Consumer price index of May 2021
- Inflation increases from 1.23% to 1.46% in May.
- The consumer price index this month increases by 0.17 points or 0.15%.
- Inflation based on the health index has increased to 0.81% from 0.64%.
- The smoothed health index amounts to 108.50 points in May.
- This increase in inflation is mainly due to the inflation for energy; energy prices were quite low in May last year due to the coronavirus crisis.
- Inflation for food products and non-alcoholic beverages remains negative and currently stands at -1.59%.
- The most significant price increases in May were registered for the purchase of vehicles, motor fuels, private rents, restaurants and cafés, alcoholic beverages, bundled telecommunication services and car insurances. However, vegetables, meat and bread and cereals have had a decreasing effect on the index.
- The current measures due to the COVID-19 had an impact on the calculation of the index. More information is available here. In practice, this means that for the month of May there is a decreasing effect on the index for airplane tickets, holiday villages and camping sites and hotel rooms due to the carry forward of prices with last year’s seasonal correction factor.
The consumer price index amounts to 111.05 points in May 2021. It has increased by 0.17 points over the month. Inflation has gone up to 1.46% from 1.23%. The health index gained 0.06 points and is now at 110.99 points. Inflation based on the health index has increased to 0.81% from 0.64%. The most significant price increases were registered for the purchase of vehicles, motor fuels, private rents, restaurants and cafés, alcoholic beverages, bundled telecommunication services and car insurances. However, vegetables, meat and bread and cereals have had a decreasing effect on the index.
The consumer price index has risen by 0.17 points or 0.15% in May 2021 and is now running at 111.05 points, compared to 110.88 points in April 2021 (2013=100). The health index has gone up by 0.06 points to 110.99 points in May, compared to 110.93 points in April. The smoothed health index amounts to 108.50 points in May. The next central index for public service and social benefits is set at 109.34 points.
Products with the largest increasing effect in May are the purchase of vehicles, motor fuels, private rents, restaurants and cafés, alcoholic beverages, bundled telecommunication services and car insurances. However, airplane tickets, vegetables, meat, holiday villages and camping sites and bread and cereals have had a decreasing effect on the index. The most important trends this month are:
| Upward: | Effect: | Downward: | Effect: |
|---|---|---|---|
| Purchase of vehicles | +0.070 points | Airplane tickets (*) | -0.060 points |
| Motor fuels | +0.060 points | Vegetables | -0.060 points |
| Private rent | +0.050 points | Meat | -0.050 points |
| Restaurants and cafés | +0.045 points | Holiday villages and camping sites (*) | -0.045 points |
| Alcoholic beverages | +0.045 points | Hotel rooms (*) | -0.035 points |
| Bundled telecommunication services | +0.040 points | Bread and cereals | -0.035 points |
| Car insurances | +0.035 points |
(*) consequence of the carry forward of prices with a seasonal correction factor
Prices for the purchase of vehicles have increased by 0.9% on average. Motor fuels became on average 1.6% more expensive. Private rents have increased on average by 0.6%. Prices in restaurants and cafés went up by 0.7% on average. Alcoholic beverages were on average 2.3% more expensive than last month. Prices for bundled telecommunication services have increased on average by 1.4%. Car insurances have become on average 3.3% more expensive.
Prices for vegetables decreased on average by 2.7%. Meat is on average 1.1% less expensive than last month. Prices for meat and cereals decreased on average by 1.1% this month.
Note about inflation for commonly purchased products
The table below shows the inflation of a number of commonly purchased product groups. For almost all commonly purchased products, inflation has been sharply decreasing since the last quarter of last year. This decrease in inflation is due to the fact that the effect of the price decreases in the second semester 2019 has faded away. See the analysis on ‘Measuring inflation during the coronavirus crisis’ for a discussion on this effect. Since February, the inflation for most product groups has been negative, which means that prices are lower than a year ago. This month, inflation is even negative for all product groups. Food product prices are currently on average 1.55% lower than in May 2020. Non-alcoholic beverages are 1.94% less expensive and other non-durable small household articles are even 4.17% cheaper.
