Consumer price index - September 2022
- Inflation went up in September from 9.94% to 11.27%, reaching its highest level since August 1975, when it stood at 11.42%.
- The consumer price index this month increases by 1.19 points or 0.96%.
- Inflation based on the health index has increased to 11.25% from 9.70%.
- The smoothed health index stood at 120.53 points in September.
- The high inflation this month, as in recent months, is largely due to high energy prices. Energy currently has an inflation rate of 60.54% and accounts for 5.39 percentage points of the total inflation.
- Furthermore, inflation for food products has also sharply increased in recent months. Inflation for food products (including alcoholic beverages) stands at 10.40% this month, The contribution of food products to inflation currently amounts to 2.03 percentage points.
- Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stands at 6.21% in September, compared to 5.74% in August. This is a result of increased inflation for processed food and services.
- The main price increases in August concerned electricity, natural gas, clothing, alcoholic beverages, domestic heating oil, restaurants and cafés, travels abroad and city trips, purchase of vehicles and rent. However, airplane tickets, hotel rooms, confectionery, motor fuels, bread and cereals and meat have had a decreasing effect on the index.
Inflation was running at 11.27% in September compared to 9.94% in August and 9.62% in July. Inflation based on the health index amounted to 11.25% this month compared to 9.70% in August and 9.07% in July. Inflation without energy rose to 6.44% compared to 5.99% in August and 5.76% in July. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stood at 6.21% in September, compared to 5.74% in August and 5.49% in July.
Inflation for services has risen slightly from 5.36% to 5.38%. Inflation for rents now stands at 3.86%, up from 3.73%. Inflation for food products (including alcoholic beverages) stands at 10.40% this month, compared to 9.71% last month. This inflation rate has risen sharply in recent months. In November last year, it was still 0.47%. In particular, inflation for oils, fish, dairy products, bread and cereals and meat has sharply increased in recent months. Inflation for oils stands this month at 24.8%. In November, it was still 3.6%. For fish, inflation is now 12.5% compared to -0.4% in November. Inflation for dairy products amounts to 14.9% this month compared to 0.6% in November. For bread and cereals, it stands this month at 13.2% compared to 1.7% in November. Inflation for meat amounts this month to 10.3% compared to 0.8% in November.
The sharp increase in inflation since autumn 2021 is largely due to energy products. Energy inflation is now running at 60.54%, compared to 49.81% in August and 49.11% in July. Electricity is now 81.3% more expensive than a year ago. Natural gas is 134.9% more expensive than last year in September. The price of domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, has increased by 56.3% in one year. Motor fuels are 16.8% more expensive than last year.
The high inflation is mainly due to the high energy prices. Energy currently has an inflation rate of 60.54% and accounts for 5.39 percentage points of the total inflation. Food, with an inflation rate of 10.40%, contributes 2.03 percentage points.
The price of natural gas has increased by 14.7% on average compared to the previous month. Prices for electricity have gone up by 15.0% on average this month.
Some products and services that rose sharply in price compared to September last year are:
| Upward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Natural gas | 134.9% |
| Electricity | 81.3% |
| Domestic heating oil | 56.3% |
| Other edible oils than olive oil (including frying oil) | 36.9% |
| Hotels | 31.2% |
| Butter | 25.9% |
| Whole milk | 25.4% |
| Semi-skimmed milk | 25.2% |
Some products and services that fell sharply in price compared to September last year are:
| Downward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Television set | -11.9% |
| Smartphones | -9.9% |
| Computers | -5.2% |
| Mobile telephone services | -4.8% |
| Recording media (a.o. memory card) | -2.6% |
| Accessories for audio and video equipment (including headphones) | -1.7% |
| Men's clothing | -0.8% |
| Personal accessories (including umbrella, sunglasses...) | -0.4% |
The main group with the largest upward effect[i] on inflation in September was ‘housing, water, energy’ with an effect on inflation of 4.19 percentage points. The largest downward effect was measured for “recreation and culture” with -0.65 percentage points.
The main group with the largest contribution[ii] to inflation is ‘Housing, water and energy’ with 5.38 percentage points. The lowest contribution to inflation is made by the group education, with 0.01 percentage points.
The first inflation estimate according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP flash estimate) for Belgium amounts to 12.0% for September 2022.
Comment on the level of the indices
The consumer price index has increased by 1.19 point or 0.96% in September 2022 and now amounts to 125.24 points, compared to 124.05 points in August 2022 (2013=100). The health index has increased by 1.24 points to 124.92 points in September, compared to 123.68 points in August. The smoothed health index stood at 120.53 points in September. The next central index for public service and social benefits is set at 120.73 points.
The main price increases in September concerned electricity, natural gas, clothing, alcoholic beverages, domestic heating oil, restaurants and cafés, travels abroad and city trips, purchase of vehicles and rent. However, airplane tickets, hotel rooms, confectionery, motor fuels, bread and cereals and meat have had a decreasing effect on the index.
The most important trends this month are:
| Upward: | Effect: | Downward: | Effect: |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity | +0.730 point | Airplane tickets | -0.205 point |
| Natural gas | +0.415 point | Hotel rooms | -0.120 point |
| Clothing | +0.190 point | Confectionery | -0.105 point |
| Alcoholic beverages | +0.125 point | Motor fuels | -0.095 point |
| Domestic heating oil | +0.110 point | Bread and cereals | -0.095 point |
| Restaurants and cafés | +0.065 point | Meat | -0.050 point |
| Travels abroad and city trips | +0.060 point | ||
| Purchase of vehicles | +0.060 point | ||
| Private rent | +0.055 point |
Electricity became on average 15.0% more expensive in September. Prices for natural gas have gone up by 14.7% on average this month. The price of clothing has gone up by 3.7% on average this month. Alcoholic beverages were on average 5.9% more expensive this month. The price of domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, increased by 7,3% on average. Visits to restaurants and cafés have become on average 0.8% more expensive. The purchase of vehicles became on average 0.7% more expensive this month. Private rent increased on average by 0.6% this month.
Airplane tickets have become on average 21.6% less expensive this month. The price of hotel rooms decreased by 9.1%. In September, confectionery registered an average price decrease of 7.6%. Prices for motor fuels have decreased on average by 2.1% this month. Bread and cereals have become on average 2.5% less expensive. The price of meat has gone down by 1,0% on average this month.
| 2013 = 100 | June | July | August | September |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer price index | 122.04 | 123.05 | 124.05 | 125.24 |
| Inflation | 9.65% | 9.62% | 9.94% | 11.27% |
| Health index | 121.02 | 122.35 | 123.68 | 124.92 |
| Smoothed health index* | 117.58 | 118.39 | 119.39 | 120.53 |
| * defined in the law of 23 April 2015 on the promotion of employment (Belgian Official Journal of 27 April 2015) | ||||
[i] The effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall CPI).
[ii] The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.