Employment increases for the second month in a row since the beginning of the health crisis
As Belgian statistical office, Statbel wants to map the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the labour market by providing fast, indicative figures. After the months of April and May in which employment fell, we recorded an increase in the number of people employed in June. Based on the provisional results of the Labour Force Survey for July this year, it seems that this increase continues in July. The increase is mainly among young people.
The employment rate of people aged 20-64 also increases again and is estimated in July at 70.3 %. However, this positive trend is not observed in all population groups: in the 55-64 age group and among low-skilled people, we see a drop in the employment rate. The employment rate also decreases in Brussels, while we observe an upward trend in Flanders and Wallonia. The employment rate of people aged 20-64 amounts to 58.8 % in Brussels, 75.5 % in Flanders and 65.0 % in Wallonia.
ILO unemployment rate rises sharply in July
While the ILO unemployment rate of people aged 15-64 still showed a downward trend in March and April, it started to rise slightly since May. In June, the ILO unemployment rate stood at 5.4 %. In July, it increases significantly to 6.7 %. The increase is particularly significant among women. Other groups where the unemployment rate is rising significantly are the 25-49 age group and the low-skilled people. The unemployment rate increases sharply in Brussels and Flanders, but remains stable in Wallonia. However, Wallonia already experienced a sharp increase in the unemployment rate in June. The unemployment rate of people aged 15-64 amounts to 14.7 % in Brussels, 4.9 % in Flanders and 7.7 % in Wallonia.
Shift from inactivity to ILO unemployment
Statbel calculates the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Office (ILO). To be considered as ILO unemployed, three criteria must be simultaneously satisfied:
- you have no job
- you are actively looking for work
- you are available to start working within two weeks.
Whereas in the first months of the Covid-19 crisis we observed an increase in the number of inactive people and a decrease in the number of ILO unemployed, we now see the opposite: the number of ILO unemployed is rising sharply and the number of inactive people is falling. At the same time, in recent months, two groups of inactive people with characteristics very similar to those of the ILO unemployed have evolved significantly. The first group is composed of inactive people who do not have a job, are available to start working within two weeks, but are not actively looking for work. In this particular category, we observed a sharp increase at the beginning of the health crisis. Indeed, between March and May, this number went from 120,000 persons to 173,000 persons. In June, however, we saw the number drop again to 147,000 persons, and the fall continues in July, to 123,000 persons. When these persons indicate that they are actively looking for work again, they move from inactivity to ILO unemployment. The decrease in this number could therefore be related to the increase in the number of unemployed. The same applies to the second group of inactive people who are closely linked to ILO unemployment. They are people without work who are actively looking for work but are not available to start work within two weeks. The number of persons in this group went from 76,000 to 95,000 persons between March and June. In July, this number suddenly drops sharply to 61,000. The people in this group who have become available for work are shifting from inactivity to ILO unemployment.
Holidays by far the main reason of absence
Even more than in March, when we were in lockdown in only two out of four reference weeks, the crisis had a significant impact on hours worked in April and May. In April 2020, more than 44 % of employees had worked less than usual or had not worked at all during the reference week for which they were interviewed. This was 2.1 million employed people. In May we already saw a first positive effect of the implemented lockdown easing measures and the number dropped to about 1.6 million. In June, this number fell even further to 1.1 million employed persons. In July, the number of employed persons indicating that they have not worked or have worked less than usual rises again to 1.6 million, but the holiday period obviously plays an important role in this.
On the one hand, there is the group of people who indicate that they did not work at all during the reference week. In July 2020, they were 1.2 million, roughly the same number as in July last year. The main reason of absence is holidays. This is the case for 867,000 persons with a job. The second main reason for not having worked at all during the reference week is illness, accident or temporary disability. In July, there were 148,000 persons in this group. For 64,000 people, temporary unemployment is the main reason for absence during the whole reference week. This number is almost half that registered in June.
On the other hand, there is the group of people who indicate that they worked less during the reference week. In July 2020, there were 396,000 persons in this group, i.e. 130,000 more than in July 2019. At the height of the crisis in April 2020, there were 761,000 persons in this group.
Holidays are the main reason for working less than usual (215,000 persons), followed by temporary unemployment, with 66,000 persons. This figure, too, is almost half that of June, but still significantly higher than before the crisis.
The average actual working time per week is still slightly lower than in July last year
Because of holidays, the average actual working time per week in the holiday months is usually below that of the other months. In July 2020, persons employed worked on average 26.1 hours per week in their main job. In June, it was 31.4 hours. The average working time per week in July this year is below that of July last year. At that time, the average actual working time was 26.9 hours per week.