Inflation decreases for the seventh month in a row and amounts to 0.48 %

Consumer prices
Inflation decreases for the seventh month in a row and amounts to 0.48 %

Consumer price index of October 2019

  • Inflation decreased from 0.80 % to 0.48 in October.
  • The consumer price index this month increases by 0.39 point or 0.36 %.
  • Inflation based on the health index has declined from 0.99 % to 0.67 %.
  • The smoothed health index stood at 106.75 points in October.
  • The most significant price increases in October were registered for holiday villages, electricity, motor fuels, personal care products, meat, restaurants and cafés and fees for recreation and sport services. However, vegetables and domestic heating oil have had a decreasing effect on the index.

The consumer price index is running at 108.83 points in October 2019. It has increased by 0.39 point over the month. Inflation has dropped from 0.80 % to 0.48 %. The health index has gained 0.40 point to 108.98 points. Inflation based on the health index has fallen to 0.67 % from 0.99 %. The most significant price increases in October were registered for holiday villages, electricity, motor fuels, personal care products, meat, restaurants and cafés and fees for recreation and sport services. These increases were mainly offset by price decreases for vegetables and domestic heating oil.

cpi

The consumer price index has risen by 0.39 points or 0.36 % in October 2019 and is now running at 108.83 points, compared to 108.44 points in September 2019 (2013=100).

The health index in October has gone up by 0.40 point to 108.98 points, compared to 108.58 points in September. The smoothed health index stood at 106.75 points in October. The central index for public service and social benefits, set at 107.20 points, has therefore not been reached. The last time the central index was exceeded was in August 2018.

The largest upward pressure in October came from holiday villages, electricity, motor fuels, personal care products, meat, restaurants and cafés and recreation and sport services.

Vegetables and domestic heating oil provided the largest downward pressure compared to last month. The most important trends this month are:

Upward: Effect: Downward: Effect:
Holiday villages +0.045 point Vegetables -0.040 point
Electricity +0.040 point Domestic heating oil -0.025 point
Motor fuels +0.035 point    
Personal care products +0.030 point    
Meat +0.030 point    
Restaurants and cafés +0.030 point    
Fees for recreation and sport services +0.025 point    

Holiday villages have become on average 5.7 % more expensive compared to last month. Prices for electricity have increased on average by 0.9 % this month. Motor fuels have become 0.9 % more expensive this month. Prices for personal care products have increased on average by 2.2 %. Meat is on average 0.7 % more expensive compared to the previous month. Visits to restaurants and cafés have become on average 0.5 % more expensive and fees for recreation and sport services have increased on average by 2.6 %.

Vegetables have become on average 2.3 % less expensive this month. Domestic heating oil has decreased compared to the previous month by 1.6 % on average.

Inflation is now running at 0.48 %, compared to 0.80 % in September and 1.26 % in August. Inflation based on the health index amounts to 0.67 % this month compared to 0.99 % in September and 1.41 % in August. Inflation without energy has increased to 1.37 % in October compared to 1.25 % last month and 1.64 % in August. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stands at 1.55 % in October, against 1.40 % in September and 1.56 % in August.

Food inflation is now running at -0.06 %, compared to 0.12 % last month and 1.72 % in August. Fresh fruit now costs 6.4 % less than in October 2018. Fresh vegetables are cheaper: 2.7 % on an annual basis. Fish and shellfish are 0.4 % less expensive than a year ago. On average, non-alcoholic beverages cost 0.4% less than in October last year. Alcoholic beverages are 0.4 % more expensive than last year. Tobacco prices have gone up by 5.0 % compared to October last year.

Energy inflation is now running at -6.66 %, compared to -2.93 % in September and -2.00 % in August. Electricity is now 5.6 % less expensive than a year ago. Natural gas is 17.2 % less expensive than last year in October. Prices for domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, have increased by 1.8 % in one year. Motor fuels are 6.2 % less expensive than last year. Inflation for services has gone up to 2.13 % from 1.96 %. Inflation for rents increases from 1.02% to 1.18 %.

The following products and services have registered the sharpest price increases compared to last year in October:

Upward: Inflation:
Postal mail 12.5%
Newspapers 11.8%
Other tobacco products (e.g. loose tobacco) 9.8%
Software 9.4%
Package holidays in Belgium 7.9%
Educational text books 7.5%
Holiday villages, camping sites and youth hostels 7.4%
Pork 7.3%
Transport by airplane 7.0%
Hotels and similar services 6.7%
Contribution to national health services 6.1%
Wine from other fruits (cider) 5.8%

The following products and services have registered the sharpest price decreases compared to last year in October:

Downward: Inflation:
Other fuels (LPG) -22.8%
Natural gas -17.2%
Frozen shellfish -7.5%
Diesel -6.7%
Liquefied petroleum gas (propane) -6.6%
Fresh fruit -6.4%
Electricity -5.6%
Cookers, hobs and ovens -5.3%
Petrol -5.0%
Fresh shellfish -4.8%
Mobile telephone services -4.7%
Eggs -4.7%

The main group with the largest upward effect[i] on inflation in October was “Hotels, cafés and restaurants” with an effect of 0.22 percentage point. The largest downward effect was measured for “Housing, water and energy” (-0.57 percentage point).

cpi

The main group with the largest contribution[ii] to inflation is “Hotels, cafés and restaurants” with 0.24 percentage point. The lowest contribution to inflation was registered by the main group “Housing, water and energy”, with -0.37 percentage point.

cpi

 

cpi

 

 

2013 = 100 July August September October
Consumer price index 108.96 108.94 108.44 108.83
Inflation 1.42% 1.26% 0.80% 0.48%
Health index 109.07 109.07 108.58 108.98
Smoothed health index* 106.81 106.83 106.76 106.75
* defined in the law of 23 April 2015 on the promotion of employment (Belgian Official Journal of 27 April 2015)

The first inflation estimate according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP flash estimate[iii]) for Belgium amounts to 0.2 % in October. The difference between the HICP and the national consumer price index (CPI) is mainly due to conceptual differences in terms of weight source, reference population, spending concept, seasonal adjustment and moving average (smoothing)[iv]


[i]An effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall CPI).

[ii]The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.

[iii]The flash estimate of the Belgian HICP is an estimate of the inflation according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices. It is calculated by Statbel based on incomplete data for the reference period and is published by Eurostat at the end of the month. A couple of weeks later, Statbel calculates, based on exhaustive data, the final HICP that will be published by Eurostat and Statbel.

[i]The main conceptual differences between the HICP and the CPI are

  • The weighting of the basket of goods and services in the HICP is mainly based on the national accounts. At lower detailed levels the Household Budget Survey is used. The CPI mostly uses the Household Budget Survey at all levels.
  • The reference population of the HICP consists of private households (including tourists in Belgium) and institutional households (e.g. retirement homes and nursing homes). In the CPI, this population consists of private households with a reference person under a maximum age.
  • The HICP uses the concept of domestic expenditure: expenditure in Belgium by the reference population. The CPI uses the concept of national expenditure: expenditure by the reference population irrespective of the location.
  • Seasonal adjustment is not applied in the HICP, but is applied in the CPI to travels abroad and stays in holiday villages.
  • Sales periods in the CPI are systematically spread over 6 months, but are included in the same month in the HICP.
  • Current prices for domestic heating oil are used in the HICP calculation. A weighted 12-month average is applied in the CPI calculation.