- Belgium's inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) remains stable in January at 4.4%, just like in December.
- Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) stood at 2.5% in January versus 3.5% in December.
- The inflation rate based on the consumer price index (CPI) for January stood at 4.08% compared to 3.16% in December.
- The sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation were natural gas, tobacco, electricity and domestic services.
- The sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation were clothing, motor fuels, telecommunications, footwear, furniture and meat.
- The harmonised index of consumer prices of January for the EU Member States will be published by Eurostat on 24 February.
Inflation based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP)[1] was running at 4.4% in January, just as in December. The inflation rate based on the harmonised index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT)[2] was running at 3.5% in January compared to 3.6% in December and 3.8% in November. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the HICP-CT is largely due to the change in excise duties on tobacco and natural gas. These tax changes are not taken into account in the HICP-CT.
Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, amounts to 2.5% in January, compared to 3.5% in December and 3.8% in November. Inflation without energy has gone down to 2.5% in January from 3.4% in December.
Inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages now stands at 2.4% compared to 1.7% in the previous month. Oil inflation stands at 7.6% this month, just as in December. For dairy products, inflation is now 2.4% compared to 0.7% last month. Fish has an inflation rate of 2.7% this month, versus 1.7% in December. Bread and cereals register an inflation rate of 2.0%, up from 1.7% in December. Meat inflation amounts to 2.1% this month compared to 1.3% last month.
The contribution of energy to inflation has been negative from January 2023 to February 2024. This inflation is now 2.2%, an increase compared to last month (1.4%). As described below, the energy inflation increases. This is not only an increase in the energy cost, but also a consequence of the extinction of the 12-month impact of the basic packages in the index. Food products provide a contribution of 0.4%.
Electricity is now 26.7% more expensive than a year ago. Natural gas is 77.2% more expensive than in January last year. The price of domestic heating oil has fallen by 2.0% compared to last year.
Inflation and impact of the 12 main groups on inflation
Based on the breakdown into 12 main groups, the highest inflation rate in January was measured for “Alcoholic beverages and tobacco” (18.9%). The lowest inflation rate (-15.3%) was measured for “Clothing and footwear”. The main group with the largest upward effect on inflation in January was “Housing, water and energy”, with an effect of 2.2 percentage points. The largest downward effect was measured for “Clothing and footwear” with -1.3 percentage points.
Inflation[3] and effect[4] on inflation for the overall HICP and 12 main groups
| Product group | Weight (‰) | Inflation on annual basis (%) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HICP | HICP-CT | ||||||||
| Nov/24 | Dec/24 | Jan/25 | Jan/25 | Nov/24 | Dec/24 | Jan/25 | |||
| 0 | Total expenditure | 1.000 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | |||
| 1 | Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 146.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 2.4 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| 2 | Alcoholic beverages and tobacco | 55.6 | 18.9 | 19.0 | 18.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 3 | Clothing and footwear | 63.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | -15.3 | -15.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -1.3 |
| 4 | Housing, water and energy | 165.4 | 13.4 | 11.3 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| 5 | Interior decoration and household appliances | 60.3 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.2 |
| 6 | Health | 94.8 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| 7 | Transport | 109.6 | -0.4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | -0.7 | -0.4 | -0.3 |
| 8 | Communication | 30.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| 9 | Recreation and culture | 92.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| 10 | Education | 4.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 11 | Hotels, cafés and restaurants | 88.7 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 12 | Various goods and services | 87.4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
Inflation according to specific aggregates
The overall HICP can be broken down into five specific aggregates which together form the total expenditure.
- Inflation for energy products increased compared to the previous month. It was running at 22.8% in January compared to 13.7% in December and 14.8% in November. Prices increased on average by 4.7% compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 14.7%.
- Inflation for processed food products stood at 7.5% in January, compared to 6.9% in December and November. Prices increased by 2.5% on average compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate for the last twelve months is 5.7%.
- Inflation for unprocessed food (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish) amounts to 1.7% in January compared to 1.5% in December and 2.2% in November. Prices increased on average by 1.1% compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 2.1%.
- Inflation for non-energy industrial goods was running at -3.3% in January compared to 0.8% in December and 1.7% in November. Prices decreased by 7.2% on average compared to the previous month, mainly due to the sales period. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 1.0%.
- Inflation for services (including rents) increased to 4.1% in January compared to 3.7% in December and 3.8% in November. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 4.3%.
Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) stands at 2.5% in January. This is a decrease compared to the 3.5% registered in December. The average core inflation over the last 12 months amounts to 3.6%. Prices of this subaggregate decreased by 1.5% on average compared to the previous month.
