Consumer price index of February 2021
- Inflation increases from 0.26 % to 0.46 % in February.
- The consumer price index this month increases by 0.24 points or 0.22 %.
- Inflation based on the health index has declined from 0.57 % to 0.47 %.
- The smoothed health index stood at 107.93 points in February.
- Inflation for food products is negative and currently stands at -0.24 %.
- The most significant price increases in February were registered for motor fuels, alcoholic beverages, vegetables, natural gas, electricity and fish and seafood. However, bread and cereals, non-alcoholic beverages, confectionery, personal care products and maintenance products have had a decreasing effect on the index
- The current measures due to the COVID-19 had an impact on the calculation of the index. More information is available here. In practice, this means that for the month of February there is an increasing effect on the index for flowers and plants and travels abroad due to the carry forward of prices with last year’s seasonal correction factor.
The consumer price index was running at 110,21 points in February 2021. It has increased by 0.24 points over the month. Inflation has gone up to 0.46 % from 0.26 %. The health index gained 0.04 points and is now at 110.39 points. Inflation based on the health index has fallen to 0.47% from 0.57%. The most significant price increases were registered for motor fuels, alcoholic beverages, vegetables, natural gas, electricity and fish and seafood. However, bread and cereals, non-alcoholic beverages, confectionery, personal care products and maintenance products have had a decreasing effect on the index.
The consumer price index has risen by 0.24 points or 0.22 % in February 2021 and is now running at 110.21 points, compared to 109.97 points in January 2021 (2013=100). The health index has gained 0.04 points to 110.39 points in February, compared to 110.35 points in January. The smoothed health index stood at 107.93 points in February. The next central index for public service and social benefits is set at 109.34 points.
Products with the largest upward effect in February were motor fuels, alcoholic beverages, vegetables, flowers and plants, natural gas, electricity, travels abroad and city trips and fish and seafood. However, bread and cereals, non-alcoholic beverages, confectionery, personal care products and maintenance products have had a decreasing effect on the index. The most important trends this month are:
| Upward: | Effect: | Downward: | Effect: |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motor fuels | +0,100 point | Bread and cereals | -0,080 point |
| Alcoholic beverages | +0,080 point | Non-alcoholic beverages | -0,060 point |
| Vegetables, incl. potatoes | +0,060 point | Sugar, jam and chocolate | -0,060 point |
| Flowers and plants (*) | +0.050 point | Personal care products | -0,035 point |
| Natural gas | +0.045 point | Maintenance products | -0.030 point |
| Electricity | +0.045 point | ||
| Travels abroad and city trips (*) | +0.030 point | ||
| Fish and seafood | +0.030 point |
(*) consequence of the carry forward of prices with a seasonal correction factor
Motor fuels became on average 2.9 % more expensive. Prices of alcoholic beverages have gone up on average by 4.2 %. Vegetables have become 2.8 % more expensive compared to last month. Natural gas and electricity were respectively 3.1 % and 1.3 % more expensive. Prices for fish and seafood have increased on average by 2.4 %.
Prices for bread and cereals have fallen by 2.4 % on average. Prices of non-alcoholic beverages have decreased on average by 3.1 % compared to the previous month. Prices for confectionery have decreased on average by 4.6 % this month. Personal care products were 2.4 % cheaper, prices for maintenance products have fallen by 4.4 % on average compared to the previous month.
Note about inflation for commonly purchased products
The table below shows the inflation of a number of commonly purchased product groups. For almost all commonly purchased products, inflation has sharply decreased these past few months. This decrease is due to the fact that the effect of the price decreases in the second semester 2019 has faded away. See the analysis on ‘Measuring inflation during the coronavirus crisis’ for a discussion on this effect. This month, the inflation for most product groups is even negative, which means that prices are lower than a year ago.
