Consumer price index of June 2021
- Inflation increases from 1.46% to 1.63% in June.
- The consumer price index this month increases by 0.25 points or 0.23%.
- Inflation based on the health index has increased to 1.14% from 0.81%.
- The smoothed health index amounts to 108.73 points in June.
- This increase in inflation is mainly due to the inflation for accommodation and food service activities and energy. For energy, this is largely due to the low prices last year caused by the coronavirus crisis.
- Inflation for food products and non-alcoholic beverages remains negative and currently stands at -1.23%.
- The most significant price increases in June were registered for natural gas, electricity, restaurants and cafés, motor fuels, bread and cereals and non-alcoholic beverages. However, alcoholic beverages, fish and seafood, flowers and plants and vegetables have had a decreasing effect on the index.
- The impact of the COVID-19 on the calculation of the index is currently limited. More information is available here.
The consumer price index was running at 111.30 points in June 2021. It has increased by 0.25 points over the month. Inflation has gone up to 1.63% from 1.46%. The health index gained 0.32 points and is now at 111.31 points. Inflation based on the health index has increased to 1.14% from 0.81%. The most significant price increases were registered for natural gas, electricity, restaurants and cafés, motor fuels, bread and cereals and non-alcoholic beverages. However, alcoholic beverages, fish and seafood, flowers and plants and vegetables have had a decreasing effect on the index.
The consumer price index has increased by 0.25 points or 0.23% in June 2021 and now stands at 111.30 points, against 111.05 points in May 2021 (2013=100). The health index has gone up by 0.32 points to 111.31 points in June, compared to 110.99 points in May. The smoothed health index was running at 108.73 points in June. The next central index for public service and social benefits is set at 109.34 points.
The products with the largest increasing effect in June are the purchase of natural gas, electricity, restaurants and cafés, motor fuels, holiday villages and camping sites, travels abroad and city trips, bread and cereals and non-alcoholic beverages. However, alcoholic beverages, airplane tickets, fish and seafood, flowers and plants and vegetables have had a decreasing effect on the index. The most important trends this month are:
| Upward: | Effect: | Downward: | Effect: |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas | +0.115 points | Alcoholic beverages | -0.115 points |
| Electricity | +0.070 points | Airplane tickets (*) | -0.040 points |
| Restaurants and cafés | +0.065 points | Fish and seafood | -0.035 points |
| Motor fuels | +0.060 points | Flowers and plants | -0.025 points |
| Holiday villages & camping sites (*) | +0.055 points | Vegetables | -0.025 points |
| Travels abroad and city trips (*) | +0.030 points | ||
| Bread and cereals | +0.025 points | ||
| Non-alcoholic beverages | +0.025 points |
(*) consequence of the carry forward of prices with a seasonal correction factor
Natural gas and electricity were this month on average 7.5% and 2.1% more expensive, respectively. Prices in restaurants and cafés went up by 0.9% on average. Motor fuels became on average 1.5% more expensive than last month. Prices for bread and cereals rose by 0.8% on average. Non-alcoholic beverages were on average 1.3% more expensive.
Prices for alcoholic beverages decreased on average by 5.7% this month. Fish and seafood have become 2.6% cheaper than last month. Flowers and plants have become on average 4.8% cheaper this month. Vegetables have become on average 1.2% cheaper.
Note about inflation for commonly purchased products
The table below shows the inflation of a number of commonly purchased product groups. For almost all commonly purchased products, inflation has been sharply decreasing since the last quarter of last year. This decrease in inflation is due to the fact that the effect of the price decreases in the second semester 2019 has faded away. See the analysis on ‘Measuring inflation during the coronavirus crisis’ for a discussion on this effect. Since February, the inflation for most product groups has been negative, which means that prices are lower than a year ago. Food product prices are currently on average 1.22% lower than in June 2020. Non-alcoholic beverages are 1.39% less expensive and other non-durable small household articles are even 3.32% cheaper.
