Inflation decreases and amounts to 0.26 %

Consumer price index of January 2021

• Inflation decreased from 0.41 % to 0.26 % in January.
• The consumer price index this month increases by 0.48 points or 0.44 %.
• Inflation based on the health index has declined from 0.64 % to 0.57 %.
• The smoothed health index amounts to 107.86 points in January.
• The most significant price increases in January were registered for non-alcoholic beverages, natural gas, bread and cereals, electricity, dairy products, motor fuels, cleaning and maintenance products, health insurance and the purchase of vehicles. However, domestic heating oil, private rents and fish and seafood have had a decreasing effect on the index.
• The current measures due to the COVID-19 had an impact on the calculation of the index. More information is available here. In practice, this means that for the month of January there is an increasing effect on the index for hotel rooms due to the carry forward of prices with last year’s seasonal correction factor. For holiday villages, there is a decreasing effect on the index for the same reason.

The consumer price index amounts to 109.97 points in January 2021. It has increased by 0.48 points over the month. Inflation has dropped from 0.41 % to 0.26 %. The health index gained 0.47 points and is now at 110.35 points. Inflation based on the health index has fallen to 0.57 % from 0.64 %. The most significant price increases were registered for non-alcoholic beverages, natural gas, bread and cereals, electricity, dairy products, motor fuels, cleaning and maintenance products, health insurance and the purchase of vehicles. However, domestic heating oil, private rent and fish and seafood have had a decreasing effect on the index.

The consumer price index has risen by 0.48 points or 0.44 % in January 2021 and is now running at 109.97 points, compared to 109.49 points in December 2020 (2013=100). The health index has gained 0.47 points to 110.35 points in January, compared to 109.88 points in December. The smoothed health index amounts to 107.86 points in January. The next central index for public service and social benefits is set at 109.34 points.

Products with the largest upward effect in January were non-alcoholic beverages, natural gas, bread and cereals, electricity, dairy products, hotel rooms, motor fuels, cleaning and maintenance products, health insurance and the purchase of vehicles. However, domestic heating oil, private rent, fish and seafood and holiday villages and camping sites have had a decreasing effect on the index. The most important trends this month are:

(*) consequence of the carry forward of prices with a seasonal correction factor

Non-alcoholic beverages were on average 4.0 % more expensive this month. Prices for natural gas and electricity have gone up by 4.7 % and 1.7 % respectively. Bread and cereals were on average 1.8 % more expensive than last month; prices for dairy products increased by 2.0 %. Motor fuels have become on average 1.3 % more expensive. Prices for cleaning and maintenance products have increased by 5.3 % on average. Health insurance became 2.2 % more expensive. The purchase of vehicles became on average 0.4 % more expensive.

Domestic heating oil prices went down by 4.5 %. Prices for rents have gone down by 0.2 % on average compared to last month. Fish and seafood have become on average 2.7 % less expensive.

Inflation now amounts to 0.26 % compared to 0.41 % last month and 0.51 % in November. Inflation based on the health index amounted to 0.57 % this month compared to 0.64 % in December and 0.83 % in November. Inflation without energy has gone down to 1.10 % in January compared to 1.40 % last month and 1.56 % in November. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, amounts to 1.15 % in January, compared to 1.33 % in December and 1.34 % in November.

Inflation of food now amounts to 1.31 %, compared to 1.74 % last month and 2.40 % in November. Fresh fruit now costs 3.0 % less than in January 2020. Fresh vegetables are cheaper: 2.7 % on an annual basis. Fish and seafood are 2.3 % more expensive than a year ago. Meat is 1.4 % more expensive than last year. Prices for non-alcoholic beverages are now on average 3.3 % higher than in January last year. Alcoholic beverages are 2.0 % more expensive than last year. Tobacco prices went up by 1.4 % compared to January 2020.

Energy inflation is now running at -7.85 %, compared to -8.98 % in December and -9.46 % in November. Electricity is now 0.4 % less expensive than a year ago. Natural gas is 1.7 % cheaper on an annual basis. Prices for domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, have declined by 31.7 % over a year. Motor fuels are 9.4 % less expensive than last year. Inflation for services has declined to 1.09 % from 1.30 %. Inflation for rents amounted to 3.63 % in December and has decreased to 1.49 % in January.

The main group with the largest upward effect^[i] on inflation in January was "Food and non-alcoholic beverages" with an effect of 0.22 percentage points. The largest downward effect was measured for “Housing, water and energy” with -0.33 percentage points.

The main group with the largest contribution^[ii]to inflation is "Food and non-alcoholic beverages" with 0.22 percentage points. The lowest contribution to inflation was registered by the main group “Housing, water and energy”, with -0.23 percentage points.