- Belgium's inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) was running at 12.1% in September compared to 10.5% in August and 10.4% in July.
- Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) stood at 5.8% in September, up from 5.4% in August.
- The inflation rate based on the consumer price index (CPI) for September stood at 11.3% compared to 9.9% in August.
- The sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation were electricity, gas, domestic heating oil and motor fuels.
- The sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation this month were housing rent, clothing, telecommunication, restaurants and cafés, nursing in hospitals, furniture, tobacco and pharmaceutical products.
- The harmonised index of consumer prices of September for the EU Member States will be published by Eurostat on 19 October.
The inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) was running at 12.1% in September compared to 10.5% in August and 10.4% in July. The inflation rate based on the harmonised index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT) was running at 13.2% in September, compared to 11.5% in August. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the HICP-CT is largely due to the temporary VAT reduction for electricity and gas. These price changes are not taken into account in the HICP-CT.
Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stood at 5.8% in September, compared to 5.4% in August and 5.2% in July. Inflation without energy went up to 6.0% in September compared to 5.5% in August and 5.4% in July.
Inflation for food products stands at 11.4% this month, compared to 10.3% last month. This inflation for food has sharply risen in recent months. In November last year, it was still 0.3%. Inflation for oils, fish, dairy products, bread and cereals and meat has sharply increased in recent months. Inflation for oils stands this month at 24.9%. In November, it was still 4.2%. For dairy products, inflation is now 15.3% compared to 0.8% in November. Fish has an inflation rate of 11.3% this month, while in November it was -1.2%. For bread and cereals, it stands this month at 14.2% compared to 1.7% in November. Inflation for meat amounts this month to 10.7% compared to 0.7% in November.
The sharp increase in inflation in recent months is largely due to energy products. Energy has a contribution to inflation of 6.6%. Food products provide a contribution of 2.0%.
Electricity is now 81.3% more expensive than a year ago. Natural gas is 134.9% more expensive on an annual basis. The price of domestic heating oil has risen by 64.6% compared to last year.
Inflation and effect on inflation for the 12 main groups
Based on the breakdown into 12 main groups, the highest inflation rate in September is measured for ‘Housing, water, energy’ (39.3%). The lowest inflation rate is recorded for the group ‘Education’ (1.0%).
The main group with the largest upward effect on inflation in September was ‘Housing, water, energy’ with an effect on inflation of 5.5 percentage points. The largest downward effect is measured for ‘Health’ with -0.8 percentage points.
|Product group||Weight (‰)||Inflation on annual basis (%)||Effect on inflation (percentage point)|
|1||Food and non-alcoholic beverages||168.6||9.9||10.3||11.3||11.3||-0.1||-0.1||-0.2|
|2||Alcoholic beverages and tobacco||53.5||6.4||6.6||6.7||4.2||-0.2||-0.2||-0.3|
|3||Clothing and footwear||58.8||2.2||-0.1||3.0||3.0||-0.6||-0.6||-0.5|
|4||Housing, water and energy||171.8||29.4||31.2||39.3||47.9||3.9||4.2||5.5|
|5||Interior decoration and household appliances||83.6||5.3||5.5||5.5||5.5||-0.5||-0.5||-0.6|
|9||Recreation and culture||82.9||3.6||3.4||3.9||3.9||-0.6||-0.6||-0.7|
|11||Hotels, cafés and restaurants||67.3||5.6||5.6||6.4||0.3||-0.3||-0.3||-0.4|
|12||Various goods and services||84.0||4.2||4.4||4.6||4.6||-0.6||-0.6||-0.7|
Inflation according to specific aggregates
The overall HICP can be broken down into five specific aggregates which together form the total expenditure.
- Inflation for energy products increased compared to the previous month. It was running at 67.2% in September, compared to 55.3% in August and 55.1% in July. Prices increased on average by 8.9% compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 59.3%.
- Inflation of processed food rose from 9.6% in August to 10.5% in September. In July it was 9.3%. Compared to the previous month, prices rose by an average of 0.3%. The average inflation rate for the last twelve months is 5.9%.
- Inflation for unprocessed food (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish) amounts to 8.9% in September compared to 8.7% in August and 8.0% in July. Prices increased on average by 0.5% compared to August. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 4.0%.
- The inflation rate for non-energy industrial goods was 5.1% in September, an increase compared to August when the inflation rate for this aggregate was 4.2%. Prices increased on average by 1.2% compared to the previous month.
- For services (including rent), inflation slightly decreased to 4.2% this month, down from 4.3% in August. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 3.3%.
Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) is running at 5.8% in September, an increase compared to 5.4% in August. The average core inflation over the last 12 months amounts to 3.8%. Prices of this subaggregate increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month.
