- Belgium's inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) amounted to 2.8% in May compared to 3.1% in April and 3.6% in March.
- Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) stood at 2.8% in May compared to 3.0% in April.
- The inflation rate based on the consumer price index (CPI) for May stood at 2.01% compared to 2.55% in April.
- The sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation were tobacco, electricity, natural gas, domestic services and restaurants and cafés.
- However, the sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation were motor fuels, clothing, liquid fuels.
- The harmonised index of consumer prices of May for the EU Member States will be published by Eurostat on 18 June.
The inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP)[1] amounted to 2.8% in May compared to 3.1% in April and 3.6% in March. The inflation rate based on the harmonised index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT)[2] was 2.4% in May, versus 2.6% in April and 2.8% in March. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the HICP-CT is largely due to the increase in excise duties on tobacco. Indeed, these modifications to taxation are not taken into account in the HICP-CT.
Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stands at 2.8% in May, compared to 3.0% in April and 3.1% in March. Inflation without energy decreases to 2.7%, compared to 3.0% April.
Inflation for food products and non-alcoholic beverages amounts to 2.6% this month versus 2.7% the previous month. Inflation for oils amounts to 4.3% this month compared to 6.1% in April. For dairy products, inflation decreased to 3.2% from 3.6% last month. Fish registers this month an inflation rate of 0.0% compared to 0.2% in April. Bread and cereals register in May an inflation rate of 2.5%, or a decrease compared to the rate of 2.6% observed in April. Inflation for meat amounts to 3.2% this month compared to 2.4% in April.
The contribution of energy to inflation is now 0.4%, which is a decrease compared to last month (0.5%). Food products also provide a contribution of 0.4%.
Electricity is now 16.0% more expensive than a year ago. Natural gas registers an inflation rate of 10.1% compared to May last year. Domestic heating oil prices have gone down by 17.8% compared to last year.
Inflation and effect on inflation for the 12 main groups
Based on the breakdown into 12 main groups, the highest inflation rate in May was measured for “Alcoholic beverages and tobacco” (11.0%). The lowest inflation rate was measured for “Clothing and footwear” (-2.3%). The main group with the largest upward effect on inflation in May was “Housing, water and energy” with an effect of 0.7 percentage point. The largest downward effect was measured for “Transport” (-0.5 percentage points).
Inflation[3] and effect[4] on inflation for the overall HICP and 12 main groups
| Product group | Weight (‰) | Inflation on annual basis (%) | Impact on inflation (% point) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HICP | HICP-CT | ||||||||
| Mar/25 | Apr/25 | May/25 | May/25 | Mar/25 | Apr/25 | May/25 | |||
| 0 | Total expenditure | 1.000 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.4 | |||
| 1 | Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 146.2 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 2 | Alcoholic beverages and tobacco | 55.6 | 15.9 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | Clothing and footwear | 63.6 | -3.3 | -2.0 | -2.3 | -2.3 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.3 |
| 4 | Housing, water and energy | 165.4 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5 | Interior decoration and household appliances | 60.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 6 | Health | 94.8 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 7 | Transport | 109.6 | -0.8 | -1.3 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| 8 | Communication | 30.6 | -1.2 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| 9 | Recreation and culture | 92.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| 10 | Education | 4.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 11 | Hotels, cafés and restaurants | 88.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 12 | Various goods and services | 87.4 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Inflation according to specific aggregates
The overall HICP can be broken down into five specific aggregates which together form the total expenditure.
- The inflation rate for fuels and energy sources decreased compared to the previous month. In May, it amounted to 2.9% compared to 4.3% in April and 8.5% in March. Prices decreased by 3.3% on average compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 13.6 %.
- Inflation for processed food products stood at 5.5% in May, compared to 5.9% in April and 6.9% in March. Prices have increased by 0.3% on average compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate for the last twelve months is 6.3%.
- Inflation for unprocessed food (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish) amounts to 1.3% in May compared to 1.9% in April and 0.7% in March. Prices increased by 0.1% on average compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 1.8 %.
- Inflation for non-energy industrial goods stood at -0.1% in May compared to 0.2% in April and -0.1% in March. Prices decreased by 0.1% on average compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 0.5 %.
- Inflation for services (including rents) has decreased to 3.5% in May compared to 3.6% in April and in March. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 3.9 %. Prices increased by 0.4% on average compared to the previous month.
Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) stood at 2.8% in May. This is a decrease compared to the 3.0% rate registered in April. Average core inflation over the last 12 months amounts to 3.4 %. Prices of this subaggregate have increased by 0.2% on average compared to the previous month.
