Consumer price index of April 2021
- Inflation increases from 0.89% to 1.23% in April.
- The consumer price index this month increases by 0.37 points or 0.33%.
- Inflation based on the health index has increased to 0.64% from 0.55%.
- The smoothed health index stands at 108.35 points in April.
- This increase in inflation is mainly due to energy inflation, energy prices being quite low in April last year due to the corona crisis.
- Inflation for food products and non-alcoholic beverages remains negative and currently stands at -1.19%.
- The most significant price increases in April were registered for vegetables, meat, fruit and the purchase of vehicles. However, non-alcoholic beverages have had a decreasing effect on the index.
- The current measures due to the COVID-19 had an impact on the calculation of the index. More information is available here. In practice, this means that for the month of April there is an increasing effect on the index for airplane tickets and hotel rooms due to the carry forward of prices with last year’s seasonal correction factor. For travels abroad and city trips, there is a decreasing effect on the index for the same reason.
The consumer price index stands at 110.88 points in April 2021. It has increased by 0.37 points over the month. Inflation has gone up to 1.23% from 0.89%. The health index gained 0.37 points and is now at 110.93 points. Inflation based on the health index has increased to 0.64% from 0.55%. The most significant price increases were registered for vegetables, meat, fruit and the purchase of vehicles. However, non-alcoholic beverages have had a decreasing effect on the index.
The consumer price index has risen by 0.37 points or 0.33% in April 2021 and is now running at 110.88 points, compared to 110.51 points in March 2021 (2013=100). The health index has gained 0.37 points to 110.93 points in April, compared to 110.56 points in March. The smoothed health index stands at 108.35 points in April. The next central index for public service and social benefits is set at 109.34 points.
Products with the largest increasing effect in April are vegetables, airplane tickets, meat, fruit, hotel rooms and the purchase of vehicles. However, travels abroad and city trips as well as non-alcoholic beverages have had a decreasing effect on the index. The most important trends this month are:
| Upward: | Effect: | Downward: | Effect: |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vegetables, incl. potatoes | +0.100 points | Travels abroad and city trips (*) | -0.055 points |
| Airplane tickets (*) | +0.080 points | Non-alcoholic beverages | -0.045 points |
| Meat | +0.075 points | ||
| Fruit | +0.075 points | ||
| Hotel rooms (*) | +0.065 points | ||
| Purchase of vehicles | +0.035 points |
(*) consequence of the carry forward of prices with a seasonal correction factor
Vegetables have become on average 4.6% more expensive. Prices for meat have increased on average by 1.8%. Fruit is on average 4.2% more expensive than last month. Prices for the purchase of vehicles have increased by 0.5 % on average.
Prices of non-alcoholic beverages have gone down on average by 2.5% this month.
Note about inflation for commonly purchased products
The table below shows the inflation of a number of commonly purchased product groups. For almost all commonly purchased products, inflation has been sharply decreasing since the last quarter of last year. This decrease in inflation is due to the fact that the effect of the price decreases in the second semester 2019 has faded away. See the analysis on ‘Measuring inflation during the coronavirus crisis’ for a discussion on this effect. Since February, the inflation for most product groups has even been negative, which means that prices are lower than a year ago. This month, inflation is even negative for all product groups, partly due to the temporary ban on discounts that was in force last year in April. Food product prices are currently on average 0.91% lower than in April 2020. Non-alcoholic beverages are 3.89% less expensive and cleaning and maintenance products are even 5.76% cheaper.
| COICOP | Name | Weight in the basket (on 1000) | Jan/2021 | Feb/2021 | Mar/2021 | Apr/2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 178.87 | 1.24% | -0.21% | -0.58% | -1.19% |
| 01.1 | Food products | 161.64 | 1.02% | -0.24% | -0.54% | -0.91% |
| 01.2 | Non-alcoholic beverages | 17.23 | 3.29% | 0.09% | -0.91% | -3.89% |
| 05.6.1 | Non-durable household goods | 8.92 | 0.76% | -2.99% | 0.99% | -4.77% |
| 05.6.1.1 | Cleaning and maintenance products | 5.71 | 1.03% | -4.07% | 2.13% | -5.76% |
| 05.6.1.2 | Other non-durable small household articles | 3.21 | 0.27% | -0.95% | -1.04% | -2.92% |
| 09.3.4 | Pets and related products | 7.46 | 0.91% | -0.06% | 0.13% | -0.52% |
| 12.1.3 | Other appliances, articles and products for personal care | 14.56 | 1.27% | -1.25% | -1.37% | -2.36% |
| 12.1.3.1 | Non-electrical appliances for personal care | 0.76 | 2.12% | 1.05% | 0.82% | -2.80% |
| 12.1.3.2 | Articles for personal hygiene and wellness, esoteric products and beauty products | 13.80 | 1.22% | -1.39% | -1.49% | -2.34% |
Note about overall inflation
Inflation now stands at 1.23% compared to 0.89% in March and 0.46% in February. Inflation based on the health index amounted to 0.64% this month compared to 0.55% in March and 0.47% in February. Inflation without energy has decreased to 0.60% in April from 0.76% in March and 0.87% in February. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, was running at 0.82% in April, compared to 0.96% in March and 1.01% in February.
Energy inflation is now running at 8.15%, compared to 2.27% last month and -3.60% in February. Electricity is now 7.9% more expensive than a year ago. Natural gas is 12.3% more expensive on an annual basis. Prices for domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, have declined by -26.9% over a year. Motor fuels are 20.4% more expensive than last year. Inflation for services has risen to 1.32% from 1.16%. Inflation for rents amounted to 1.81% in March and has decreased to 1.42% in April.
Some products and services that rose sharply in price compared to April last year are:
| Upward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Other fuels (LPG) | 52.8% |
| Petrol | 25.1% |
| Postal mail | 18.1% |
| Liquefied petroleum gas (propane) | 16.1% |
| Diesel | 16.0% |
| Fresh seafood | 14.0% |
| Natural gas | 12.3% |
Some products and services that fell sharply in price compared to April last year are:
| Downward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Domestic heating oil | -26.9% |
| Software | -12.3% |
| Holiday villages, camping sites and youth hostels | -11.5% |
| Other information processing equipment (e.g. smart watch) | -8.1% |
| Mineral water | -7.7% |
| Pre-recorded recording media (bluray, dvd) | -7.4% |
| Video equipment | -6.1% |
The main group with the largest upward effect[i] on inflation in April was "Transport" with an effect of 0.74 percentage points. The largest downward effect was measured for “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” with -0.54 percentage points.
The main group with the largest contribution[ii] to inflation is "Transport" with 0.81 percentage points. The lowest contribution to inflation was registered by "Food and non-alcoholic beverages", with -0.22 percentage points.
| 2013 = 100 | January | February | March | April |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer price index | 109.97 | 110.21 | 110.51 | 110.88 |
| Inflation | 0.26% | 0.46% | 0.89% | 1.23% |
| Health index | 110.35 | 110.39 | 110.56 | 110.93 |
| Smoothed health index* | 107.86 | 107.93 | 108.09 | 108.35 |
| * defined in the law of 23 April 2015 on the promotion of employment (Belgian Official Journal of 27 April 2015) | ||||
The first inflation estimate according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP flash estimate) for Belgium amounts to 2.0% for April 2021.
[i] The effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall HICP).
[ii] The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.