- Belgium's inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) was running at 2.6% in June compared to 2.3% in May. Core inflation (inflationwithout energy and unprocessed food) was running at 1.7% in June, against 1.6% in May.
- The inflation rate based on the consumer price index (CPI) for June stood at 2.1% compared to 1.8% in May. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the CPI is largely due to the larger weight of fuels and energy sources in the HICP and to the fact that no moving average is used for domestic heating oil in the HICP. You will find more information on the difference between the HICP and the CPI in the technical explanation below.
- The sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation were motor fuels, domestic heating oil, tobacco and gas.
- The sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation in June were housing rent, telecommunication, electricity and clothing.
- The harmonised index of consumer prices of June for the EU Member States will be published by Eurostat on 18 July.
/hicp2018-06a_en.png)
Inflation based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) was running at 2.6% in June, up from 2.3% in May. Inflation based on the harmonised index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT) stood at 2.5% in June, as against 2.1% in May. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the HICP-CT is largely due to the changes in excise duties on motor fuels and tobacco. These increases are not taken into account in the HICP-CT.
Based on the breakdown into 12 main groups, the highest inflation rate in June was measured for "transport" (5.4%). The lowest inflation rate was measured for "communication" (-0.4%).
main group with the largest effecton inflation in June was "Transport" with an effect of 0.4 percentage point. "Clothing and footwear", "interior decoration and household appliances", “health”, "communication", "recreation and culture", “hotels, cafés and restaurants” and "various goods and services" had all of them a downward effect on inflation of -0.1 percentage point.
Inflation and effect on inflation for the overall HICP and 12 main groups
| Product group | Weight (‰) | Inflation on annual basis (%) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HICP | HICP-CT | ||||||||
| Apr/18 | May/18 | Jun/18 | Jun/18 | Apr/18 | May/18 | Jun/18 | |||
| 0 | Total expenditure | 1000.0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | |||
| 1 | Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 164.1 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | Alcoholic beverages and tobacco | 48.8 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 3 | Clothing and footwear | 54.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 4 | Housing, water and energy | 165.9 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| 5 | Interior decoration and household appliances | 74.8 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 6 | Health | 77.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 7 | Transport | 122.2 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 8 | Communication | 32.0 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 9 | Recreation and culture | 90.7 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Education | 5.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 11 | Hotels, cafés and restaurants | 79.6 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| 12 | Various goods and services | 85.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
The overall HICP can be broken down into five specific aggregates which together form the total expenditure.
- The inflation rate for fuels and energy sources has gone up. It was running at 11.3% in June, as against 8.2% in May and 3.5% in April. Prices increased on average by 1.9% compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 5.5%.
- Inflation for processed food products stood at 3.7% in June, compared to 3.5% in May and 3.6% in April. Prices increased on average by 0.4% compared to May.
- Inflation for unprocessed food (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish) amounts to 2.2%, unchanged from the previous month. Prices decreased on average by 0.2% compared to May. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 0.4%.
- The inflation for non-energy industrial goods was running at 0.9% in June, up from 0.7% in May. Prices decreased on average by 0.1% compared to May.
- Inflation for services was running at 1.6% in June, unchanged from the previous month. Prices increased on average by 0.2% compared to May.
Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) was running at 1.7% in June, registering an increase compared to the inflation rate of 1.6% measured in May. Prices of this subaggregate increased on average by 0.1 % compared to the previous month.
Inflation according to specific aggregates
| Specific aggregates | Weight (‰) | Inflation on annual basis (%) | 12-month average (%) | Monthly change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr/18 | May/18 | Jun/18 | Jun/18 | Jun/18 | ||
| Total expenditure | 1000.0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| Fuels and energy sources | 99.5 | 3.5 | 8.2 | 11.3 | 5.5 | 1.9 |
| Processed food products | 134.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 0.4 |
| Unprocessed food | 78.3 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.4 | -0.2 |
| Non-energy industrial goods | 272.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | -0.1 |
| Services | 415.4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.2 |
| HICP without energy and unprocessed food (core inflation) | 822.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.1 |
Effect of sub-indices on inflation
The largest upward effect on inflation was caused by motor fuels (0.44 percentage point). Domestic heating oil provided an effect of 0.41 percentage point. Tobacco provided an effect of 0.12 percentage point. Finally, gas provided an effect of 0.07 percentage point.
Sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation
| Sub-index | Weight (‰) | Effect on inflation | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | juni/2018 | ||
| 07.2.2 | Motor fuels | 33.4 | 0.44 |
| 04.5.3 | Domestic heating oil | 16.5 | 0.41 |
| 02.2.0 | Tobacco | 29.3 | 0.12 |
| 04.5.2 | Gas | 16.3 | 0.07 |
The largest downward effect on inflation came from housing rent (-0.11 percentage point). Telecommunication and electricity had both a contribution of -0.10 percentage point. Clothing provided an effect of -0.09 percentage point.
Sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation
| Sub-index | Weight (‰) | Effect on inflation | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | juni/2018 | ||
| 04.1.0 | Housing rent | 62.3 | -0.11 |
| 08.3.0 | Telecommunication | 30.0 | -0.10 |
| 04.5.1 | Electricity | 32.4 | -0.10 |
| 03.1.2 | Clothing | 42.4 | -0.09 |
Comparison with neighbouring countries
Since the HICP of the neighbouring countries will not be published until later, comparisons can only be made for the month of May.
In May, inflation in Belgium was running at 2.3%, up from the 1.6% registered in April. The Netherlands registered an inflation rate of 1.9% in May; an increase compared to an inflation rate of 1.0% in April. Inflation in France in May amounted to 2.3%, up from 1.8% in April. Inflation in Germany in May amounted to 2.2%, up from 1.4% in April.
/hicp2018-06b_enbis.png)
Belgium's inflation rate based on the HICP-CT stood at 2.1% in May, up from a rate of 1.5% in April. In Germany, it was running at 2.2%, up from 1.4% in April. This inflation rate in France went up from 1.2% in April to 1.6% in May. Inflation in the Netherlands in May amounted to 1.5%, up from 0.7% in April.
/hicp2018-06c_enbis.png)