Inflation according to specific aggregates
| Specific aggregates | Weight (‰) | Inflation on annual basis (%) | 12-month average (%) | Monthly change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar/25 | Apr/25 | May/25 | May/25 | May/25 | ||
| Total expenditure | 1,000,0 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 4.3 | -0.1 |
| Energy products | 94.3 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 13.6 | -3.3 |
| Processed food products | 164.0 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 0.3 |
| Unprocessed food products | 37.8 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 0.1 |
| Non-energy industrial goods | 260.8 | -0.1 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 |
| Services | 443.1 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 0.4 |
| HICP without energy and unprocessed food (core inflation) | 867.8 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 0.2 |
Effect of sub-indices on inflation
The largest upward effect on inflation was caused by tobacco (0.51 percentage points). Electricity provided an upward effect of 0.45 percentage points. Gas provided an upward effect of 0.24 percentage points. Domestic services had a positive impact of 0.14 percentage points. Finally, restaurants and cafés had a positive effect of 0.12 percentage points.
Sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation
| Sub-index | Weight (‰) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | May/25 | ||
| 02.2.0 | Tobacco | 37.9 | 0.51 |
| 04.5.1 | Electricity | 32.5 | 0.45 |
| 04.5.2 | Gas | 23.4 | 0.24 |
| 05.6.2 | Domestic services | 6.9 | 0.14 |
| 11.1.1 | Restaurants and cafés | 80.2 | 0.12 |
The largest downward effect on inflation came from motor fuels (-0.36 percentage points). Clothing had a negative effect of -0.29 percentage points. Liquid fuels had a downward impact of -0.24 percentage points.
Sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation
| Sub-index | Weight (‰) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | May/25 | ||
| 03.1.2 | Fuels and lubricants | 28.0 | -0.36 |
| 07.2.2 | Clothing | 46.7 | -0.29 |
| 04.5.3 | Liquid fuels | 9.5 | -0.24 |
Comparison with neighbouring countries
Since the final HICP of the neighbouring countries will not be published until later, comparisons can only be made based on the first HICP flash estimate for May. The HICP in Belgium in May amounted to 2.8%, a decrease compared to the rate of 3.1% observed in April. The Netherlands registered an inflation rate of 3.0% in May, a decrease compared to an inflation rate of 4.1% in April. In France, inflation in May has slightly decreased to 0.6%. The rate observed in April was 0.9%. The first HICP flash estimate for May in Germany was 2.1%, a slight decrease compared to April when it was 2.2%.
Since the HICP at constant tax rates for May are not yet published by Eurostat, April is the most recent month to use as a basis for comparison. Belgium's inflation rate based on the HICP-CT stood at 2.6% in April, slightly down from a rate of 2.8% observed in March. In Germany, this inflation was 2.1 % in April, as in March. Inflation in France also remained stable at 0.6% in April, as in March. In the Netherlands, inflation increased to 3.5% in April compared to 2.7% in March.
[1] In addition to the national consumer price index (CPI), Statbel also calculates a European harmonised consumer price index (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HICP). The HICP is used to compare inflation rates in the EU Member States. To this end, the applied expenditure approach and methods have been coordinated as much as possible and laid down in European regulations. The results of the CPI and HICP are not the same. This is mainly due to a different weighting and composition of the basket of goods and services on which these indices are based.
The HICP is also used by the European Central Bank in its monetary policy. Additionally, the HICP is used to determine to what extent a Member State meets the inflation criteria set in the Treaty on European Union.
Differences between the HICP and the current CPI are:
- The weighting of the basket of goods and services in the HICP is mainly based on the national accounts. At lower detailed levels the Household Budget Survey is used. The CPI mostly uses the Household Budget Survey at all levels.
- The reference population of the HICP consists of private households (including tourists in Belgium) and institutional households (e.g. retirement homes and nursing homes). In the CPI, this population currently consists of private households with a reference person under a maximum age.
- The HICP uses the concept of domestic expenditure: expenditure in Belgium by the reference population. The CPI uses the concept of national expenditure: expenditure by the reference population irrespective of the location.
- Seasonal adjustment is not applied in the HICP, but is applied in the CPI to travels abroad and stays in holiday villages.
- Sales periods have been neutralised in the CPI , but are included in the same month in the HICP.
- Current prices for domestic heating oil are used in the HICP calculation. A weighted 12-month average is applied in the CPI calculation.
[2] The HICP-CT is calculated in the same way as the regular HICP, but the prices in this index are calculated based on constant tax rates. This index therefore reflects the theoretically potential effect of changes in indirect tax rates (such as VAT or excise duties) on measured inflation. However, this is a theoretical effect, since it presupposes that tax changes are immediately and entirely reflected in prices paid by consumers.
[3] Inflation on annual basis measures the price changes between the current month and the same month of the year before. A 12-month average compares the average HICP of the last 12 months with the average of the previous 12 months. A monthly change compares the price levels of the last two months.
[4] The effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including the sub-index in the HICP. The effect not only takes the weight of the sub-index into account, but it also takes into account whether the sub-index inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall HICP).