Inflation amounts to 4.08%
Consumer price index for January 2025
- Inflation goes from 3.16% to 4.08% in January.
- The consumer price index increased by 1.85 points or 1.39% this month.
- Inflation based on the health index has risen from 3.24% to 4.09%.
- The smoothed health index amounted to 131.18 points in January. The central index for public service and social benefits, set at 130.67 points, has been exceeded.
- Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stands at 3.14% in January, compared to 2.91% in December.
- The most significant price increases in January were registered for electricity, domestic services, milk, cheese and eggs, natural gas, alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, bread and cereals, meat, vegetables (including potatoes) and sewage collection. However, mobile telephony, hotel rooms and travels abroad and city trips have had a decreasing effect on the index.
Inflation stands at 4.08% in January compared to 3.16% in December and 3.20% in November. Inflation based on the health index amounts to 4.09% this month compared to 3.24% in December and 3.63% in November. Inflation without energy stands at 3.03% in January, compared to 2.79% in December and 2.59% in November. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stands at 3.14% in January, compared to 2.91% in December and 2.80% in November.
Comment on inflation
With regard to energy, inflation stands at 15.89% this month, compared to 7.40% last month and 9.44% in November. For electricity, inflation is currently at 26.7% compared to 12.6% last month. For natural gas, it went from 59.2% last month to 93.3% this month. Compared to last month, natural gas prices increased by 2.7% and those for electricity by 8.8%. The high inflation in recent months is due to the phasing-out of the impact of the basic package for electricity and natural gas. The last effect of the basic package disappeared from the price index in March 2024. The disappearance of the basic package will therefore continue to have an upward impact on inflation up to February 2025 included. Prices for domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, have decreased by 7.6% in one year. Motor fuels cost 0.1% less than in January last year and increased by 1.4% this month compared to the previous month.
Inflation for services has increased to 4.13% from 3.94%. Inflation for rents has decreased to 3.41% from 4.22%. Food inflation (including alcoholic beverages) now stands at 2.54% compared to 1.85% last month.
Energy inflation goes from 7.40% in December to 15.89% in January and accounts for 1.32 percentage points to total inflation. With an inflation of 2.54%, food products account for 0.48 percentage points.
The price of natural gas has increased by 2.7% in January compared to the previous month. The price of electricity has increased by 8.8% on average this month.
Some products and services that rose sharply in price compared to January last year are:
| Upward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Natural gas | 93.3% |
| Other tobacco products (e.g. loose tobacco) | 27.4% |
| Cigarettes | 27.4% |
| Electricity | 26.7% |
| Domestic services | 22.9% |
| Other fuels (LPG) | 21.0% |
| Olive oil | 20.5% |
| Fresh seafood | 19.5% |
Some products and services that fell sharply in price compared to January last year are:
| Downward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Mobile telephone services | -19.8% |
| Individual computers (laptop) | -17.5% |
| Video equipment (television) | -16.5% |
| Refrigerators and freezers | -13.3% |
| Washing machines, dryers and dishwashers | -12.7% |
| Cookers, hobs and ovens | -10.2% |
| Smartphones | -8.7% |
| Domestic heating oil | -7.6% |
The group with the largest upward effect[i] on inflation in January was “Housing, water and energy” with an effect of 1.26 percentage points. The largest downward effect was measured for “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” (-0.44 percentage points).
The main group with the largest contribution[ii] to inflation was “Interior decoration and household appliances” with 1.71 percentage points. The lowest contribution to inflation was registered by the main group “Communication”, with -0.03 percentage points.
The first inflation estimate according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP flash estimate) for Belgium amounts to 4.4% in January 2025.
Comment on the level of the indices
The consumer price index rose by 1.85 points or 1.39% in January and now stands at 135.39 points, compared to 133.54 points in December 2022 (2013=100). The health index went up by 1.79 points to 135.52 points in January, compared to 133.73 points in December. The smoothed health index amounts to 131.18 points in January, exceeding the central index for public service and social benefits set at 130.67 points. The next central index is set at 133.28.
The most significant price increases in January were registered for electricity, domestic services, milk, cheese and eggs, natural gas, alcoholic beverages, meat and cereals, meat, non-alcoholic beverages, vegetables (including potatoes) and sewage collection. However, mobile telephony, hotel rooms and travels abroad and city trips have had a decreasing effect on the index. This means that social security benefits and pensions will be raised by 2% in February. Wages in the public sector will be indexed by 2% in March.
The most important trends this month are:
| Upward: | Effect: | Downward: | Effect: |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity | +0.360 points | Mobile telephony | -0.090 points |
| Domestic services | +0.315 points | Hotel rooms | -0.075 points |
| Milk, cheese and eggs | +0.150 points | Travels abroad and city trips | -0.075 points |
| Natural gas | +0.140 points | ||
| Alcoholic beverages | +0.120 points | ||
| Bread and cereals | +0.095 points | ||
| Meat | +0.085 points | ||
| Non-alcoholic beverages | +0.085 points | ||
| Vegetables, including potatoes | +0.075 points | ||
| Sewage collection | +0.065 points |
Electricity prices rose by an average of 8.8% this month. Domestic services rose by 20.7% - mainly due to the increase in the price of service vouchers in Flanders and the cancellation of the tax reduction on their purchase. Milk, cheese and eggs register a price increase of 5.6%. Prices for natural gas increased by 2.7%. Prices for alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages increased on average by 5.1% and 3.9%, respectively. Prices for bread and cereals rose on average by 2.4% compared to the previous month. Meat experienced a price increase of 1.7% on average. Prices for vegetables (including potatoes) increased by 2.9% on average. Prices for sewage collection increased by 10.5%.
