- Belgium's inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) was running at 2.9 % in November compared to 3.2 % in October. Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) stood at 1.6 % in November, which is the case since July.
- The inflation rate based on the consumer price index (CPI) for November stood at 2.8 %, just like in October. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the CPI is largely due to the larger weight of fuels and energy sources in the HICP and to the fact that no moving average is used for domestic heating oil in the HICP.
- The sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation were motor fuels, domestic heating oil, electricity, gas and tobacco.
- Most of the downward pressure on inflation in November came from rents, clothing, meat and cultural services.
- The harmonised index of consumer prices for the EU member states of November will be published by Eurostat on 17th December.
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Inflation of the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) amounted to 2.9 % in November compared to 3.2 % in October. Inflation based on the harmonised index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT) was running at 2.7 % in November, down from 3.1 % in October. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the HICP-CT is largely due to the changes in excise duties on motor fuels and tobacco. These increases are not taken into account in the HICP-CT.
Inflation and effect on inflation for the 12 main groups
Based on the breakdown into 12 main groups, the highest inflation rate in November was measured for "housing, water, energy" (6.6 %). The lowest inflation rate was measured for "clothing and footwear" (0.5 %).
The main group with the largest upward effect on inflation in November was "housing, water and energy" with an effect on inflation of 0.7 percentage point. "Food and non-alcoholic beverages", "interior decoration and household appliances" and "recreation and culture" had the largest downward effect on inflation, with -0.2 percentage point each.
Inflation and effect on inflation for the overall HICP and 12 main groups
| Product group | Weight (‰) | Inflation on annual basis (%) | Effect on inflation | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HICP | HICP-CT | ||||||||
| Sep/18 | Oct/18 | Nov/18 | Nov/18 | Sep/18 | Oct/18 | Nov/18 | |||
| 0 | Total expenditure | 1000.0 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.7 | |||
| 1 | Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 164.1 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| 2 | Alcoholic beverages and tobacco | 48.8 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 3 | Clothing and footwear | 54.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| 4 | Housing, water and energy | 165.9 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5 | Interior decoration and household appliances | 74.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| 6 | Health | 77.2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 7 | Transport | 122.2 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 8 | Communication | 32.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 9 | Recreation and culture | 90.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| 10 | Education | 5.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 11 | Hotels, cafés and restaurants | 79.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 2.4 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| 12 | Various goods and services | 85.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
Inflation according to specific aggregates
The overall HICP can be broken down into five specific aggregates which together form the total expenditure.
- The inflation rate for fuels and energy sources has gone down. It was running at 13.9 % in November compared to 17.2 % in October. Prices decreased on average by 0.3 % compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 8.7 %.
- Inflation for processed food products stood at 2.9 % in November, compared to 3.4 % in October and 3.0 % in September. Prices increased on average by 0.2 % compared to October.
- Inflation for unprocessed food (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish) amounts to 1.8 % in November compared to 2.4 % in October and 3.2% in September. Prices decreased on average by 0.7 % compared to October. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 1.4 %.
- The inflation for non-energy industrial goods was running at 1.0 % in November, unchanged from October and September. Prices increased on average by 0.1 % compared to October.
- Inflation for services was running at 1.7 % in November, an increase compared to the 1.5 % inflation rate registered in October. Prices decreased on average by 0.3 % compared to October.
Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) amounts to 1.6 % in November and remains unchanged from October, September, August and July. Average core inflation over the last 12 months has also been 1.6 %. Prices of this subaggregate decreased on average by 0.1 % compared to the previous month.
Inflation according to specific aggregates
| Specific aggregates | Weight (‰) | Inflation on annual basis (%) | 12-month average (%) | Monthly change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep/18 | Oct/18 | Nov/18 | Nov/18 | Nov/18 | ||
| Total expenditure | 1000.0 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | -0.2 |
| Fuels and energy sources | 99.5 | 13.3 | 17.2 | 13.9 | 8.7 | -0.3 |
| Processed food products | 134.6 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 0.2 |
| Unprocessed food | 78.3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | -0.7 |
| Non-energy industrial goods | 272.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| Services | 415.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | -0.3 |
| HICP without energy and unprocessed food (core inflation) | 822.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | -0.1 |
Effect of sub-indices on inflation
The largest upward effect on inflation was caused by motor fuels (0.33 percentage point). Domestic heating oil provided an effect of 0.30 percentage point. Electricity provided an effect of 0.26 percentage point. The impact of gas on inflation was 0.25 percentage point. Finally, tobacco provided an effect of 0.12 percentage point.
Sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation
| Sub-index | Weight (‰) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Nov/18 | ||
| 07.2.2 | Motor fuels | 33.4 | 0.33 |
| 04.5.3 | Domestic heating oil | 16.5 | 0.30 |
| 04.5.1 | Electricity | 32.4 | 0.26 |
| 04.5.2 | Gas | 16.3 | 0.25 |
| 02.2.0 | Tobacco | 29.3 | 0.12 |
The largest downward effect on inflation came from housing rent (-0.13 percentage point). Clothing and meat had an effect of -0.11 percentage point. Finally, cultural services had an effect of -0.09 percentage point.
Sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation
| Sub-index | Weight (‰) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Nov/18 | ||
| 04.1.0 | Housing rent | 62.3 | -0.13 |
| 03.1.2 | Clothing | 42.4 | -0.11 |
| 01.1.2 | Meat | 41.9 | -0.11 |
| 09.4.2 | Cultural services | 15.3 | -0.09 |
Comparison with neighbouring countries
Since the HICP of the neighbouring countries will not be published until later, comparisons can only be made for the month of October.
In October, inflation in Belgium was running at 3.2 %, up from the 2.8 % registered in September. The Netherlands registered an inflation rate of 1.9 % in October; an increase compared to an inflation rate of 1.6 % in September. Inflation in France in October amounted to 2.5 % and remained stable compared to September. Inflation in Germany in October amounted to 2.4 %, an increase compared to 2.2 % in September.
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Belgium's inflation rate based on the HICP-CT stood at 3.1 % in October, up from a rate of 2.7 % in September. In Germany, this inflation amounted to 2.4 %, just like the regular HICP inflation. In France, this inflation remained unchanged from September at 1.8 %. This inflation in the Netherlands in October amounted to 1.4 %, up from 1.1 % in September.
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