| COICOP | Name | Weight in the basket (on 1000) | Mar/2021 | Apr/2021 | May/2021 | Jun/2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 178.87 | -0.58% | -1.19% | -1.58% | -1.23% |
| 01.1 | Food products | 161.64 | -0.54% | -0.91% | -1.55% | -1.22% |
| 01.2 | Non-alcoholic beverages | 17.23 | -0.91% | -3.89% | -1.94% | -1.39% |
| 05.6.1 | Non-durable household goods | 8.92 | 0.99% | -4.77% | -2.17% | -1.07% |
| 05.6.1.1 | Cleaning and maintenance products | 5.71 | 2.13% | -5.76% | -1.09% | 0.14% |
| 05.6.1.2 | Other non-durable small household articles | 3.21 | -1.04% | -2.92% | -4.17% | -3.32% |
| 09.3.4 | Pets and related products | 7.46 | 0.13% | -0.52% | -1.38% | 0.26% |
| 12.1.3 | Other appliances, articles and products for personal care | 14.56 | -1.37% | -2.36% | -1.94% | -2.05% |
| 12.1.3.1 | Non-electrical appliances for personal care | 0.76 | 0.82% | -2.80% | -1.56% | -0.97% |
| 12.1.3.2 | Articles for personal hygiene and wellness, esoteric products and beauty products | 13.80 | -1.49% | -2.34% | -1.96% | -2.11% |
Note about overall inflation
Inflation now stands at 1.63%, against 1.46% in May and 1.23% in April. Inflation based on the health index amounted to 1.14% this month compared to 0.81% in May and 0.64% in April. Inflation without energy has increased to 0.91% in June compared to 0.67% last month and 0.60% in April. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, was running at 1.10% in June, compared to 1.00% in May and 0.82% in April.
Inflation for food products (including alcoholic beverages) stands at -1.21% this month, compared to -1.40% last month. Energy inflation now stands at 10.80%, compared to 10.21% last month and 8.15% in April. Electricity is now 10.4% more expensive than a year ago. Natural gas is 25.2% more expensive on an annual basis. Prices for domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, have declined by 19.0% over a year. Motor fuels are 16.1% more expensive than last year. Inflation for services has risen to 1.51% from 1.40%. Inflation for rents amounted to 2.02% in May and has very slightly decreased to 2.01% in June.
Some products and services that rose sharply in price compared to June last year are:
| Upward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Other fuels (LPG) | 27.9% |
| Natural gas | 25.2% |
| Postal mail | 18.1% |
| Diesel | 16.6% |
| Petrol | 15.7% |
| Liquefied petroleum gas (propane) | 12.0% |
| Banking services | 11.9% |
Some products and services that fell sharply in price compared to June last year are:
| Domestic heating oil (smoothed 12 month moving average) | -19.0% |
|---|---|
| Holiday villages, camping sites and youth hostels | -19.0% |
| Software | -11.7% |
| Potatoes | -11.5% |
| Television set | -9.9% |
| Fresh fruit | -9.6% |
| Other information processing equipment (e.g. smart watch) | -7.7% |
| Fresh vegetables | -7.6% |
The main group with the largest upward effect[i] on inflation in June was "Transport" with an effect of 0.61 percentage points. The largest downward effect was measured for “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” with -0.63 percentage points.
The main group with the largest contribution[ii] to inflation is "Transport" with 0.77 percentage points. The lowest contribution to inflation was registered by "Food and non-alcoholic beverages", with -0.22 percentage points.
| 2013 = 100 | March | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer price index | 110.51 | 110.88 | 111.05 | 111.30 |
| Inflation | 0.89% | 1.23% | 1.46% | 1.63% |
| Health index | 110.56 | 110.93 | 110.99 | 111.31 |
| Smoothed health index* | 108.09 | 108.35 | 108.50 | 108.73 |
| * defined in the law of 23 April 2015 on the promotion of employment (Belgian Official Journal of 27 April 2015) | ||||
The first inflation estimate according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP flash estimate) for Belgium amounts to 2.6% for June 2021
[i] The effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall HICP).
[ii] The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.