equipment | -4.7% |
| Washing machines, tumble dryers, dishwashers | -4.4% |
| Fresh vegetables, excluding potatoes | -4.0% |
| Mobile phones | -3.6% |
The main group with the largest upward effect[i] on inflation in November was “Recreation and culture” with an effect of 0.21 percentage point. The largest downward effect was measured for “Housing, water and energy” (-0.74 percentage point).
The main group with the largest contribution[ii] to inflation is “Recreation and culture” with 0.22 percentage point. The lowest contribution to inflation was registered by the main group “Housing, water and energy”, with -0.53 percentage point.
| 2013 = 100 | August | September | October | November |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer price index | 108.94 | 108.44 | 108.83 | 108.90 |
| Inflation | 1.26% | 0.80% | 0.48% | 0.39% |
| Health index | 109.07 | 108.58 | 108.98 | 109.00 |
| Smoothed health index* | 106.83 | 106.76 | 106.75 | 106.73 |
| * defined in the law of 23 April 2015 on the promotion of employment (Belgian Official Journal of 27 April 2015) | ||||
The first inflation estimate according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP flash estimate[iii]) for Belgium amounts to 0.36 % in November. The difference between the HICP and the national consumer price index (CPI) is mainly due to conceptual differences in terms of weight source, reference population, spending concept, seasonal adjustment and moving average (smoothing)[iv]
[i]An effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall CPI).
[ii]The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.
[iii]The flash estimate of the Belgian HICP is an estimate of the inflation according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices. It is calculated by Statbel based on incomplete data for the reference period and is published by Eurostat at the end of the month. A couple of weeks later, Statbel calculates, based on exhaustive data, the final HICP that will be published by Eurostat and Statbel.
[i]The main conceptual differences between the HICP and the CPI are
- The weighting of the basket of goods and services in the HICP is mainly based on the national accounts. At lower detailed levels the Household Budget Survey is used. The CPI mostly uses the Household Budget Survey at all levels.
- The reference population of the HICP consists of private households (including tourists in Belgium) and institutional households (e.g. retirement homes and nursing homes). In the CPI, this population consists of private households with a reference person under a maximum age.
- The HICP uses the concept of domestic expenditure: expenditure in Belgium by the reference population. The CPI uses the concept of national expenditure: expenditure by the reference population irrespective of the location.
- Seasonal adjustment is not applied in the HICP, but is applied in the CPI to travels abroad and stays in holiday villages.
- Sales periods in the CPI are systematically spread over 6 months, but are included in the same month in the HICP.
- Current prices for domestic heating oil are used in the HICP calculation. A weighted 12-month average is applied in the CPI calculation.