Inflation according to specific aggregates
|Specific aggregates||Weight (‰)||Inflation on annual basis (%)||12-month average (%)||Monthly change|
|Fuels and energy sources||107.5||55.1||55.3||67.2||59.3||8.9|
|Processed food products||178.0||9.3||9.6||10.5||5.9||0.3|
|Non-energy industrial goods||271.6||4.0||4.2||5.1||3.1||1.2|
|HICP without energy and unprocessed food (core inflation)||848.5||5.2||5.4||5.8||3.8||0.2|
Effect of sub-indices on inflation
The largest upward effect on inflation was caused by electricity with an impact of 2.49 percentage points. Gas provided an upward effect of 2.32 percentage points. Domestic heating oil has an impact of 0.62 percentage points. Motor fuels provided a positive impact of 0.19 percentage points.
Sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation
|Sub-index||Weight (‰)||Effect on inflation (percentage point)|
|04.5.3||Domestic heating oil||11.7||0.62|
The largest downward effect on inflation came from housing rent and clothing, with an impact of -0.68 and -0.45 percentage points, respectively. Telecommunication had a negative impact of -0.39 percentage points. Restaurants and cafés and nursing in hospital had an impact of -0.38 and -0.33 percentage points respectively. Furniture provided a negative impact of -0.21 percentage points. Tobacco and pharmaceutical products both have a negative impact of -0.17 and -0.16 percentage points respectively.
Sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation
|Sub-index||Weight (‰)||Effect on inflation (percentage point)|
|11.1.1||Restaurants and cafés||58.2||-0.38|
|06.3.0||Nursing in hospital||38.4||-0.33|
Comparison with neighbouring countries
Since the final HICP of the neighbouring countries will not be published until later, comparisons can only be made based on the first HICP flash estimate for September. This inflation amounted to 12.0% in September in Belgium. The Netherlands registered an inflation rate of 17.1% in September. This is an increase compared to 13.7% in August. In France, inflation was 6.2% in September, down from 6.6% in August. In Germany, inflation amounted to 10.9% in September, an increase compared to an inflation rate of 8.8% in August.
Since the HICP at constant tax rates for September are not yet published by Eurostat, August is the most recent month to use as a basis for comparison. Belgium's inflation rate based on the HICP-CT stood at 11.5% in August, up from a rate of 11.3% in July. In August, this inflation rate in Germany was 9.5%. This is an increase compared to July, when inflation was 9.1%. In France, inflation was 7.0% in August. This is a decrease compared to July, when the inflation rate based on the HICP-CT was 7.2%. In the Netherlands, inflation rose to 16.6% in August, while in July it was 14.3%.
 In addition to the national consumer price index (CPI), Statbel also calculates a European harmonised consumer price index (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HICP). The HICP is used to compare inflation rates in the EU Member States. To this end, the applied expenditure approach and methods have been coordinated as much as possible and laid down in European regulations. The results of the CPI and HICP are not the same. This is mainly due to a different weighting and composition of the basket of goods and services on which these indices are based.
The HICP is also used by the European Central Bank in its monetary policy. Additionally, the HICP is used to determine to what extent a Member State meets the inflation criteria set in the Treaty on European Union.
Differences between the HICP and the current CPI are:
- The weighting of the basket of goods and services in the HICP is mainly based on the national accounts. At lower detailed levels the Household Budget Survey is used. The CPI mostly uses the Household Budget Survey at all levels.
- The reference population of the HICP consists of private households (including tourists in Belgium) and institutional households (e.g. retirement homes and nursing homes). In the CPI, this population currently consists of private households with a reference person under a maximum age.
- The HICP uses the concept of domestic expenditure: expenditure in Belgium by the reference population. The CPI uses the concept of national expenditure: expenditure by the reference population irrespective of the location.
- Seasonal adjustment is not applied in the HICP, but is applied in the CPI to travels abroad and stays in holiday villages.
- Sales periods have been neutralised in the CPI , but are included in the same month in the HICP.
- Current prices for domestic heating oil are used in the HICP calculation. A weighted 12-month average is applied in the CPI calculation.
 The HICP-CT is calculated in the same way as the regular HICP, but the prices in this index are calculated based on constant tax rates. This index therefore reflects the theoretically potential effect of changes in indirect tax rates (such as VAT or excise duties) on measured inflation. However, this is a theoretical effect, since it presupposes that tax changes are immediately and entirely reflected in prices paid by consumers.
 The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.
 Inflation on annual basis measures the price changes between the current month and the same month of the year before. A 12-month average compares the average HICP of the last 12 months with the average of the previous 12 months. A monthly change compares the price levels of the last two months.
 The effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including the sub-index in the HICP. The effect not only takes the weight of the sub-index into account, but it also takes into account whether the sub-index inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall HICP).