Consumer price index for February 2023
- Inflation decreased from 8.05% to 6.62% in February.
- The consumer price index decreased by 0.89 points or 0.70% this month.
- Inflation based on the health index has fallen from 8.28% to 6.84%.
- The smoothed health index amounted to 125.00 points in February.
- Inflation for food products has sharply increased in recent months. Food inflation (including alcoholic beverages) now stands at 16.12%, compared to 15.59% in January. The contribution of food products to inflation currently amounts to 3.06 percentage points.
- Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stands at 8.28% in February, compared to 8.05% in January. This is due to the increase in inflation for processed food products and services.
- The most significant price increases in February were registered for alcoholic beverages, vegetables, meat, rents, fish, dairy products, fruit and vehicles. However, electricity, natural gas, clothing and personal care products have had a decreasing effect on the index.
Inflation amounts to 6.62% in February compared to 8.05% in January and 10.35% in December. Inflation based on the health index decreased to 6.84% this month compared to 8.28% in January and 10.63% in December. Inflation without energy increased to 8.87%, compared to 8.61% in January and 7.89% in December. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stands at 8.28% in February, compared to 8.05% in January and 7.34% in December.
Comment on inflation
With regard to energy, we see a new significant decrease in inflation this month. It now stands at -7.93%, compared to 5.21% last month and 32.88% in December. This is due to the sharp increase in energy inflation observed in February 2022 (inflation being a measure related to the previous year) and a decrease in electricity and natural gas prices compared to last month. For electricity, inflation is currently -16.0% compared to 2.8% last month and 35.5% in December. For natural gas, it goes from -7.1% last month to -30.8% this month. In December, it was still 73.1%. Compared to last month, prices for natural gas decreased by 27.8% and those for electricity by 16.2%. Prices for domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, have increased by 40.5% in a year. Motor fuels cost 0.5% less than in February last year and increased by 0.2% this month compared to the previous month.
Inflation for services has increased to 6.96% up from 6.56%. Inflation for rents has risen from 5.93% to 6.16%. Food inflation (including alcoholic beverages) now stands at 16.12% compared to 15.59% last month. This inflation has increased sharply in recent months. In February last year, it was still 3.84%.
In particular, inflation for oils, fish, dairy products, bread and cereals and meat has sharply increased in recent months. Inflation for oils stands this month at 24.4%. In February 2022, it was still 12.6%. For fish, inflation is now 15.7% compared to 3.1% in February 2022. Inflation for dairy products amounts to 26.0% this month compared to 4.0% in February 2022. For bread and cereals, inflation stands at 19.2% this month compared to 5.0% in February last year. Inflation for meat amounts to 14.8% this month compared to 3.0% in February 2022.
The decrease in inflation is associated with lower energy prices. Energy inflation goes from 5.21% in January 2023 to -7.93% in February 2023 and accounts for -1.22 percentage points to total inflation, compared to 0.42 the previous month. With an inflation of 16.12%, food products account for 3.06 percentage points.
The price of natural gas has decreased by 27.8% on average compared to the previous month. The price of electricity has decreased by 16.2% on average this month.
Some products and services that rose sharply in price compared to February last year are:
| Upward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Wood and other solid fuels | 46.4% |
| Liquid fuels | 40.5% |
| Eggs | 38.6% |
| Whole milk | 33.5% |
| Other edible oils than olive oil (e.g. frying oil) | 32.0% |
| Skimmed and semi-skimmed milk | 29.3% |
| Pizza and quiche | 28.6% |
| Sugar | 27.5% |
Some products and services that fell sharply in price compared to February last year are:
| Downward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Natural gas | -30.8% |
| Electricity | -16.0% |
| Televisions | -13.1% |
| Pre-recorded recording media (Blu-ray, DVD, etc.) | -8.4% |
| Smartphones | -6.0% |
| Other information processing equipment (e.g. smartwatch) | -4.8% |
| Diesel | -3.0% |
| Audio and video accessories (e.g. headphone) | -1.7% |
The main group with the largest upward effect[i] on inflation in February was “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” with an effect of 2.09 percentage points. The largest downward effect was measured for “Housing, water and energy” (-2.16 percentage points).
The main group with the largest contribution[ii] to inflation is “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” with 2.89 percentage points. The lowest contribution to inflation was registered by the main group “Housing, water and energy”, with -0.47 percentage points.
Comment on the level of the indices
The consumer price index fell by 0.89 points or 0.70% in February 2023 and now stands at 126.95 points, compared to 127.84 points in January 2023 (2013=100). The health index has decreased by 1.14 points to 126.86 points in February, compared to 128.00 points in January. The smoothed health index amounted to 125.00 points in February. The next central index for public service and social benefits is set at 125.60 points.
The most significant price increases in February were registered for alcoholic beverages, vegetables, meat, rents, fish, dairy products, fruit and the purchase of vehicles. However, electricity, natural gas, clothing and personal care have had a decreasing effect on the index.
The most important trends this month are:
| Upward: | Effect: | Downward: | Effect: |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alcoholic beverages | +0.180 points | Electricity | -0.890 points |
| Vegetables | +0.105 points | Natural gas | -0.835 points |
| Meat | +0.090 points | Clothing | -0.075 points |
| Rents | +0.070 points | Personal care products | -0.055 points |
| Fish | +0.065 points | ||
| Dairy products | +0.060 points | ||
| Fruit | +0.060 points | ||
| Purchase of vehicles | +0.055 points |
Prices for alcoholic beverages increased by 8.6% on average this month. The price of vegetables soared in February by 4.4% on average. Meat has increased by 1.8% on average. Rents were on average 0.7% more expensive this month. Fish became on average 4.5% more expensive in February. Dairy products experienced a price increase of 2.0% on average. Fruit increased by 3.4% and vehicles by 0.6% on average.
Prices for electricity and natural gas decreased this month by 16.2% and 27.8% respectively. Prices for clothing decreased by 1.4% on average and those of personal care products by 1.6% on average.
| 2013 = 100 | November | December | January | February |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer price index | 127.92 | 127.72 | 127.84 | 126.95 |
| Inflation | 10.63% | 10.35% | 8.05% | 6.62% |
| Health index | 127.44 | 127.89 | 128.00 | 126.86 |
| Smoothed health index* | 123.47 | 124.50 | 125.26 | 125.00 |
| * defined in the law of 23 April 2015 on the promotion of employment (Belgian Official Journal of 27 April 2015) | ||||
[i] The effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall CPI).
[ii] The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.