Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices - February 2018

Consumer prices
Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices - February 2018
  • Belgium's inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices was running at 1.5 % in February compared to 1.8 % in January.
  • Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) stood at 1.6 % in February compared to 1.7 % in January.
  • The sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation were tobacco, dairy products and accommodation.
  • Most of the downward pressure on inflation in February came from vegetables, electricity and cultural services.
  • The harmonised index of consumer prices of February for the EU Member States will be published by Eurostat on 16th March.

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Inflation based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) was running at 1.5 % in February compared to 1.8 % in January. Inflation based on the harmonised index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT) was running at 1.4 % in February, down from 1.7 % in January. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the HICP-CT is largely due to the changes in excise duties on motor fuels and tobacco. These increases are not taken into account in the HICP-CT.

Inflation and effect on inflation for the 12 main groups

Based on the breakdown into 12 main groups, the highest inflation rate in February was measured for "Alcoholic beverages and tobacco" (4.8 %). The lowest inflation rate was measured for "recreation and culture" (-0.4 %).

The main group with the largest upward effect on inflation in February was "Alcoholic beverages and tobacco" with an effect on inflation of 0.2 percentage point. The largest downward effect was measured for "recreation and culture" (-0.2 percentage point).

Inflation and effect on inflation for the overall HICP and 12 main groups

Product group Weight (‰) Inflation on annual basis (%) Effect on inflation (percentage point)
HICP HICP-CT
Dec
2017
Jan
2018
Feb
2018
Jan
2018
Dec
2017
Jan
2018
Feb
2018
0 Total expenditure 1.000,0 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.4      
1 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 164.4 1.7 2.0 1.4 1.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0
2 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 49.7 4.3 4.0 4.8 2.7 0.1 0.1 0.2
3 Clothing and footwear 59.2 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1
4 Housing, water and energy 159.3 3.2 1.8 1.3 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
5 Interior decoration and household appliances 74.9 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
6 Health 78.7 2.1 2.7 2.3 2.3 0.0 0.1 0.1
7 Transport 117.6 2.5 2.0 1.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.1
8 Communication 33.2 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0
9 Recreation and culture 93.3 0.5 -1.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2
10 Education 6.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
11 Hotels, cafés and restaurants 78.2 3.6 3.0 3.0 3.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12 Various goods and services 85.3 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

Inflation according to specific aggregates

The overall HICP can be broken down into five specific aggregates which together form the total expenditure.

  • The inflation rate for fuels and energy sources has gone down. It was running at 1.6 % in February compared to 2.6 % in January and 5.6 % in December. Prices decreased on average by 0.5 % compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 7.1 %.
  • Inflation for processed food products stood at 3.5 % in February just like in January. It stood at 3.2 % in December. Prices increased on average by 0.4 % compared to January.
  • Inflation for unprocessed food (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish) was running at -0.2 % in February compared to 0.7 % in January. Prices increased on average by 0.1 % compared to January. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is -0.3 %.
  • The inflation for non-energy industrial goods was running at 0.8 % in February, down from 1.3 % in the previous month. Prices increased on average by 4.9 % compared to January, mainly due to the winter sales in January.
  • Inflation for services was running at 1.5 % in February, unchanged from the previous month. Prices increased on average by 0.8 % compared to January.

Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) was running at 1.6 % in February, registering a slight decrease compared to the inflation rate of 1.7 % measured in January. Prices of this subaggregate increased on average by 2.1 % compared to the previous month.

Inflation according to specific aggregates

Specific aggregates Weight (‰) Inflation on annual basis (%) 12-month average (%) Monthly change
Dec/2017 Jan/2018 Feb/2018 Feb/2018 Feb/2018
Total expenditure 1000.0 2.1 1.8 1.5 2.0 1.6
Fuels and energy sources 99.5 5.6 2.6 1.6 7.1 -0.5
Processed food products 134.6 3.2 3.5 3.5 2.5 0.4
Unprocessed food 78.3 0.8 0.7 -0.2 -0.3 0.1
Non-energy industrial goods 272.2 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.9 4.9
Services 415.4 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.8 0.8
HICP without energy and unprocessed food (core inflation) 822.2 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 2.1

Effect of sub-indices on inflation

The largest upward effect on inflation was caused by tobacco (0.15 percentage point). Milk, cheese and eggs had an effect of 0.10 percentage point. Accommodation provided an effect of 0.07 percentage point.

Sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation

Sub-index Weight (‰) Effect on inflation (percentage point)
2018 Feb/2018
02.2.0 Tobacco 29.3 0.15
01.1.4 Milk, cheese and eggs 20.0 0.10
11.2.0 Accommodation 8.5 0.07

The largest downward effect on inflation came from vegetables (-0.17 percentage point). Electricity provided an effect of -0.09 percentage point. Finally, cultural services provided an effect of -0.08 percentage point.

Sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation

Sub-index Weight (‰) Effect on inflation (percentage point)
2018 Feb/2018
01.1.7 Vegetables 15.8 -0.17
04.5.1 Electricity 32.4 -0.09
09.4.2 Cultural services 15.3 -0.08

Comparison with neighbouring countries

Since the HICP of the neighbouring countries will not be published until later, comparisons can only be made for the month of January.

In January, inflation in Belgium was running at 1.8 %, down from the 2.1 % registered in December. The Netherlands registered an inflation rate of 1.5 % in January; an increase compared to an inflation rate of 1.2 % in December. Inflation in France in January amounted to 1.5 %, also an increase compared to 1.2 % in December. Inflation in Germany was running at 1.4 % in January, down from 1.6 % in December.

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Belgium's inflation rate based on the HICP-CT stood at 1.7 % in January, down from a rate of 1.9 % in December. This inflation rate in Germany also went down from 1.6 % in December to 1.4 % in January. This inflation rate in France went slightly up from 1.0 % in December to 1.1 % in January. Inflation in the Netherlands in January amounted to 1.3 %, slightly up from 1.2 % in December.

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