Some 111,300 deaths were provisionally recorded in Belgium in 2023. That is about 5,000 fewer deaths than the previous year, or a 4.3% decrease compared to 2022. Compared to a broader reference period, namely the average for 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2022, this is a decrease of 0.6%. The decline is most visible in the Brussels-Capital Region and the Walloon Region, and is observed among all age groups except those over 85. This is what emerged from a first, provisional overview of the number of deaths in the year 2023, for all causes of death, from Statbel, the Belgian statistical office.
The publication contains the provisional number of deaths for all Belgian municipalities in 2023 and is based on the 13 January 2024 extraction from the National Register. Also in 2024, Statbel will update the mortality figures weekly on Fridays.
This publication compares the number of deaths in 2023 with the number of deaths in 2022 and the average number of deaths in the period 2018-2019-2021-2022. In this reference period, the year 2020 was excluded because the coronavirus pandemic in that year had a major impact on the number of deaths. Further scientific research should reveal the impact of the population structure on the number of deaths [1].
Sciensano also publishes a detailed analysis today, specifically on the under-mortality observed in 2023 compared to the mortality expected according to their Be-MOMO model. This analysis is available on their website. Small differences between Statbel's figures and Sciensano's Be-MOMO model are possible. This can be explained by methodological differences, such as the exclusion of deaths that took place abroad by Sciensano, as well as the different methodology to calculate the expected number of deaths.
Deaths decrease by 0.6% compared to the average for 2018-2019-2021-2022
With roughly 111,300 deaths in 2023, there is a 4.3% decrease compared to 2022. But a comparison with a wider reference period is more interesting. The number of deaths fluctuates from year to year due to various factors, such as the intensity of the flu season, the measured summer temperatures or air pollution. The average for the years 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2022 is 112,015 deaths. Even if we compare with that average, the number of deaths in 2023 is somewhat lower: about 700 fewer deaths or a 0.6% decrease.
Decrease in particular in the Brussels-Capital Region and in the Walloon Region
Behind the decrease in the number of deaths in Belgium are regional differences. For the broader reference period (2018-2019-2021-2022), we see a decrease in the number of deaths in 2023: -3.2% in the Brussels-Capital Region and -1.6% in the Walloon Region. In the Flemish Region, the number of deaths remained virtually the same as this broader average (+0.3%).
Compared to 2022, in 2023 the number of deaths decreased by 3.3% in Brussels, by 4.2% in Flanders and by 4.7% in Wallonia.
It is possible that the difference in the population structure between the regions plays a role. For example, on 01/01/2023, Flanders had the highest proportion of people over 85 (3.3%), followed by Wallonia (2.6%) and Brussels (2.1%). More in-depth analyses are needed to clarify the effect of differences in the population structure [1].
Table 1: Evolution of the number of deaths in Belgium and the Regions from 2018 to 2023.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Evolution 2023 vs 2022 (in %) | Evolution 2023 vs average for 2018-2019-2021-2022 (in %) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 110,645 | 108,745 | 126,850 | 112,291 | 116,380 | 111,329 | -4.3% | -0.6% |
| Flemish Region | 63,397 | 62,420 | 70,919 | 64,508 | 67,528 | 64,659 | -4.2% | +0.3% |
| Walloon Region | 38,329 | 37,409 | 44,947 | 38,934 | 39,938 | 38,053 | -4.7% | -1.6% |
| Brussels-Capital Region | 8,919 | 8,916 | 10,984 | 8,849 | 8,914 | 8,617 | -3.3% | -3.2% |
Mortality decreases, except among over-85s
The number of deaths among men decreased by 0.9% in 2023, compared to the average for the years 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2022. The number of deaths among women also slightly decreased, by 0.3% Compared to 2022 only, there is a strong decrease among women (-4.8%) and men (-3.8%).
At the age group level, we see a decrease in the number of deaths among all age groups, with the exception of the over-85s. Compared to the average for 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2022, the number of deaths in 2023 decreased by 7.0% among the 1-24-year-olds [2], by 0.4% among the 25-44-year-olds, by 6.5% among the 45-64-year-olds, by 2.0% among the 65-74-year-olds and by 0.8% among the 75-84-year-olds. Among people over 85, the number of deaths increased by 2.1%.
The changing population structure most likely plays an important role in the increase in the number of deaths observed only among those over 85 in 2023. The number of people aged over 85 has been on the rise for quite a few years. Between 01/01/2018 and 01/01/2013, there is an increase of 6.8% in the number of people over 85. This at least partly explains why, despite the overall decline in 2023, the number of deaths is rising among the over-85s. More in-depth analyses are needed to clarify the effect of the changing population structure on the number of death per age [1].
