Inflation down to 1.99 % from 2.34 %

Consumer price index of January 2019

• Inflation has decreased from 2.34 % to 1.99 % in January.
• The consumer price index has decreased by 0.05 point or 0.05 % this month.
• Inflation based on the health index has declined from 2.17 % to 2.00 %.
• The smoothed health index amounts to 106.25 points in January.
• The most significant price decreases in January have been registered for motor fuels, electricity, natural gas, holiday villages, hotel rooms and travels abroad and city trips. However, health insurance, fire insurance, clothing, rents, fish and shellfish, vegetables, confectioneries and alcoholic beverages have had an increasing effect on the index.

The consumer price index amounts to 108.17 points in January 2019. The index has decreased by 0.05 point over the month. Inflation has dropped from 2.34 % to 1.99 %. The health index has gained 0.05 point to 108.50 points. Inflation based on the health index has decreased from 2.17 % to 2.00 %. The most significant price decreases in January have been registered for motor fuels, electricity, natural gas, holiday villages, hotel rooms and travels abroad and city trips. These decreases were mainly offset by price increases for health insurance, fire insurance, clothing, rents, fish and shellfish, vegetables, confectioneries and alcoholic beverages.

The consumer price index has fallen by 0.05 point or 0.05 % in January 2019 and now amounts to 108.17 points, compared to 108.22 points in December 2018 (2013=100).

The health index has gone up by 0.05 point to 108.50 points in January, compared to 108.45 points in December. The smoothed health index amounts to 106.25 points in January. The central index for public service and social benefits, set at 107.20 points, has therefore not been reached this month. The last time the central index was exceeded was in August 2018.

Products with the largest increasing effect in January were health insurance, fire insurance, clothing, rents, fish and shellfish, vegetables, confectioneries and alcoholic beverages. However, motor fuels, electricity, natural gas, holiday villages, hotel rooms and travels abroad and city trips have provided the largest downward pressure compared to last month. The most important trends this month are:

Health and fire insurances cost on average 6.1 % and 2.8 %, respectively, more than last month. Prices of clothing have increased on average by 0.7 %. When interpreting this figure, keep in mind that the effects of sales periods are systematically spread over six months. The increase therefore mainly means that the measured discounts were on average lower than during the sales period of July 2018. Rents have gone up by 0,4% on average. Fish and shellfish have become 2.7 % more expensive. Prices for vegetables have increased on average by 1.7 %. Confectioneries have increased on average by 2.1 % Prices of alcoholic beverages have increased on average by 1.7 % compared to the previous month.

Motor fuels have been on average 3.6 % less expensive compared to the previous month. Electricity has become on average 1.9 % less expensive. The price of natural gas is 3.4 % lower than last month. Holiday villages have become 9.4 % cheaper. Prices of hotel rooms have decreased on average by 6.1 %. Travels abroad and city trips became 2.0 % cheaper compared to the previous month.

Inflation now amounts to 1.99 % compared to 2.34 % last month and 2.78 % in November. Inflation based on the health index amounted to 2.00 % this month compared to 2.17 % in December and 2.48 % in November. Inflation without energy has gone down to 1.46 % in January compared to 1.59 % last month and 1.66 % in November. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, amounts to 1.43 % in January, compared to 1.62 % in December and 1.63 % in November.

Inflation of food now amounts to 1.43 %, compared to 1.56% last month and 1.94% in November. Fresh fruit now costs 0.2 % less than in January 2018. Fresh vegetables prices are also on the rise: 3.6 % on an annual basis. Fish and shellfish are 3.4 % more expensive than a year ago. Prices have increased by 0.7 % for non alcoholic beverages and by 1.7 % for alcoholic beverages. Tobacco prices have gone up by 6.4 % compared to January last year. Energy inflation is now running at 6.63 %, down from 8.85 % in December and 12.58 % in November. Electricity is now 9.0 % more expensive than a year ago. Natural gas is 7.3 % more expensive than in January last year. Prices for domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, have increased by 16.7 % in a year. Motor fuels are 0.1 % more expensive than last year. Inflation for services has gone down to 1.75 % from 2.05 %. Inflation for rents has slightly increased and now stands at 0.95 %, compared to 0.87 % in December.

The following products and services have registered the sharpest price increases compared to last year in January:

The following products and services have registered the sharpest price decreases compared to last year in January:

The main group with the largest upward effect on inflation in January was "housing, water, energy" with an effect on inflation of 0.54 percentage point. The largest downward effect was measured for "food and non-alcoholic beverages" (-0.11 percentage point).

The main group with the largest contribution to inflation is "housing, water and energy" with 0.80 percentage point. The lowest contribution to inflation was registered by the main group "communication", with 0.00 percentage point.