Consumer price index for January 2025
- Inflation goes from 3.16% to 4.08% in January.
- The consumer price index increased by 1.85 points or 1.39% this month.
- Inflation based on the health index has risen from 3.24% to 4.09%.
- The smoothed health index amounted to 131.18 points in January. The central index for public service and social benefits, set at 130.67 points, has been exceeded.
- Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stands at 3.14% in January, compared to 2.91% in December.
- The most significant price increases in January were registered for electricity, domestic services, milk, cheese and eggs, natural gas, alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, bread and cereals, meat, vegetables (including potatoes) and sewage collection. However, mobile telephony, hotel rooms and travels abroad and city trips have had a decreasing effect on the index.
Inflation stands at 4.08% in January compared to 3.16% in December and 3.20% in November. Inflation based on the health index amounts to 4.09% this month compared to 3.24% in December and 3.63% in November. Inflation without energy stands at 3.03% in January, compared to 2.79% in December and 2.59% in November. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stands at 3.14% in January, compared to 2.91% in December and 2.80% in November.
Comment on inflation
With regard to energy, inflation stands at 15.89% this month, compared to 7.40% last month and 9.44% in November. For electricity, inflation is currently at 26.7% compared to 12.6% last month. For natural gas, it went from 59.2% last month to 93.3% this month. Compared to last month, natural gas prices increased by 2.7% and those for electricity by 8.8%. The high inflation in recent months is due to the phasing-out of the impact of the basic package for electricity and natural gas. The last effect of the basic package disappeared from the price index in March 2024. The disappearance of the basic package will therefore continue to have an upward impact on inflation up to February 2025 included. Prices for domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, have decreased by 7.6% in one year. Motor fuels cost 0.1% less than in January last year and increased by 1.4% this month compared to the previous month.
Inflation for services has increased to 4.13% from 3.94%. Inflation for rents has decreased to 3.41% from 4.22%. Food inflation (including alcoholic beverages) now stands at 2.54% compared to 1.85% last month.
Energy inflation goes from 7.40% in December to 15.89% in January and accounts for 1.32 percentage points to total inflation. With an inflation of 2.54%, food products account for 0.48 percentage points.
The price of natural gas has increased by 2.7% in January compared to the previous month. The price of electricity has increased by 8.8% on average this month.
Some products and services that rose sharply in price compared to January last year are:
| Upward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Natural gas | 93.3% |
| Other tobacco products (e.g. loose tobacco) | 27.4% |
| Cigarettes | 27.4% |
| Electricity | 26.7% |
| Domestic services | 22.9% |
| Other fuels (LPG) | 21.0% |
| Olive oil | 20.5% |
| Fresh seafood | 19.5% |
Some products and services that fell sharply in price compared to January last year are:
| Downward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Mobile telephone services | -19.8% |
| Individual computers (laptop) | -17.5% |
| Video equipment (television) | -16.5% |
| Refrigerators and freezers | -13.3% |
| Washing machines, dryers and dishwashers | -12.7% |
| Cookers, hobs and ovens | -10.2% |
| Smartphones | -8.7% |
| Domestic heating oil | -7.6% |
The group with the largest upward effect[i] on inflation in January was “Housing, water and energy” with an effect of 1.26 percentage points. The largest downward effect was measured for “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” (-0.44 percentage points).
The main group with the largest contribution[ii] to inflation was “Interior decoration and household appliances” with 1.71 percentage points. The lowest contribution to inflation was registered by the main group “Communication”, with -0.03 percentage points.
The first inflation estimate according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP flash estimate) for Belgium amounts to 4.4% in January 2025.
Comment on the level of the indices
The consumer price index rose by 1.85 points or 1.39% in January and now stands at 135.39 points, compared to 133.54 points in December 2022 (2013=100). The health index went up by 1.79 points to 135.52 points in January, compared to 133.73 points in December. The smoothed health index amounts to 131.18 points in January, exceeding the central index for public service and social benefits set at 130.67 points. The next central index is set at 133.28.
The most significant price increases in January were registered for electricity, domestic services, milk, cheese and eggs, natural gas, alcoholic beverages, meat and cereals, meat, non-alcoholic beverages, vegetables (including potatoes) and sewage collection. However, mobile telephony, hotel rooms and travels abroad and city trips have had a decreasing effect on the index. This means that social security benefits and pensions will be raised by 2% in February. Wages in the public sector will be indexed by 2% in March.
The most important trends this month are:
| Upward: | Effect: | Downward: | Effect: |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity | +0.360 points | Mobile telephony | -0.090 points |
| Domestic services | +0.315 points | Hotel rooms | -0.075 points |
| Milk, cheese and eggs | +0.150 points | Travels abroad and city trips | -0.075 points |
| Natural gas | +0.140 points | ||
| Alcoholic beverages | +0.120 points | ||
| Bread and cereals | +0.095 points | ||
| Meat | +0.085 points | ||
| Non-alcoholic beverages | +0.085 points | ||
| Vegetables, including potatoes | +0.075 points | ||
| Sewage collection | +0.065 points |
Electricity prices rose by an average of 8.8% this month. Domestic services rose by 20.7% - mainly due to the increase in the price of service vouchers in Flanders and the cancellation of the tax reduction on their purchase. Milk, cheese and eggs register a price increase of 5.6%. Prices for natural gas increased by 2.7%. Prices for alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages increased on average by 5.1% and 3.9%, respectively. Prices for bread and cereals rose on average by 2.4% compared to the previous month. Meat experienced a price increase of 1.7% on average. Prices for vegetables (including potatoes) increased by 2.9% on average. Prices for sewage collection increased by 10.5%.
Mobile telephony is on average 17.2% less expensive. Prices for hotel rooms have decreased by 6.6% on average compared to the previous month. Travels abroad and city trips registered an average price decrease of 2.6%.
| 2013 = 100 | October | November | December | January |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer price index | 132.79 | 133.01 | 133.54 | 135.39 |
| Inflation | 3.20% | 3.20% | 3.16% | 4.08% |
| Health index | 132.96 | 133.22 | 133.73 | 135.52 |
| Smoothed health index* | 130.13 | 130.22 | 130.42 | 131.18 |
| * defined in the law of 23 April 2015 on the promotion of employment (Belgian Official Journal of 27 April 2015) | ||||
[i] The effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall CPI).
[ii] The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.