Statbel, the Belgian statistical office, publishes an overview of the provisional mortality figures for the year 2021, for all causes of death. The publication contains provisional mortality figures for all Belgian municipalities, and a first analysis of the mortality by age category, gender and by month in 2021. Sciensano also publishes today a more detailed analysis, specifically on excess mortality in 2021 compared to the expected mortality according to the Be-MOMO model. In 2022, Statbel will continue to update the mortality figures weekly on Fridays.
This publication compares the mortality figures of 2021 with the average mortality figures of the period 2017-2019. In addition, we also compare the mortality figures between the Covid years 2020 and 2021. The population structure is not taken into account in this publication. Further scientific research must show the impact of the population structure on the mortality figures[1].
Mortality increases by 2.5% compared to the average for 2017-2019
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Belgian mortality figures seems to be a lot less in 2021 than in 2020. In 2021, just under 112,500 deaths were provisionally recorded. This is about 14,500 fewer deaths than in 2020, the first Covid year. Compared to the average in the pre-Covid period 2017-2019, a moderate increase of about 2,700 (2.5%) deaths was seen in 2021. This increase is a lot smaller than last year. In 2020 an increase of about 17,000 (15.7%) deaths was observed.
Mortality in the Brussels-Capital Region lower than the average for 2017-2019
Behind the general mortality figures, there are rather limited regional differences. If we compare the provisional figures for 2021 with the average for 2017-2019, we see an increase of about 3% in the Flemish Region and the Walloon Region. In the Brussels-Capital Region, there is a decrease of -1.2% compared to the average.
However, in 2020, the Brussels-Capital Region had the sharpest relative increase in the number of deaths of all the regions, or a 22.7% increase compared to the period 2017-2019. When comparing the average number of deaths in the Covid years 2020 and 2021 with the pre-Covid years 2017-2019, an increase of 9.1% in the number of deaths was seen in Belgium. In the Flemish Region, the increase of 7.9% was slightly lower than in the Walloon Region and Brussels-Capital Region where it was 10.7%.
Evolution of mortality from 2017 to 2021 (in %)
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Excess mortality 2020 compared to 2017-2019 (in %) | Excess mortality 2021 compared to 2017-2019 (in %) | Excess mortality 2020-2021 compared to 2017-2019 (in %) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 109,629 | 110,645 | 108,745 | 126,850 | 112,390 | +15.7% | +2.5% | +9.1% |
| Flemish Region | 62,530 | 63,397 | 62,420 | 70,919 | 64,515 | +13.0% | +2.8% | +7.9% |
| Walloon Region | 38,068 | 38,329 | 37,409 | 44,947 | 39,029 | +18.5% | +2.9% | +10.7% |
| Brussels-Capital Region | 9,031 | 8,919 | 8,916 | 10,984 | 8,846 | +22.7% | -1.2% | +10.7% |
Evolution of mortality per province and capital from 2017 to 2021
| Province | Average mortality 2017-2019 | Mortality 2021 | Excess mortality 2021 compared to 2017-2019 (in %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brussels-Capital Region | 8,955 | 8,846 | -1.2% |
| Province of Antwerp | 17,270 | 17,569 | +1.7% |
| Province of Flemish Brabant | 10,392 | 10,456 | +0.6% |
| Province of Walloon Brabant | 3,564 | 3,669 | +2.9% |
| Province of West Flanders | 12,889 | 13,470 | +4.5% |
| Province of East Flanders | 14,562 | 14,819 | +1.8% |
| Province of Hainaut | 14,840 | 15,371 | +3.6% |
| Province of Liège | 11,696 | 11,843 | +1.3% |
| Province of Limburg | 7,670 | 8,201 | +6.9% |
| Province of Luxembourg | 2,716 | 2,886 | +6.3% |
| Province of Namur | 5,120 | 5,260 | +2.7% |
| Capital province | Average mortality 2017-2019 | Mortality 2021 | Excess mortality 2021 compared to 2017-2019 (in %) |
| Brussels | 1,196 | 1,182 | -1.2% |
| Antwerp | 4,900 | 4,702 | -4.0% |
| Leuven | 827 | 789 | -4.6% |
| Wavre | 351 | 366 | +4.3% |
| Bruges | 1,333 | 1,386 | +4.0% |
| Ghent | 2,311 | 2,284 | -1.2% |
| Mons | 1,010 | 1,011 | +0.1% |
| Liège | 2,142 | 2,117 | -1.2% |
| Hasselt | 762 | 826 | +8.4% |
| Arlon | 224 | 254 | +13.4% |
| Namur | 1,221 | 1,244 | +1.9% |
Mortality increases among men
In the preliminary mortality figures for 2021, we see an increase in the number of deaths in men (+5.8%) while the number in women decreases slightly (-0.7%) compared to the average for 2017-2019. This is while in the year 2020 the mortality figures in both men and women had increased evenly against the same average: around 15.5% in both groups.