| COICOP | Name | Weight in the basket (on 1000) | Nov/2020 | Dec/2020 | Jan/2021 | Feb/2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 178.9 | +2.3% | +1.6% | +1.2% | -0.2% |
| 01.1 | Food products | 161.6 | +2.5% | +1.7% | +1.0% | -0.2% |
| 01.2 | Non-alcoholic beverages | 17.2 | +1.2% | +1.1% | +3.3% | +0.1% |
| 05.6.1 | Non-durable household goods | 8.9 | +0.9% | -1.1% | +0.8% | -3.0% |
| 05.6.1.1 | Cleaning and maintenance products | 5.7 | +1.1% | -2.2% | +1.0% | -4.1% |
| 05.6.1.2 | Other non-durable small household articles | 3.2 | +0.4% | +0.9% | +0.3% | -1.0% |
| 09.3.4 | Pets and related products | 7.5 | +3.7% | +0.6% | +0.9% | -0.1% |
| 12.1.3 | Other appliances, articles and products for personal care | 14.6 | -0.1% | -0.3% | +1.3% | -1.3% |
| 12.1.3.1 | Non-electrical appliances for personal care | 0.8 | +0.4% | +0.8% | +2.1% | +1.1% |
| 12.1.3.2 | Articles for personal hygiene | 13.8 | -0.1% | -0.3% | +1.2% | -1.4% |
Also when compared to March 2020 based on price recordings carried out at the start of the coronavirus crisis, prices have been lower for a while. This trend continues, since prices in February 2021 have further decreased compared to last month. For example, prices for food products are currently on average 1.3 % lower than in March 2020. Compared to April 2020, when the temporary ban on discounts was in force, prices are still lower. For example, food products are 2.9 % cheaper compared to April 2020, and cleaning and maintenance products are even 5.4 % less expensive.
| COICOP | Name | Weight in the basket (on 1000) | Price change Feb. ‘21 vs March ‘20 | Price change Feb. ‘21 vs April ‘20 | Price change Feb. ‘21 vs Jan ‘21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 178.9 | -1.4% | -2.9% | -0.8% |
| 01.1 | Food products | 161.6 | -1.3% | -2.9% | -0.5% |
| 01.2 | Non-alcoholic beverages | 17.2 | -1.7% | -2.2% | -3.1% |
| 05.6.1 | Non-durable household goods | 8.9 | -0.1% | -4.8% | -3.4% |
| 05.6.1.1 | Cleaning and maintenance products | 5.7 | +0.8% | -5.4% | -4.4% |
| 05.6.1.2 | Other non-durable small household articles | 3.2 | -1.7% | -3.8% | -1.5% |
| 09.3.4 | Pets and related products | 7.5 | -0.2% | -0.1% | -1.1% |
| 12.1.3 | Other appliances, articles and products for personal care | 14.6 | -2.3% | -2.3% | -2.3% |
| 12.1.3.1 | Non-electrical appliances for personal care | 0.8 | +1.7% | +6.1% | -0.2% |
| 12.1.3.2 | Articles for personal hygiene and wellness, esoteric products and beauty products | 13.8 | -2.5% | -2.8% | -2.4% |
Note about overall inflation
Inflation now stands at 0.46 % compared to 0.26 % in January and 0.41 % in December. Inflation based on the health index amounted to 0.47 % this month compared to 0.57 % in January and 0.64 % in December. Inflation without energy has gone down to 0.87 % in February compared to 1.10 % last month and 1.40 % in December. Core inflation, which does not take into account changes in the prices of energy products and unprocessed food, was running at 1.01 % in February, compared to 1.15 % in January and 1.33 % in December.
Energy inflation now stands at -3.60 %, compared to -7.85 % in January and -8.98 % in December. Electricity is now 1.8 % more expensive than a year ago. Natural gas is 4.1 % more expensive on an annual basis. Prices for domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, have declined by 32.2 % over a year. Motor fuels are 2.2 % less expensive than last year. Inflation for services has risen to 1.23 % from 1.09 %. Inflation for rents amounted to 1.49 % in January and has increased to 2.13 % in February.
The main group with the largest upward effect[i]on inflation in February was "Recreation and culture" with an effect of 0.15 percentage points. The largest downward effect was measured for “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” with -0.15 percentage points.
The main group with the largest contribution[ii]to inflation is "Recreation and culture" with 0.18 percentage points. The lowest contribution to inflation was registered by the main group "Health", with -0.06 percentage points.
| 2013 = 100 | November | December | January | February |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer price index | 109.46 | 109.49 | 109.97 | 110.21 |
| Inflation | 0.51% | 0.41% | 0.26% | 0.46% |
| Health index | 109.91 | 109.88 | 110.35 | 110.39 |
| Smoothed health index* | 107.80 | 107.72 | 107.86 | 107.93 |
| * defined in the law of 23 April 2015 on the promotion of employment (Belgian Official Journal of 27 April 2015) | ||||
[i] The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.
[ii] The effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall HICP).