Consumer price index

Inflation amounts to 3.18%

Consumer prices
Inflation amounts to 3.18%

Consumer price index for March 2024

  • In March, inflation has remained stable and went from 3.20% to 3.18%.
  • The consumer price index has increased by 0.72 points or 0.55% this month.
  • Inflation based on the health index has fallen from 3.22% to 3.09%.
  • The smoothed health index amounted to 127.99 points in March.
  • Food inflation (including alcoholic beverages) has decreased for the 12th month in a row and now stands at 3.21% versus 4.65% in February. The contribution of food products to inflation currently amounts to 0.67 percentage points.
  • Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, has decreased for the 10th month in a row and now stands at 3.85% in March, versus 4.25% in February.
  • The most significant price increases in March were registered for fruit, natural gas, the maintenance and repair of vehicles, chcolate and confectionery, clothes, travels abroad and holiday villages. However, alcoholic beverages and vegetables have had a decreasing effect on the index.

Inflation amounts to 3.18% in March compared to 3.20% in February and 1.75% in January. Inflation based on the health index amounted to 3.09% this month compared to 3.22% in February and 1.71% in January. Inflation without energy decreased to 3.86%, compared to 5.04% in February and 5.01% in January. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stood at 3.85% in March, compared to 4.25% in February and 4.70% in January.

Comment on inflation

With regard to energy, we have seen since March 2023 a negative inflation. It now stands at -1.61%, compared to -5.34% last month and -22.30% in January. For electricity, inflation is currently at -14.9% compared to -12.2% last month. For natural gas, it went from -3.6% last month to 29% this month. Compared to last month, natural gas prices increased by 10.3% and those for electricity decreased by 0.4%. These increases of the last months are due to the gradual phase-out of the impact of the basic package for electricity and natural gas. Prices for domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, have decreased by 4.0% in one year. Motor fuels cost 2.2% more than in March last year and increased by 0.7% this month compared to the previous month.

Inflation for services has slightly increased to 5.04% from 4.92%. Inflation for rents has decreased to 5.62% from 5.72%. Food inflation (including alcoholic beverages) now stands at 3.21% compared to 4.65% last month. This inflation rate has sharply increased since early 2022 to peak at 17.02% in March 2023. Since then, it has gradually decreased to 3.21% in March 2024.

The decrease in overall inflation, which peaked at 12.27% in September 2022, can be associated with lower energy prices. Energy inflation goes from -5.34% in February to -1.61% in March and accounts for -0.29 percentage points to total inflation. With an inflation of 3.21%, food products account for 0.67 percentage points.

Prices of natural gas have increased by 10.3% compared to the previous month. The price of electricity has decreased by 0.4% on average this month. As mentioned above, this is not an increase in the pure energy cost, but a consequence of the extinction of the 12-month impact of the basic packages in the index.

Some products and services that rose sharply in price compared to March last year are:

Upward: Inflation
Fresh seafood 44.5%
Olive oil 31.3%
Natural gas 29.0%
Other tobacco products (loose tobacco) 22.6%
Non-alcoholic beers 19.7%
Potatoes 16.0%
Light beers 15.7%
Newspapers 14.7%

Some products and services that fell sharply in price compared to March last year are:

Downward: Inflation
Electricity -14.9%
Mobile telephone equipment -13.4%
Computers (laptops) -12.2%
Mobile telephone services -9.7%
Video equipment (television) -8.8%
Whole milk -8.4%
Low fat milk -8.3%
Accessories for computers -8.1%

The main group with the largest upward effect[i] on inflation in March was “Hotels, cafés and restaurants” with an effect of 0.18 percentage points. The largest downward effect was measured for “Housing, water and energy” (-0.43 percentage points).

The main group with the largest contribution[ii] to inflation is “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” with 0.60 percentage points. The lowest contribution to inflation was registered by the main group “Education”, with 0.06 percentage points.

The first inflation estimate according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP flash estimate) for Belgium amounts to 3.8% in March 2024.

Comment on the level of the indices

The consumer price index rose by 0,72 points or 0.55% in March 2024 and now stands at 131.73 points, compared to 131.01 points in February 2024 (2013=100). The health index has increased by 0.80 points to 131.75 points in March, compared to 130.95 points in February. The smoothed health index amounted to 127.99 points in March. The next central index for public service and social benefits is set at 128.11 points.

The most significant price increases in March were registered for fruit, natural gas, the maintenance and repair of vehicles, chocolate and confectionery, clothes, travels abroad and holiday villages. However, alcoholic beverages and vegetables have had a decreasing effect on the index.

The most important trends this month are:

Upward: Effect: Downward: Effect:
Fruit +0.170 points Alcoholic beverages -0.075 points
Natural gas +0.165 points Vegetables -0.055 points
Maintenance and repair of vehicles +0.070 points    
Chocolate and confectionery +0.065 points    
Clothes +0.060 points    
Travels abroad +0.055 points    
Holiday villages +0.055 points    

The price of fruit increased by 8.8%. Natural gas was on average 10.3% more expensive this month. The maintenance and repair of motor vehicles cost on average 1.5% more this month. Chocolate and confectionery costs on average 4.3% more. Prices for clothes have increased by 1.1% compared to last month. Travels abroad increased by 1.9% on average. Holiday villages are 5.5% more expensive this month.