In terms of age groups, the 65-74 year olds were particularly affected in 2021 (+11.2%) compared to the average for 2017-2019. The impact on the other age groups was smaller in 2021, with the over-85s even seeing a return to the pre-Covid period in terms of the number of deaths.
In 2020, the older age groups were hit especially hard compared to the same average. The over-85s (20.8%) were in the lead, followed by the 75-84 year olds (+15.5%) and the 65-74 year olds (+15.2%). For the younger age groups, there was little or no impact.
Evolution of mortality by age group from 2017 to 2021
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Excess mortality 2020 compared to 2017-2019 (in %) | Excess mortality 2021 compared to 2017-2019 (in %) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-24 years* | 621 | 567 | 531 | 515 | 565 | -10.1% | -1.4% |
| 25-44 years | 2,259 | 2,192 | 2,129 | 2,175 | 2,334 | -0.8% | +6.4% |
| 45-64 years | 13,681 | 13,639 | 13,139 | 13,950 | 13,469 | +3.4% | -0.1% |
| 65-74 years | 17,208 | 17,615 | 17,690 | 20,170 | 19,470 | +15.2% | +11.2% |
| 75-84 years | 29,575 | 29,334 | 28,244 | 33,562 | 30,054 | +15.5% | +3.5% |
| 85+ years | 45,858 | 46,857 | 46,586 | 56,106 | 46,301 | +20.8% | -0.3% |
| * The registration of the number of deaths in 2021 among persons below the age of 1 year is still too incomplete to be able to compare mortality rates correctly in the 0-24 age group, hence the choice to limit the age group to 1-24 year olds. | |||||||
Fourth wave in particular causes moderate increase
Comparing deaths by month shows that a similar number of deaths was recorded in the period January up to and including September 2021 as in the same months in the reference period 2017-2019. A moderate decrease in mortality in February and March was compensated by a slightly higher mortality especially in April and May.
In October 2021, the number of deaths seemed for the first time to be really higher than the average of the previous years (+11.4%). Then in November (+17.6%) and December (+14.3%), too, the number of deaths was significantly above average. So it seems that it was mainly the fourth Covid wave that caused a moderate increase of 2.7% in the number of deaths compared to the reference period.
Evolution of mortality per month from 2017 to 2021
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Excess mortality 2020 compared to 2017-2019 (in %) | Excess mortality 2021 compared to 2017-2019 (in %) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 11,828 | 10,360 | 10,468 | 10,217 | 10,753 | -6.1% | -1.2% |
| February | 10,516 | 10,089 | 9,766 | 9,387 | 8,979 | -7.3% | -11.3% |
| March | 9,419 | 12,202 | 9,998 | 11,586 | 9,373 | +9.9% | -11.1% |
| April | 8,459 | 8,971 | 8,901 | 15,449 | 9,509 | +76.0% | +8.3% |
| May | 9,097 | 8,559 | 8,829 | 9,449 | 9,212 | +7.0% | +4.3% |
| June | 8,221 | 7,793 | 8,276 | 7,992 | 8,156 | -1.3% | +0.7% |
| July | 8,227 | 8,918 | 8,755 | 8,004 | 8,464 | -7.3% | -2.0% |
| August | 8,236 | 8,499 | 8,242 | 9,847 | 8,266 | +18.3% | -0.7% |
| September | 8,108 | 8,044 | 8,003 | 8,189 | 8,312 | +1.7% | +3.2% |
| October | 8,769 | 8,666 | 8,888 | 10,752 | 9,773 | +22.5% | +11.4% |
| November | 8,638 | 8,729 | 8,867 | 14,035 | 10,288 | +60.5% | +17.6% |
| December | 10,111 | 9,815 | 9,752 | 11,943 | 11,305 | +20.7% | +14.3% |
Situation in historical data
Statbel disposes of historical data with mortality rates per year since 1841 and per month since 1919. In the historical dataset, gross mortality rates can be compared, among other things. This is calculated as the ratio of the number of deaths to the total population. This gross mortality rate usually has a decreasing trend. This trend was interrupted by the Covid pandemic (2020 and 2021). Of the 181 years observed since 1841, 2021, with a gross mortality rate of 9.8 per mille, ranks 171st, which is much better than the 147th place of 2020 with 11.0 per mille. It is important to note that the 10 years (rank 172 to 181) that had a lower gross mortality rate than 2021 are all in the last 15 years. So the downward trend in the gross mortality rate does not seem to have fully recovered.
[1] The best known example is the age distribution. This is subject to change over the years and therefore has an impact on the number of deaths in the population.