Consumer price index for February 2025
- Inflation goes from 4.08% to 3.55% in February.
- The consumer price index increased by 0.27 points or 0.20% this month.
- Inflation based on the health index has fallen from 4.09% to 3.70%.
- The smoothed health index amounted to 131.87 points in February.
- Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stands at 3.10% in February, compared to 3.14% in January.
- The most significant price increases in February were registered for natural gas, electricity, flowers and plants, water consumption, motor fuels and the purchase of vehicles. However, clothing, alcoholic beverages and products for pets have had a decreasing effect on the index.
Inflation stands at 3.55% in February compared to 4.08% in January and 3.16% in December. Inflation based on the health index amounted to 3.70% this month compared to 4.09% in January and 3.24% in December. Inflation without energy stands at 2.29% in February, compared to 3.03% in January and 2.79% in December. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stands at 3.10% in February, compared to 3.14% in January and 2.91% in December.
Comment on inflation
With regard to energy, inflation stands at 8.17% this month, compared to 15.89% last month and 7.40% in December. For electricity, inflation is currently at 19.5% compared to 26.7% last month. For natural gas, it went from 93.3% last month to 37.1% this month. Compared to last month, natural gas prices increased by 2.6% and those for electricity by 1.5%. The sharp drop in inflation compared to last month is due to the disappearance of a base effect. This effect emerged last year due to the disappearance of a large part of the basic package for electricity and gas, which provided households with a premium. In February 2024, a large part of this effect disappeared from the index, causing the indices for gas and electricity to rise. Last year, this led to an increase in gas prices by 44.6% between January and February and in electricity prices by 7.7%. Since this price increase is absent this year, inflation automatically declines. Next month, the last effect of the basic package will disappear from the index, further reducing inflation.
Prices for domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, have decreased by 8.9% in one year. Motor fuels cost 3.1% less than in February last year and increased by 1.0% this month compared to the previous month.
Inflation for services has increased to 4.34% from 4.13%. Inflation for rents has decreased to 3.30% from 3.41%. Food inflation (including alcoholic beverages) now stands at 2.22% compared to 2.54% last month.
Energy inflation goes from 15.89% in January to 8.17% in February and accounts for 0.83 percentage points to total inflation. With an inflation of 2.22%, food products account for 0.42 percentage points.
Prices of natural gas have increased by 2.6% in February compared to the previous month. The price of electricity has increased by 1.5% on average this month.
Some products and services that rose sharply in price compared to February last year are:
| Upward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Natural gas | 37.1% |
| Cigarettes | 28.7% |
| Other tobacco products (loose tobacco) | 27.1% |
| Domestic services | 23.5% |
| Olive oil | 20.9% |
| Electricity | 19.5% |
| Other fuels (LPG) | 17.6% |
| Jewellery | 14.7% |
Some products and services that fell sharply in price compared to February last year are:
| Downward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Mobile telephone services | -19.8% |
| Video equipment (television) | -14.5% |
| Smartphones | -13.0% |
| Computers | -12.1% |
| Refrigerators and freezers | -9.7% |
| Domestic heating oil | -8.9% |
| Smartwatches | -8.5% |
| Washing machines, dryers and dishwashers | -8.3% |
The main group with the largest upward effect [i] on inflation in February was “Housing, water and energy” with an effect of 0.95 percentage points. The largest downward effect was measured for “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” and "Transport" (-0.28 percentage points each).
The main group with the largest contribution [ii] to inflation was “Housing, water and energy” with 1.37 percentage points. The lowest contribution to inflation was registered by the main group “Communication”, with -0.03 percentage points.
The first inflation estimate according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP flash estimate) for Belgium amounts to 4.4% for February 2025.
Comment on the level of the indices
The consumer price index rose by 0.27 points or 0.20% in February and now stands at 135.66 points, compared to 135.39 points in January (2013=100). The health index went up by 0.27 points and stands at 135.79 points, compared to 135.52 points in January. The smoothed health index amounted to 131.87 points in February. The next central index for public service and social benefits is set at 133.28 points.
The most significant price increases in February were registered for natural gas, electricity, flowers and plants, water consumption, motor fuels and the purchase of vehicles. However, clothing, alcoholic beverages and products for pets have had a decreasing effect on the index.
The most important trends this month are:
| Upward: | Effect: | Downward: | Effect: |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas | +0.135 points | Clothing | -0.240 points |
| Electricity | +0.070 points | Alcoholic beverages | -0.040 points |
| Flowers and plants | +0.060 points | Products for pets | -0.040 points |
| Water consumption | +0.045 points | ||
| Motor fuels | +0.045 points | ||
| Other motor vehicles | +0.035 points |
Natural gas prices rose by an average of 2.6% this month. Electricity prices rose by 1.5%. Flowers and plants increased by an average of 8.0%. As every year, the sharpest increase was registered for roses due to Valentine's Day. The price of water consumption increased by 5.5% - mainly due to the increase in the Walloon Region. Prices of motor fuels increased by 1.0% on average. The purchase of vehicles is on average 0.5% more expensive compared to the previous month.
Prices for clothes decreased by 4.3% on average. The price of alcoholic beverages dropped by 1.7% on average compared to the previous month. Products for pets registered an average price decrease of 3.6%.
| 2013 = 100 | November | December | January | February |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer price index | 133.01 | 133.54 | 135.39 | 135.66 |
| Inflation | 3.20% | 3.16% | 4.08% | 3.55% |
| Health index | 133.22 | 133.73 | 135.52 | 135.79 |
| Smoothed health index* | 130.22 | 130.42 | 131.18 | 131.87 |
| * defined in the law of 23 April 2015 on the promotion of employment (Belgian Official Journal of 27 April 2015) | ||||
[i] The effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall CPI).
[ii] The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.