Consumer price index of October 2022
- Inflation in October has gone up from 11.27% to 12.27%, reaching its highest level since June 1975, when it stood at 12.50%.
- The consumer price index this month increases by 2.97 points or 2.37%.
- Inflation based on the health index has increased to 12.27% from 11.25%.
- The smoothed health index stood at 122.22 points in October. The central index for public service and social benefits, set at 120.73 points, was therefore exceeded.
- The high inflation this month, as in recent months, is largely due to high energy prices. Energy currently has an inflation rate of 63.03% and accounts for 5.95 percentage points of the total inflation.
- Furthermore, inflation for food products has also sharply increased in recent months. Inflation for food products (including alcoholic beverages) stands at 12.30% this month, The contribution of food products to inflation currently amounts to 2.37 percentage points.
- Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stood at 6.50% in October, compared to 6.21% in September. This is a result of increased inflation for processed food and services.
- The main price increases in October related to natural gas, electricity, motor fuels, meat, domestic heating oil, vegetables, clothing, dairy products, bread and cereals, fruit, private rents and restaurants and cafés. On the other hand, alcoholic beverages had a decreasing effect on the index.
Inflation was 12.27% in October compared to 11.27% in September and 9.94% in August. Inflation based on the health index amounts to 12.27% this month compared to 11.25% in September and 9.70% in August. Inflation without energy rose to 6.97% compared to 6.44% in September and 5.99% in August. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stood at 6.50% in October, compared to 6.21% in September and 5.74% in August.
Inflation for services has decreased from 5.38% to 5.22%. Inflation for rents now stands at 4.44%, up from 3.86%. Inflation for food products (including alcoholic beverages) stands at 12.30% this month, compared to 10.40% last month. This inflation has increased sharply in recent months. In November last year, it was still 0.47%. In particular, inflation for oils, fish, dairy products, bread and cereals and meat has sharply increased in recent months. Inflation for oils stands this month at 23.8%. In November, it was still 3.6%. For fish, inflation is now 11.8% compared to -0.4% in November. Inflation for dairy products amounts to 16.3% this month compared to 0.6% in November. For bread and cereals, it stands at 14.4% this month compared to 1.7% in November last year. Inflation for meat amounts to 12.5% this month compared to 0.8% in November 2021.
The sharp increase in inflation since autumn 2021 is largely due to energy products. Energy inflation is now running at 63.03%, compared to 60.54% last month and 49.81% in August. Electricity is now 84.7% more expensive than a year ago. Natural gas is 130.6% more expensive than in October 2016. The price of domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, has increased by 57.7% in one year. Motor fuels are 18.1% more expensive than last year.
The high inflation is mainly due to the high energy prices. Energy currently has an inflation rate of 63.03% and accounts for 5.95 percentage points of the total inflation. Food, with an inflation rate of 12.30%, contributes 2.37 percentage points.
The price of natural gas has increased by 23.4% on average compared to the previous month. Prices for electricity have gone up by 12.5% on average this month.
Some products and services that rose sharply in price compared to October last year are:
| Upward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Natural gas | 130.6% |
| Electricity | 84.7% |
| Domestic heating oil | 57.7% |
| Other edible oils than olive oil (e.g. frying oil) | 36.7% |
| Wood and other solid fuels | 31.9% |
| Butter | 26.3% |
| Diesel | 25.2% |
| Flour and cereals | 25.2% |
Some products and services that fell sharply in price compared to October last year are:
| Downward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Television set | -13.9% |
| Smartphones | -9.3% |
| Computers | -4.6% |
| Mobile telephone services | -4.6% |
| Other information processing equipment (e.g. smart watch) | -3.1% |
| Tumble dryer, washing machine and dishwasher | -2.0% |
| Accessories for audio and video equipment (e.g. headphones) | -1.6% |
| Software | -0.3% |
The main group with the largest upward effect[i] on inflation in October was ‘housing, water, energy’ with 4.60 percentage points. The largest downward effect was measured for “recreation and culture” with -0.72 percentage points.
The main group with the largest contribution[ii] to inflation is ‘Housing, water and energy’ with 5.93 percentage points. The lowest contribution to inflation is made by the main group ‘Communication’ with 0.00 percentage points.
The first inflation estimate according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP flash estimate) for Belgium amounts to 13.1% for October 2022.
Comment on the level of the indices
The consumer price index has increased by 2.97 point or 2.37% in October 2022 and now amounts to 128.21 points, compared to 125.24 points in September 2022 (2013=100). The health index has gained 3.00 points to 127.92 points in October, compared to 124.92 points in September. The smoothed health index stood at 122.22 points in October. The central index for public service and social benefits, set at 120.73 points, was therefore exceeded. This means that social security benefits and pensions will be raised by 2% in November. Wages in the public sector will be indexed by 2% in December. This is the fourth exceeding of the central index this year. Wages and salaries in the private sector are also linked to the smoothed index, but the timing of indexation depends on the sectoral collective agreement. The last time the central index was exceeded was in July 2022. The next central index for public service and social benefits is set at 123.14 points.
The main price increases in October related to natural gas, electricity, motor fuels, meat, domestic heating oil, vegetables, clothing, dairy products, bread and cereals, fruit, private rents and restaurants and cafés. However, alcoholic beverages have had a decreasing effect on the index.
The most important trends this month are:
| Upward: | Effect: | Downward: | Effect: |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas | +0.760 point | Alcoholic beverages | -0.155 point |
| Electricity | +0.705 point | ||
| Motor fuels | +0.310 point | ||
| Meat | +0.175 point | ||
| Domestic heating oil | +0.130 point | ||
| Vegetables | +0.095 point | ||
| Clothing | +0.090 point | ||
| Dairy products | +0.090 point | ||
| Bread and cereals | +0.085 point | ||
| Fruit | +0.085 point | ||
| Private rent | +0.075 point | ||
| Restaurants and cafés | +0.060 point |
Natural gas became 23.4% more expensive on average in October. Prices for electricity have gone up by 12.5% on average this month. The price of motor fuels has gone up by 6.8% on average this month. Meat has become on average 3.6% more expensive. The price of domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, increased by 8,1% on average. Vegetables have become on average 4.2% more expensive. Clothing became 1.7% more expensive on average this month. Prices for dairy products increased 3.4% on average this month. The price of bread and cereals and fruit rose by an average of 2.3% and 4.8% respectively this month. Private rents and restaurants and cafés both became 0.8% more expensive on average in October.
Alcoholic beverages were on average 6.9% less expensive over the month.
| 2013 = 100 | July | August | September | October |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer price index | 123.05 | 124.05 | 125.24 | 128.21 |
| Inflation | 9.62% | 9.94% | 11.27% | 12.27% |
| Health index | 122.35 | 123.68 | 124.92 | 127.92 |
| Smoothed health index* | 118.39 | 119.39 | 120.53 | 122.22 |
| * defined in the law of 23 April 2015 on the promotion of employment (Belgian Official Journal of 27 April 2015) | ||||
[i] The effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall CPI).
[ii] The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.