Inflation according to specific aggregates
| Specific aggregates | Weight (‰) | Inflation on annual basis (%) | 12-month average (%) | Monthly change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov/24 | Dec/24 | Jan/25 | Jan/25 | Jan/25 | ||
| Total expenditure | 1,000.0 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.6 | -0.8 |
| Fuels and energy sources | 94.3 | 14.8 | 13.7 | 22.8 | 14.7 | 4.7 |
| Processed food products | 164.0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 |
| Unprocessed food | 37.8 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Non-energy industrial goods | 260.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | -3.3 | 1.0 | -7.2 |
| Services | 443.1 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 0.5 |
| HICP without energy and unprocessed food (core inflation) | 867.8 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3.6 | -1.5 |
Effect of sub-indices on inflation
The largest upward effect on inflation was caused by natural gas with an impact of 1.31 percentage points. Tobacco provided an effect of 0.78 percentage points. Electricity provided an effect of 0.73 percentage points. Finally, household services had an effect of 0.12 percentage points.
Sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation
| Sub-index | Weight (‰) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Jan/25 | ||
| 04.5.2 | Natural gas | 23.4 | 1.31 |
| 02.2.0 | Tobacco | 37.9 | 0.78 |
| 04.5.1 | Electricity | 32.5 | 0.73 |
| 05.6.2 | Domestic services | 6.9 | 0.12 |
The largest downward effect on inflation came from clothing (-1.13 percentage points). Motor fuels provided a negative impact of -0.17 percentage points. Telecommunications had an impact of -0.15 percentage points. Footwear had a downward effect of -0.14 percentage points. Furniture provided a negative impact of -0.13 percentage points. Finally, meat provided a negative effect of -0.12 percentage points.
Sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation
| Sub-index | Weight (‰) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Jan/25 | ||
| 03.1.2 | Clothes | 46.7 | -1.13 |
| 07.2.2 | Motor fuels | 28.0 | -0.17 |
| 08.3.0 | Telecommunications | 28.0 | -0.15 |
| 03.2.0 | Footwear | 14.8 | -0.14 |
| 05.1.1 | Furniture | 22.0 | -0.13 |
| 01.1.2 | Meat | 32.6 | -0.12 |
Comparison with neighbouring countries
Since the final HICP of the neighbouring countries will not be published until later, comparisons can only be made based on the first HICP flash estimate for January. In January, this inflation in Belgium amounted to 4.4%, remaining stable from December. The Netherlands experienced an inflation rate of 2.9% in January. This is a decrease compared to an inflation rate of 3.9% in December. Inflation in France remained stable in January at 1.8%, just like in December. The first HICP flash estimate for January in Germany was 2.8% and remained stable compared to December.
Since the HICP at constant tax rates for January are not yet published by Eurostat, December is the most recent month to use as a basis for comparison. Belgium's inflation rate based on the HICP-CT stood at 3.6% in December, slightly down from a rate of 3.8% in November. This inflation rate in Germany rose to 2.3% in December compared to 1.8% in November and October. In France, this inflation rate slightly increased to 1.4% in December compared to 1.3% in November. In the Netherlands, it went up to 3.0% from 2.8% in November.
[1] In addition to the national consumer price index (CPI), Statbel also calculates a European harmonised consumer price index (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HICP). The HICP is used to compare inflation rates in the EU Member States. To this end, the applied expenditure approach and methods have been coordinated as much as possible and laid down in European regulations. The results of the CPI and HICP are not the same. This is mainly due to a different weighting and composition of the basket of goods and services on which these indices are based.
The HICP is also used by the European Central Bank in its monetary policy. Additionally, the HICP is used to determine to what extent a Member State meets the inflation criteria set in the Treaty on European Union.
Differences between the HICP and the current CPI are:
- The weighting of the basket of goods and services in the HICP is mainly based on the national accounts. At lower detailed levels the Household Budget Survey is used. The CPI mostly uses the Household Budget Survey at all levels.
- The reference population of the HICP consists of private households (including tourists in Belgium) and institutional households (e.g. retirement homes and nursing homes). In the CPI, this population currently consists of private households with a reference person under a maximum age.
- The HICP uses the concept of domestic expenditure: expenditure in Belgium by the reference population. The CPI uses the concept of national expenditure: expenditure by the reference population irrespective of the location.
- Seasonal adjustment is not applied in the HICP, but is applied in the CPI to travels abroad and stays in holiday villages.
- Sales periods have been neutralised in the CPI , but are included in the same month in the HICP.
- Current prices for domestic heating oil are used in the HICP calculation. A weighted 12-month average is applied in the CPI calculation.
[2] The HICP-CT is calculated in the same way as the regular HICP, but the prices in this index are calculated based on constant tax rates. This index therefore reflects the theoretically potential effect of changes in indirect tax rates (such as VAT or excise duties) on measured inflation. However, this is a theoretical effect, since it presupposes that tax changes are immediately and entirely reflected in prices paid by consumers.
[3] Inflation on annual basis measures the price changes between the current month and the same month of the year before. A 12-month average compares the average HICP of the last 12 months with the average of the previous 12 months. A monthly change compares the price levels of the last two months.
[4] The effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including the sub-index in the HICP. The effect not only takes the weight of the sub-index into account, but it also takes into account whether the sub-index inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall HICP).