- Belgium's inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) was running at 2.3 % in May compared to 1.6 % in April. Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) was running at 1.6 % in May, against 1.5 % in April.
- The inflation rate based on the consumer price index (CPI) for May stood at 1.8 % compared to 1.5 %. The difference in inflation growth rates between the HICP and the CPI is largely due to the larger weight of fuels and energy sources in the HICP and to the fact that no moving average is used for domestic heating oil in the HICP. You will find more information on the difference between the HICP and the CPI in the technical explanation below.
- The sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation were domestic heating oil, motor fuels, tobacco, fruit and dairy products.
- The sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation in May were electricity, telecommunication, vegetables, housing rent and clothing.
- The harmonised index of consumer prices of May for the EU Member States will be published by Eurostat on 15 June.
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The inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) was running at 2.3 % in May, against 1.6 % in April. Inflation based on the harmonised index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT) was running at 2.1 % in May, up from 1.5 % in April. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the HICP-CT is largely due to the changes in excise duties on motor fuels and tobacco. These increases are not taken into account in the HICP-CT.
Inflation and effect on inflation for the 12 main groups
Based on the breakdown into 12 main groups, the highest inflation rate in May was measured for "Alcoholic beverages and tobacco" (4.6 %). The lowest inflation rate was measured for "communication" (-0.5 %).
The main group with the largest upward effect on inflation in May was "Transport" with an effect of 0.3 percentage point. "Clothing and footwear", "interior decoration and household appliances", "communication", "recreation and culture" and "various goods and services" had all of them a downward effect on inflation of -0.1 percentage point.
Inflation and effect on inflation for the overall HICP and 12 main groups
| Product group | Weight (‰) | Inflation on annual basis (%) | Effect on inflation | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HICP | HICP-CT | ||||||||
| Mar/18 | Apr/18 | May/18 | May/18 | Mar/18 | Apr/18 | May/18 | |||
| 0 | Total expenditure | 1000.0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 | |||
| 1 | Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 164.1 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 2 | Alcoholic beverages and tobacco | 48.8 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | Clothing and footwear | 54.3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 4 | Housing, water and energy | 165.9 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 4.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 5 | Interior decoration and household appliances | 74.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 6 | Health | 77.2 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| 7 | Transport | 122.2 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| 8 | Communication | 32.0 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 9 | Recreation and culture | 90.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Education | 5.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 11 | Hotels, cafés and restaurants | 79.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 12 | Various goods and services | 85.3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Inflation according to specific aggregates
The overall HICP can be broken down into five specific aggregates which together form the total expenditure.
- The inflation rate for fuels and energy sources has gone up. It was running at 8.2 % in May, against 3.5 % in April and 1.0 % in March. Prices increased on average by 2.7 % compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 4.9 %.
- Inflation for processed food products stood at 3.5 % in May, compared to 3.6 % in April and 3.7 % in March. On average, prices remained stable compared to April.
- Inflation for unprocessed food (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish) was running at 2.2 % in May compared to 0.6 % in April. Prices decreased on average by 0.5 % compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 0.1 %.
- The inflation for non-energy industrial goods was running at 0.7 % in May, up from 0.6 % in April. Prices increased on average by 0.2 % compared to the previous month.
- Inflation for services rose to 1.6 % in May, up from 1.3 % in April. Prices increased on average by 0.1 % compared to the previous month.
Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) was running at 1.6 % in May, registering an increase compared to the inflation rate of 1.5 % measured in April. Prices of this subaggregate increased on average by 0.1 % compared to the previous month.
Inflation according to specific aggregates
| Specific aggregates | Weight (‰) | Inflation on annual basis (%) | 12-month average (%) | Monthly change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar/18 | Apr/18 | May/18 | May/18 | May/18 | ||
| Total expenditure | 1000.0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| Fuels and energy sources | 99.5 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.7 |
| Processed food products | 134.6 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 0.0 |
| Unprocessed food | 78.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 0.1 | -0.5 |
| Non-energy industrial goods | 272.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Services | 415.4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.1 |
| HICP without energy and unprocessed food (core inflation) | 822.2 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.1 |
Effect of sub-indices on inflation
The largest upward effect on inflation was caused by domestic heating oil and motor fuels, both with an impact of 0.32 percentage point. Tobacco provided an effect of 0.13 percentage point. Fruit provided an effect of 0.09 percentage point. Finally, milk, cheese and eggs had an effect of 0.07 percentage point.
Sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation
| Sub-index | Weight (‰) | Effect on inflation(percentage point) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | May/18 | ||
| 04.5.3 | Domestic heating oil | 16.5 | 0.32 |
| 07.2.2 | Motor fuels | 33.4 | 0.32 |
| 02.2.0 | Tobacco | 29.3 | 0.13 |
| 01.1.6 | Fruit | 10.9 | 0.09 |
| 01.1.4 | Milk, cheese and eggs | 20.0 | 0.07 |
The largest downward effect on inflation came from electricity (-0.12 percentage point). Telecommunication and vegetables had both a contribution of -0.09 percentage point. Housing rent provided an effect of -0.08 percentage point. Clothing provided an effect of -0.07 percentage point.
Sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation
| Sub-index | Weight (‰) | Effect on inflation(percentage point) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | May/18 | ||
| 04.5.1 | Electricity | 32.4 | -0.12 |
| 08.3.0 | Telecommunication | 30.0 | -0.09 |
| 01.1.7 | Vegetables | 15.8 | -0.09 |
| 04.1.0 | Housing rent | 62.3 | -0.08 |
| 03.1.2 | Clothing | 42.4 | -0,07 |
Comparison with neighbouring countries
Since the HICP of the neighbouring countries will not be published until later, comparisons can only be made for the month of April.
In April, inflation in Belgium was running at 1.6 %, up from the 1.5 % registered in March. The Netherlands registered an inflation rate of 0.7 % in April; a decrease compared to an inflation rate of 1.0 % in March. Inflation in France in April amounted to 1.8 %, up from 1.7 % in March. Inflation in Germany was running at 1.4 % in April, down from 1.5 % in March.
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Belgium's inflation rate based on the HICP-CT stood at 1.5 % in April, up from a rate of 1.4 % in March. In Germany, it was running at 1.4 %, down from 1.5 % in March. This inflation rate in France went up from 1.1 % in March to 1.2 % in April. In the Netherlands, it was running at 0.4 % in April, down from 0.8 % in March.
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