The price of alcoholic beverages has decreased by 3.1% on average this month. Vegetables are 1.9% cheaper compared to the previous month.

2013 = 100 December January February March
Consumer price index 129.45 130.08 131.01 131.73
Inflation 1.35% 1.75% 3.20% 3.18%
Health index 129.53 130.19 130.95 131.75
Smoothed health index* 125.91 126.56 127.21 127.99
* defined in the law of 23 April 2015 on the promotion of employment (Belgian Official Journal of 27 April 2015)

 


[i] The effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall CPI).

[ii] The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.

Indices
Content

Consumer price index, inflation, health index, health index (moving average), index without energy and petroleum, last 13 months

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Base year
Inflation
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4 groups
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Purpose and brief description

The consumer price index is an economic indicator whose main task is to objectively reflect the price evolution over time for a basket of goods and services purchased by households and considered representative of their consumer habits. The index does not necessarily measure the price level of this basket for a specific period of time, but rather the fluctuation between two periods, the first one acting as basis for comparison. Moreover, this difference in the price level is not measured in absolute, but in relative terms. The consumer price index can be determined as a hundred times the ratio between the observed prices of a range of goods and services at a given time and the prices of the same goods and services, observed under the same circumstances during the reference period, chosen as basis for comparison. Price observations always take place in the same regions.

Since 2014, the consumer price index has been a chain index in which the weighting reference period is regularly shifted and prices and quantities are no longer compared between the current period and a fixed reference period, but the current period is compared with an intermediate period. By multiplying these short-term indices, and so creating a chain, we get a long-term series with a fixed reference period.

Population

Belgian private households

Data collection method and possible sampling

Survey technique applied using a computer, based on the use of electronic questionnaires and laptops.

Frequency

Monthly.

Timing of publication

The results are available on the penultimate working day of the reference period.

Definitions

Weight (CPI): The weight represents the importance of the goods and services included in the CPI in the total expenditure patterns of the households. Weights are determined based on the household budget survey.

Consumer price index (CPI): The consumer price index is an economic indicator whose main task is to objectively reflect the price evolution over time for a basket of goods and services purchased by households and considered representative of their consumer habits.

Health index: The health index is derived from the consumer price index and has been published since January 1994. The current value of this index is determined by removing a number of products from the consumer price index product basket, in particular alcoholic beverages (bought in a shop or consumed in a bar), tobacco products and motor fuels except for LPG.

Inflation: Inflation is defined as the ratio between the value of the consumer price index of a given month and the index of the same month the year before. Therefore, inflation measures the rhythm of the evolution of the overall price level.

Consumer price index without petroleum products: This index is calculated by removing the following products from the consumer price index: butane, propane, liquid fuels and motor fuels.

Consumer price index without energy products: This index is calculated by removing the following products from the consumer price index: electricity, natural gas, butane, propane, liquid fuels, solid fuels and motor fuels.

Smoothed index: The smoothed health index, also called smoothed index (the average value of the health indexes of the last 4 months) is used as a basis for the indexation of retirement pensions, social security benefits and some salaries and wages. Public wages and social benefits are indexed as soon as the smoothed index reaches a given value, called the central index. The smoothed index is also called moving average.

In order to perform a 2% index jump (laid down in the Law of 23 April 2015 on employment promotion), the smoothed health index has been temporarily blocked at its value of March 2015 (100.66). The smoothed health index was then reduced by 2% from April 2015. When the reduced smoothed health index (also called the reference index) had increased again by 2% or in other words when it had exceeded the value of 100.66, the index was no longer blocked. It occurred in April 2016.

Since April 2016 the smoothed health index is calculated in the same manner as the reference index and therefore corresponds to the arithmetical mean of the health indexes of the last 4 months multiplied by a factor of 0.98.

The central index is a predetermined threshold value against which the smoothed health index is compared. If the central index is reached or exceeded, there is an indexation of the wages and salaries or benefits. This indexation is proportional to the percentage between the old and the new central index. For the public sector and social benefits, the difference between the central indices always amounts to 2 %. Therefore, a 2 % indexation is applied every time the central index is reached. There are also collective labour agreements according to which the difference between the central indices amounts to 1 % or 1.5 %. The reaching of a central index then leads to an indexation of 1 % or 1,5 %.
See also: https://bosa.belgium.be/nl/themas/werken-bij-de-overheid/verloning-en-voordelen/loonwedde/indexatie/indexatie-algemene
And : https://bosa.belgium.be/fr/themes/travailler-dans-la-fonction-publique/remuneration-et-avantages/traitement/indexation-0

An effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall CPI).

The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.

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