Table 2: Evolution of the number of deaths per age group from 2018 to 2023
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Evolution 2023 vs 2022 (in %) | Evolution 2023 vs average for 2018-2019-2021-2022 (in %) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-24 years old [2] | 567 | 531 | 515 | 555 | 566 | 516 | -8.8% | -7.0% |
| 25-44 years old | 2,192 | 2,129 | 2,175 | 2,275 | 2,199 | 2,190 | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| 45-64 years old | 13,639 | 13,139 | 13,950 | 13,373 | 13,096 | 12,453 | -4.9% | -6.5% |
| 65-74 years old | 17,615 | 17,690 | 20,170 | 19,421 | 19,103 | 18,088 | -5.3% | -2.0% |
| 75-84 years old | 29,334 | 28,244 | 33,562 | 30,035 | 30,240 | 29,219 | -3.4% | -0.8% |
| 85+ years old | 46,857 | 46,586 | 56,106 | 46,290 | 50,841 | 48,638 | -4.3% | +2.1% |
If we compare mortality by month, 2023 shows specific periods with a lower number of deaths than usual: February to April and the summer months of July and August. Somewhat more deaths than usual were recorded in January and, to a lesser extent, in June and September. The causes are likely diverse.
December 2022 was marked by an above-average number of deaths due to an interaction of several factors, including the higher circulation of the flu and RSV viruses [3]. These factors probably also had their impact on the number of deaths in January 2023, which was slightly above expectations.
This was followed by a spring in which the number of deaths was somewhat lower than average.
June and September were characterised by slightly higher temperatures, which is also reflected in the number of deaths being slightly above average in both months. During the summer months of July and August, temperatures were somewhat lower than in past summers, which translates into a somewhat lower number of deaths in these months.
Finally, the number of deaths in the months of October, November and December was around the average for the period 2018-2019-2021-2022.
The final results on causes of death will be studied to better understand the causes of the mortality in the different periods.
Table 3: Evolution of the number of deaths per month from 2018 to 2023.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Evolution 2023 vs 2022 (in %) | Evolution 2023 vs average for 2018-2019-2021-2022 (in %) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 10,360 | 10,468 | 10,217 | 10,698 | 10,452 | 11,210 | +7.3% | +6.8% |
| February | 10,089 | 9,766 | 9,387 | 8,952 | 9,847 | 9,396 | -4.6% | -2.8% |
| March | 12,202 | 9,998 | 11,586 | 9,349 | 10,519 | 10,257 | -2.5% | -2.5% |
| April | 8,971 | 8,901 | 15,449 | 9,468 | 10,310 | 8,805 | -14.6% | -6.5% |
| May | 8,559 | 8,829 | 9,449 | 9,201 | 9,137 | 8,904 | -2.6% | -0.3% |
| June | 7,793 | 8,276 | 7,992 | 8,150 | 8,726 | 8,638 | -1.0% | +4.9% |
| July | 8,918 | 8,755 | 8,004 | 8,467 | 9,004 | 8,240 | -8.5% | -6.2% |
| August | 8,499 | 8,242 | 9,847 | 8,274 | 9,196 | 8,423 | -8.4% | -1.5% |
| September | 8,044 | 8,003 | 8,189 | 8,309 | 8,613 | 8,441 | -2.0% | +2.4% |
| October | 8,666 | 8,888 | 10,752 | 9,772 | 9,646 | 9,097 | -5.7% | -1.6% |
| November | 8,729 | 8,867 | 14,035 | 10,304 | 9,010 | 9,235 | +2.5% | +0.1% |
| December | 9,815 | 9,752 | 11,943 | 11,347 | 11,920 | 10,683 | -10.4% | -0.2% |
Situation in historical data
Statbel has historical data with the number of deaths per year since 1841 and per month since 1919. With the historical dataset, we can also compare gross mortality rates. These are calculated as the ratio of the number of deaths to the total population. The gross mortality rate generally shows a downward trend. This trend was interrupted by the coronavirus pandemic. Of the 183 years observed since 1841, 2023 ranks 181st with a gross mortality rate of 9.5 per mille. This is a lot better than the 147th place of 2020, year marked by the Covid pandemic, with 11.0 per mille, and also better than the 165th place of 2022 with 10.0 per mille. Only two years had lower gross mortality rates than 2023, namely 2014 and 2019. Possible explanations for the low gross mortality rate in 2023 are the small number of public health risk factors (meteorological and other environmental factors) and the harvesting effect. The harvesting effect is a decrease in the number of deaths, due to early deaths of vulnerable people during the COVID-19 epidemic.
[1] The best known example is the age distribution. This is subject to change over the years and therefore has an impact on the number of deaths in the population.
[2] The registration of the number of deaths in 2023 among people under 1 year old is still too incomplete to be able to compare mortality rates correctly in the 0-24 age group, hence the choice to limit the age group to 1-24-year-olds.
[3] RSV (Respiratory Syncytial Virus) is the main cause of respiratory infections among babies under 1 year old.