Mobile telephony is on average 17.2% less expensive. Prices for hotel rooms have decreased by 6.6% on average compared to the previous month. Travels abroad and city trips registered an average price decrease of 2.6%.
| 2013 = 100 | October | November | December | January |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer price index | 132.79 | 133.01 | 133.54 | 135.39 |
| Inflation | 3.20% | 3.20% | 3.16% | 4.08% |
| Health index | 132.96 | 133.22 | 133.73 | 135.52 |
| Smoothed health index* | 130.13 | 130.22 | 130.42 | 131.18 |
| * defined in the law of 23 April 2015 on the promotion of employment (Belgian Official Journal of 27 April 2015) | ||||
[i] The effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall CPI).
[ii] The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.
Consumer price index, inflation, health index, health index (moving average), index without energy and petroleum, last 13 months
Access to latest statisticsConsumer price index by base year, last 13 months
Annual inflation rate (in %) based on 12 groups (COICOP), last 11 months
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Purpose and brief description
The consumer price index is an economic indicator whose main task is to objectively reflect the price evolution over time for a basket of goods and services purchased by households and considered representative of their consumer habits. The index does not necessarily measure the price level of this basket for a specific period of time, but rather the fluctuation between two periods, the first one acting as basis for comparison. Moreover, this difference in the price level is not measured in absolute, but in relative terms. The consumer price index can be determined as a hundred times the ratio between the observed prices of a range of goods and services at a given time and the prices of the same goods and services, observed under the same circumstances during the reference period, chosen as basis for comparison. Price observations always take place in the same regions.
Since 2014, the consumer price index has been a chain index in which the weighting reference period is regularly shifted and prices and quantities are no longer compared between the current period and a fixed reference period, but the current period is compared with an intermediate period. By multiplying these short-term indices, and so creating a chain, we get a long-term series with a fixed reference period.
Population
Belgian private households
Data collection method and possible sampling
Survey technique applied using a computer, based on the use of electronic questionnaires and laptops.
Frequency
Monthly.
Timing of publication
The results are available on the penultimate working day of the reference period.
Definitions
Weight (CPI): The weight represents the importance of the goods and services included in the CPI in the total expenditure patterns of the households. Weights are determined based on the household budget survey.
Consumer price index (CPI): The consumer price index is an economic indicator whose main task is to objectively reflect the price evolution over time for a basket of goods and services purchased by households and considered representative of their consumer habits.
Health index: The health index is derived from the consumer price index and has been published since January 1994. The current value of this index is determined by removing a number of products from the consumer price index product basket, in particular alcoholic beverages (bought in a shop or consumed in a bar), tobacco products and motor fuels except for LPG.
Inflation: Inflation is defined as the ratio between the value of the consumer price index of a given month and the index of the same month the year before. Therefore, inflation measures the rhythm of the evolution of the overall price level.
Consumer price index without petroleum products: This index is calculated by removing the following products from the consumer price index: butane, propane, liquid fuels and motor fuels.
Consumer price index without energy products: This index is calculated by removing the following products from the consumer price index: electricity, natural gas, butane, propane, liquid fuels, solid fuels and motor fuels.
Smoothed index: The smoothed health index, also called smoothed index (the average value of the health indexes of the last 4 months) is used as a basis for the indexation of retirement pensions, social security benefits and some salaries and wages. Public wages and social benefits are indexed as soon as the smoothed index reaches a given value, called the central index. The smoothed index is also called moving average.
In order to perform a 2% index jump (laid down in the Law of 23 April 2015 on employment promotion), the smoothed health index has been temporarily blocked at its value of March 2015 (100.66). The smoothed health index was then reduced by 2% from April 2015. When the reduced smoothed health index (also called the reference index) had increased again by 2% or in other words when it had exceeded the value of 100.66, the index was no longer blocked. It occurred in April 2016.
Since April 2016 the smoothed health index is calculated in the same manner as the reference index and therefore corresponds to the arithmetical mean of the health indexes of the last 4 months multiplied by a factor of 0.98.
The central index is a predetermined threshold value against which the smoothed health index is compared. If the central index is reached or exceeded, there is an indexation of the wages and salaries or benefits. This indexation is proportional to the percentage between the old and the new central index. For the public sector and social benefits, the difference between the central indices always amounts to 2 %. Therefore, a 2 % indexation is applied every time the central index is reached. There are also collective labour agreements according to which the difference between the central indices amounts to 1 % or 1.5 %. The reaching of a central index then leads to an indexation of 1 % or 1,5 %.
See also: https://bosa.belgium.be/nl/themas/werken-bij-de-overheid/verloning-en-voordelen/loonwedde/indexatie/indexatie-algemene
And : https://bosa.belgium.be/fr/themes/travailler-dans-la-fonction-publique/remuneration-et-avantages/traitement/indexation-0
An effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall CPI).
The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.
Metadata
- Monthly survey of consumer prices by surveyors in stores.pdf
- Enquête 'Private huur'.pdf
- Consumptieprijsindexen.pdf
- Huishoudbudgetonderzoek.pdf
- Enquête 'sociale huur'.pdf
- Statbel’s pre-release policy for the consumer price index (CPI)
Index-phone
02/277.56.40