Harmonised index of consumer prices - September 2018

Consumer prices
Harmonised index of consumer prices - September 2018
  • Belgium's inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) was running at 2.8% in September, up from 2.6% in August. Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) stands at 1.6 % in September, just like in July and August.
  • The inflation rate based on the consumer price index (CPI) for September stood at 2.4% compared to 2.2% in August. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the CPI is largely due to the larger weight of fuels and energy sources in the HICP and to the fact that no moving average is used for domestic heating oil in the HICP.
  • The sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation were motor fuels, domestic heating oil, gas, tobacco and fruit.
  • The sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation were housing rent, cultural services, clothing, restaurants, cafés and similar services and meat.
  • The harmonised index of consumer prices of September for the EU Member States will be published by Eurostat on 17 October.

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Inflation based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) stood at 2.8% in September, as against 2.6% in August. Inflation based on the harmonised index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT) was running at 2.7% in September and remained unchanged from August. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the HICP-CT is largely due to the changes in excise duties on motor fuels and tobacco. These increases are not taken into account in the HICP-CT.

Inflation and effect on inflation for the 12 main groups

Based on the breakdown into 12 main groups, the highest inflation rate in September was measured for "transport" (5.7%). The lowest inflation rate was measured for "clothing and footwear" (0.5%).

The main group with the largest upward effect on inflation in September was "housing, water, energy" with an effect on inflation of 0.5 percentage point. "Interior decoration and household appliances" and "recreation and culture" had both the largest downward effect on inflation, with -0.2 percentage point.

Inflation and effect on inflation for the overall HICP and 12 main groups

Product group Weight (‰) Inflation on annual basis (%) Effect on inflation (percentage point)
HICP HICP-CT
Jul/18 Aug/18 Sep/18 Sep/18 Jul/18 Aug/18 Sep/18
0 Total expenditure 1000.0 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.7      
1 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 164.1 2.6 1.8 2.6 2.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.1
2 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 48.8 4.7 4.9 5.0 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.1
3 Clothing and footwear 54.3 -1.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
4 Housing, water and energy 165.9 5.0 5.0 5.3 6.3 0.4 0.5 0.5
5 Interior decoration and household appliances 74.8 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
6 Health 77.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
7 Transport 122.2 5.8 6.0 5.7 4.6 0.4 0.5 0.4
8 Communication 32.0 -0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
9 Recreation and culture 90.7 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
10 Education 5.1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
11 Hotels, cafés and restaurants 79.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
12 Various goods and services 85.3 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.7 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Inflation according to specific aggregates

The overall HICP can be broken down into five specific aggregates which together form the total expenditure.

  • The inflation rate for fuels and energy sources remained unchanged. It amounts to 13.3%, just like in August. Prices increased on average by 1.2% compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 7.4%.
  • Inflation for processed food products stood at 3.0% in September, compared to 3.2% in August and 3.7% in July. Prices decreased on average by 0.4% compared to August.
  • Inflation for unprocessed food (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish) amounts to 3.2% in September compared to 1.2% in August and 2.0% in July. Prices increased on average by 1.0% compared to August. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 1.1%.
  • The inflation for non-energy industrial goods was running at 1.0% in September, up from 0.7% in August. Prices increased on average by 0.1% compared to August.
  • Inflation for services amounts to 1.5% in September compared to 1.6% in August and 1.5% in July. Prices declined on average by 1.1% compared to August as a result of the end of the summer leading to lower prices of airline tickets, among other things.

Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) amounts to 1.6 % in September and remains unchanged from August and July. Average core inflation over the last 12 months has also been 1.6%. Prices of this subaggregate decreased on average by 0.6% compared to the previous month.

 

Inflation according to specific aggregates

Specific aggregates Weight (‰) Inflation on annual basis (%) 12-month average (%) Monthly change
Jul/18 Aug/18 Sep/18 Sep/18 Sep/18
Total expenditure 1000.0 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.1 -0.3
Fuels and energy sources 99.5 13.4 13.3 13.3 7.4 1.2
Processed food products 134.6 3.7 3.2 3.0 3.3 -0.4
Unprocessed food 78.3 2.0 1.2 3.2 1.1 1.0
Non-energy industrial goods 272.2 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.1
Services 415.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 -1.1
HICP without energy and unprocessed food (core inflation) 822.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 -0.6

Effect of sub-indices on inflation

The largest upward effect on inflation was caused by motor fuels (0.44 percentage point). Domestic heating oil provided an effect of 0.40 percentage point. The impact of gas on inflation was 0.16 percentage point. Tobacco provided an effect of 0.12 percentage point. Finally, fruit provided an effect of 0.07 percentage point.

Sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation

Sub-index Weight (‰) Effect on inflation (percentage point)
2018 Sep/18
07.2.2 Motor fuels 33.4 0.44
04.5.3 Domestic heating oil 16.5 0.40
04.5.2 Gas 16.3 0.16
02.2.0 Tobacco 29.3 0.12
01.1.6 Fruit 10.9 0.07

The largest downward effect on inflation came from housing rent (-0.12 percentage point). Cultural services had an effect of -0.11 percentage point. Clothing provided an effect of -0.10 percentage point. Restaurants, cafés and similar services had an effect of -0.08 percentage point. Meat provided an effect of -0.07 percentage point.

 

Sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation

Sub-index Weight (‰) Effect on inflation (percentage point)
2018 Sept/18
04.1.0 Housing rent 62.3 -0.12
09.4.2 Cultural services 42.4 -0.11
03.1.2 Clothing 15.3 -0.10
11.1.1 Restaurants, cafés and similar services 67.9 -0.08
01.1.2 Meat 41.9 -0.07

Comparison with neighbouring countries

Since the HICP of the neighbouring countries will not be published until later, comparisons can only be made for the month of August.

In August, inflation in Belgium was running at 2.6%, down from the 2.7% registered in July. The Netherlands registered an inflation rate of 2.1% in August; an increase compared to an inflation rate of 1.9% in July. Inflation in France in August amounted to 2.6% and remained stable compared to July. Inflation in Germany in August amounted to 1.9%, registering a decrease compared to 2.1% in July.

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Inflation based on the HICP-CT in Belgium stood at 2.5 % in August, unchanged from July. In Germany, this inflation amounted to 1.9%, just like the regular HICP inflation. In France, inflation remained unchanged from July at 1.9%. Inflation in the Netherlands in August amounted to 1.7%, up from 1.5% in July.

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