- Belgium's inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices was running at 1.8 % in January compared to 2.1 % in December.
- Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) stood at 1.7 % in January compared to 1.8 % in December.
- The sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation were tobacco, dairy products, domestic heating oil, gas and accommodation.
- Most of the downward pressure on inflation in January came from package holidays, electricity, vegetables and cultural services.
- The harmonised index of consumer prices of January for the EU Member States will be published by Eurostat on 23rd February.
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Inflation of the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) amounted to 1.8 % in January compared to 2.1 % in December. Inflation based on the harmonised index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT) was running at 1.7 % in January, down from 1.9 % in December. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the HICP-CT is largely due to the changes in excise duties on motor fuels and tobacco. These increases are not taken into account in the HICP-CT.
Inflation and effect on inflation for the 12 main groups
Based on the breakdown into 12 main groups, the highest inflation rate in January was measured for "Alcoholic beverages and tobacco" (4.0 %). The lowest inflation rate was measured for "recreation and culture" (-1.2 %).
The main groups with the largest upward effect on inflation in January were "Food and non-alcoholic beverages", "Alcoholic beverages and tobacco", "Health" and "Hotels, cafés and restaurants", all of them with an effect on inflation of 0.1 percentage point. The largest downward effect was measured for "recreation and culture" (-0.3 percentage point).
Inflation and effect on inflation for the overall HICP and 12 main groups
| Product group | Weight (‰) | Inflation on annual basis (%) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HICP | HICP-CT | ||||||||
| nov/2017 | dec/2017 | jan/2018 | jan/2018 | nov/2017 | dec/2017 | jan/2018 | |||
| 0 | Total expenditure | 1000.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | |||
| 1 | Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 164.1 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
| 2 | Alcoholic beverages and tobacco | 48.8 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 3 | Clothing and footwear | 54.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | Housing, water and energy | 165.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | Interior decoration and household appliances | 74.8 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 6 | Health | 77.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 7 | Transport | 122.2 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 8 | Communication | 32.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| 9 | Recreation and culture | 90.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 | -1.2 | -1.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 |
| 10 | Education | 5.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 11 | Hotels, cafés and restaurants | 79.6 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 12 | Various goods and services | 85.3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Inflation according to specific aggregates
The overall HICP can be broken down into five specific aggregates which together form the total expenditure.
- The inflation rate for fuels and energy sources has gone down. It was running at 2.6 % in January compared to 5.6 % in December and 9.2 % in November. Prices increased on average by 0.4 % compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 8.8 %.
- Inflation for processed food products stood at 3.5 % in January, compared to 3.2 % in December and 2.6 % in November. Prices increased by 1.0 % on average compared to December.
- Inflation for unprocessed food (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish) amounted to 0.7 % in January from 0.8 % in December. Prices increased by 0.3 % on average compared to December. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is -0.1 %.
- The inflation for non-energy industrial goods was running at 1.3 % in January, up from 0.9 % in the previous month. Prices decreased by 4.5 % on average compared to December mainly due to the sales period.
- Inflation for services fell to 1.5 % in January, down from 1.9 % in December. Prices decreased on average by 0.4 % compared to December.
Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) was running at 1.7 % in January, registering a slight decrease compared to the inflation rate of 1.8 % measured in December. Prices of this subaggregate decreased on average by 1.5 % compared to the previous month.
Inflation according to specific aggregates
| Specific aggregates | Weight (‰) | Inflation on annual basis (%) | 12-month average (%) | Monthly change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nov/2017 | dec/2017 | jan/2018 | jan/2018 | jan/2018 | ||
| Total expenditure | 1000.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.1 | -1.2 |
| Fuels and energy sources | 99.5 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 8.8 | 0.4 |
| Processed food products | 134.6 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| Unprocessed food | 78.3 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 0.3 |
| Non-energy industrial goods | 272.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | -4.5 |
| Services | 415.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -0.4 |
| HICP without energy and unprocessed food (core inflation) | 822.2 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | -1.5 |
Effect of sub-indices on inflation
The largest upward effect on inflation was caused by tobacco (0.11 percentage point). Milk, cheese and eggs had an effect of 0.08 percentage point. Domestic heating oil, gas and accommodation had an effect of 0.07 percentage point each.
Sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation
| Sub-index | Weight (‰) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | jan/2018 | ||
| 02.2.0 | Tobacco | 29,3 | 0,11 |
| 01.1.4 | Milk, cheese and eggs | 20,0 | 0,08 |
| 04.5.3 | Domestic heating oil | 16,5 | 0,07 |
| 04.5.2 | Gas | 16,3 | 0,07 |
| 11.2.0 | Accommodation | 8,5 | 0,07 |
The largest downward effect on inflation came from package holidays (-0.12 percentage point). Electricity provided an effect of -0.11 percentage point. Vegetables provided an effect of -0.10 percentage point. Finally, cultural services provided an effect of -0.08 percentage point.
Sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation
| Sub-index | Weight (‰) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | jan/2018 | ||
| 09.6.0 | Package holidays | 15,6 | -0,12 |
| 04.5.1 | Electricity | 32,4 | -0,11 |
| 01.1.7 | Vegetables | 15,8 | -0,10 |
| 09.4.2 | Cultural services | 15,3 | -0,08 |
Comparison with neighbouring countries
Since the HICP of the neighbouring countries will not be published until later, comparisons can only be made for the month of December.
In December, inflation in Belgium was running at 2.1 %, unchanged from November. The Netherlands registered an inflation rate of 1.2 % in December; a decrease compared to an inflation rate of 1.5 % in November. Inflation in France was running at 1.2 % in December, unchanged from November. Inflation in Germany was running at 1.6 % in December, down from 1.8 % in November
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Inflation based on the HICP-CT in Belgium stood at 1.9 % in December, also unchanged from November. This inflation rate in Germany went down from 1.8 % in November to 1.6 % in December. This inflation rate in France went slightly down from 1.1 % in November to 1.0 % in December. Inflation in the Netherlands was running at 1.2 % in December, down from 1.5 % in November.
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