Consumer price index of September 2020
- Inflation increases from 0.82 % to 0.90 % in September.
- The consumer price index fell by 0.41 point or 0.37 % this month.
- Inflation based on the health index has increased to 1.11 %, up from 1.04 %.
- The smoothed health index is running at 107.85 points in September.
- The most significant price increases in September were registered for private rents, travels abroad and city trips, natural gas and alcoholic beverages. However, hotel rooms, bread and cereals, airplane tickets, non-alcoholic beverages, vegetables and potatoes, liquid fuels, sugar, jam and chocolate, motor fuels, personal care, meat, milk, cheese and eggs, holiday villages and camping sites as well as package holidays in Belgium have had a decreasing effect on the index.
The consumer price index amounts to 109.42 points in September 2020. This index decreases by 0.41 point. Inflation has risen from 0.82 % to 0.90 %. The health index has lost 0.42 point to 109.78 points. Inflation based on the health index has increased from 1.04 % to 1.11 %. The most significant price increases were registered for private rents, travels abroad and city trips, natural gas and alcoholic beverages. However, hotel rooms, bread and cereals, airplane tickets, non-alcoholic beverages, vegetables and potatoes, liquid fuels, sugar, jam and chocolate, motor fuels, personal care, meat, milk, cheese and eggs, holiday villages and camping sites as well as package holidays in Belgium have had a decreasing effect on the index.
The consumer price index fell by 0.41 point or 0.37 % in September 2020 and now stands at 109.42 points, compared to 109.83 points in August 2020 (2013=100).
The health index decreased by 0.42 point to 109.78 points in September, compared to 110.20 points in August. The smoothed health index is running at 107.85 points in September. The next central index for public service and social benefits is set at 109.34 points.
Products with the largest upward effect in September were private rents, travels abroad and city trips, natural gas and alcoholic beverages. However, hotel rooms, bread and cereals, airplane tickets, non-alcoholic beverages, vegetables and potatoes, liquid fuels, sugar, jam and chocolate, motor fuels, personal care, meat, milk, cheese and eggs, holiday villages and camping sites as well as package holidays in Belgium have had a decreasing effect on the index. The most important trends this month are:
| Upward: | Effect: | Downward: | Effect: |
|---|---|---|---|
| Private rents | +0.025 point | Hotel rooms | -0.100 point |
| Travels abroad and city trips | +0.020 point | Bread and cereals | -0.060 point |
| Natural gas | +0.020 point | Airplane tickets | -0.055 point |
| Alcoholic beverages | +0,020 point | Non-alcoholic beverages | -0.055 point |
| Vegetables and potatoes | -0.055 point | ||
| Liquid fuels | -0.050 point | ||
| Sugar, jam and chocolate | -0.050 point | ||
| Motor fuels | -0.040 point | ||
| Personal care | -0.035 point | ||
| Meat | -0.035 point | ||
| Milk, cheese and eggs | -0.030 point | ||
| Holiday villages and camping sites | -0.030 point | ||
| Package holidays in Belgium | -0.025 point |
In September, prices for private rents increased by 0.3 % on average compared to the previous month. Prices for travels abroad and city trips increased by 1.1 % on average. Natural gas rose by 1.4 % on average compared to the previous month. Compared to the previous month, the consumer had to pay on average 0.9 % more for alcoholic beverages.
Compared to the previous month, hotel rooms were on average 12.3 % cheaper, and bread and cereals 1.8 %. Airplane tickets cost on average 7.9 % less. Prices for non-alcoholic beverages, vegetables and potatoes, sugar, jam and chocolate, fell by respectively 2.8 %, 1.0 % and 4.2 %, this month. Liquid fuels and motor fuels also dropped by 4.3 % and 1.1 % on average. Prices dropped by 1.2 % for personal care, by 0.9 % for meat and by 1.4 % for milk, cheese and eggs. After seasonal adjustment, prices for holiday villages and camping sites fell by 5.8 %. Package holidays in Belgium are on average 7.2 % cheaper.
Inflation now stands at 0.90 % compared to 0.82 % in August and 0.73 % in July. Inflation based on the health index amounted to 1.11 % this month compared to 1.04 % in August and 1.00 % in July. Inflation without energy has gone up to 1.96 % in September, compared to 1.82 % last month and 1.78 % in July. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stands at 1.64 % in September, compared to 1.49 % in August and 1.31 % in July.
Food inflation (including alcoholic beverages) now stands at 3.66 % compared to 3.56 % last month and 3.48 % in July. Fresh fruit were 12.7 % more expensive than in September 2019. Fresh vegetables are 4.3 % more expensive than a year ago. These price increases are largely the result of a lower supply of some products due to lower harvests because of poorer weather conditions. Fish and seafood are 7.7 % more expensive than in September 2019, mainly due to price increases for shrimps due to a shortage of peeled shrimps due to measures against Covid-19 in Morocco. Meat is 3.2 % more expensive than in September 2019. This is mainly the result of the price increase of pork due to the increased demand from China on the European market, due to the African swine fever last year. Prices for non-alcoholic beverages are now on average 1.9 % higher than in September last year. Alcoholic beverages are now 4.9 % more expensive than a year ago. Tobacco prices have gone up by 1.7 % compared to September 2019.
Energy inflation is now running at -9.18 %, compared to -8.68 % last month and -9.14 % in July. Electricity is now 6.1 % less expensive than a year ago. Natural gas is 14.4 % less expensive on an annual basis. Prices for domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, have decreased by 17.6 % in a year. Motor fuels are now 7.4 % less expensive than a year ago. Inflation for services has increased to 1.54 % from 1.33 %. Inflation for rents amounted to 2.34 % in August and slightly increased to 2.60 % in September.
Some products and services that rose sharply in price compared to September last year are:
| Upward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Fresh seafood | 38.4% |
| Postal mail | 13.8% |
| Fresh fruit | 12.7% |
| Jewellery | 12.1% |
| Accessories for computers (e.g. printers) | 9.1% |
| Pork | 8.2% |
| Other medical products n.e.c. (e.g. clinical thermometers) | 8.1% |
| Preserved milk | 7.7% |
Some products and services that dropped sharply in price compared to September last year are:
| Downward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Liquid fuels | -17.6% |
| Natural gas | -14.4% |
| Holiday centres, camping sites, youth hostels and similar accommodation services | -14.0% |
| Diesel | -11.2% |
| Passenger transport by air | -9.4% |
| Pre-recorded recording media | -7.5% |
| Electricity | -6.1% |
| Pharmaceutical products | -5.1% |
The main group with the largest upward effect[i] on inflation in September was “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” with an effect of 0.56 percentage point. The largest downward effect was measured for “Housing, water and energy” (-0.62 percentage point).
The main group with the largest contribution[ii] to inflation is “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” with 0.61 percentage point. The lowest contribution to inflation was registered by the main group “Housing, water and energy”, with -0.35 percentage point.
| 2013 = 100 | May | June | July | August |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer price index | 109.45 | 109.52 | 109.76 | 109.83 |
| Inflation | 0.48% | 0.60% | 0.73% | 0.82% |
| Health index | 110.10 | 110.05 | 110.16 | 110.20 |
| Smoothed health index* | 107.84 | 107.88 | 107.93 | 107.92 |
| * defined in the law of 23 April 2015 on the promotion of employment (Belgian Official Journal of 27 April 2015) | ||||
The first inflation estimate according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP flash estimate) for Belgium amounts to 0.5% in September
[i]An effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall CPI).
[ii]The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.