| COICOP | Name | Weight in the basket (on 1000) | Feb/2021 | Mar/2021 | Apr/2021 | May/2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 178.87 | -0.21% | -0.58% | -1.19% | -1.58% |
| 01.1 | Food products | 161.64 | -0.24% | -0.54% | -0.91% | -1.55% |
| 01.2 | Non-alcoholic beverages | 17.23 | 0.09% | -0.91% | -3.89% | -1.94% |
| 05.6.1 | Non-durable household goods | 8.92 | -2.99% | 0.99% | -4.77% | -2.17% |
| 05.6.1.1 | Cleaning and maintenance products | 5.71 | -4.07% | 2.13% | -5.76% | -1.09% |
| 05.6.1.2 | Other non-durable small household articles | 3.21 | -0.95% | -1.04% | -2.92% | -4.17% |
| 09.3.4 | Pets and related products | 7.46 | -0.06% | 0.13% | -0.52% | -1.38% |
| 12.1.3 | Other appliances, articles and products for personal care | 14.56 | -1.25% | -1.37% | -2.36% | -1.94% |
| 12.1.3.1 | Non-electrical appliances for personal care | 0.76 | 1.05% | 0.82% | -2.80% | -1.56% |
| 12.1.3.2 | Articles for personal hygiene and wellness, esoteric products and beauty products | 13.80 | -1.39% | -1.49% | -2.34% | -1.96% |
Note about overall inflation
Inflation now amounts to 1.46% compared to 1.23% in April and 0.89% in March. Inflation based on the health index amounted to 0.81% this month compared to 0.64% in April and 0.55% in March. Inflation without energy has increased to 0.67% in May compared to 0.60% last month and 0.76% in March. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, amounts to 1.00% in May, compared to 0.82% in April and 0.96% in March.
Food product inflation (including alcoholic beverages) amounts to -1.40% this month, i.e. the lowest level since December 1992. Energy inflation is now running at 10.21%, against 8.15% last month and 2.27% in March. Electricity is now 8.4% more expensive than a year ago. Natural gas is 16.1% more expensive on an annual basis. Prices for domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, have declined by -22.1% over a year. Motor fuels are 22.0% more expensive than last year. Inflation for services has risen to 1.40% from 1.32%. Inflation for rents amounted to 1.42% in April and has increased to 2.02% in May.
Some products and services that rose sharply in price compared to May last year are:
| Upward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Other fuels (LPG) | 44.1% |
| Petrol | 22.6% |
| Diesel | 21.5% |
| Postal mail | 18.1% |
| Fresh seafood | 16.2% |
| Natural gas | 16.1% |
| Liquefied petroleum gas (propane) | 13.4% |
| Banking services | 12.0% |
Some products and services that fell sharply in price compared to May last year are:
| Downward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Domestic heating oil | -22.1% |
| Software | -13.6% |
| Holiday villages, camping sites and youth hostels | -11.4% |
| Other information processing equipment (e.g. smart watch) | -9.4% |
| Potatoes | -8.0% |
| Pasta | -7.7% |
| Fresh fruit | -7.2% |
| Television set | -7.2% |
The main group with the largest upward effect[i] on inflation in May was "Transport" with an effect of 0.81 percentage points. The largest downward effect was measured for “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” with -0.68 percentage points.
The main group with the largest contribution[ii] to inflation is "Transport" with 0.91 percentage points. The lowest contribution to inflation was registered by "Food and non-alcoholic beverages", with -0.29 percentage points.
| 2013 = 100 | February | March | April | May |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer price index | 110.21 | 110.51 | 110.88 | 111.05 |
| Inflation | 0.46% | 0.89% | 1.23% | 1.46% |
| Health index | 110.39 | 110.56 | 110.93 | 110.99 |
| Smoothed health index* | 107.93 | 108.09 | 108.35 | 108.50 |
| * defined in the law of 23 April 2015 on the promotion of employment (Belgian Official Journal of 27 April 2015) | ||||
The first inflation estimate according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP flash estimate) for Belgium amounts to 2.5% for May 2021.
[i] The effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall HICP).
[ii] The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.