Consumer price index for March 2020
- Inflation decreases from 1.10 % to 0.62 % in March.
- The consumer price index decreases by 0.18 point or 0.16 % this month.
- Inflation based on the health index falls from 1.00 % to 0.84 %.
- The smoothed health index amounted to 107.49 points in March.
- The most significant price increases in March were registered for fruit, travels abroad, rents as well as sugar, jam and chocolate. However, motor fuels, hotel rooms, natural gas, flowers and plants, fish and seafood, bundled telecommunication services, wireless telephone services, cleaning and maintenance products and electricity have had a decreasing effect on the index.
The consumer price index is running at 109.53 points in March 2020. It has decreased by 0.18 point over the month. Inflation has decreased from 1.10 % to 0.62 %. The health index has gained 0.09 point to 109.96 points. Inflation based on the health index has decreased from 1.00 % to 0.84 %. The most significant price increases were registered for fruit, travels abroad, rents as well as sugar, jam and chocolate. However, motor fuels, hotel rooms, natural gas, flowers and plants, fish and seafood, bundled telecommunication services, wireless telephone services, cleaning and maintenance products and electricity have had a decreasing effect on the index.
The impact of the coronavirus Covid-19 on the compilation of the March Consumer Price Index was limited, the local data collection was largely completed before the measures came into force. Moreover, most of the index basket has been collected centrally for some time. For example, transaction data ("scanner data") from the main supermarket chains have been processed since 2015. The impact of Covid-19 on the April index compilation process will be communicated in the month of April.
The consumer price index fell by 0.18 point or 0.16 % in March 2020 and now stands at 109.53 points, compared to 109.71 points in February 2020 (2013=100).
The health index has increased by 0.09 point to 109.96 points in March, compared to 109.87 points in February. The smoothed health index amounted to 107.49 points in March. The central index for public service and social benefits, set at 109.34 points, has not been reached. The last time the central index was exceeded was last month. This means that social security benefits and pensions rose by 2 % in March. Wages in the public sector will rise by 2 % in April.
The largest upward pressure in March came from fruit, travels abroad, rents as well as sugar, jam and chocolate.
However, motor fuels, hotel rooms, natural gas, flowers and plants, fish and seafood, bundled telecommunication services, wireless telephone services, cleaning and maintenance products and electricity provided the largest downward pressure compared to last month. The most important trends this month are:
| Upward: | Effect: | Downward: | Effect: |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fruit | +0.130 point | Motor fuels | -0.245 point |
| Travels abroad | +0.060 point | Hotel rooms | -0.050 point |
| Rents | +0.035 point | Natural gas | -0.040 point |
| Sugar, jam and chocolate | +0.035 point | Flowers and plants | -0.035 point |
| Fish and seafood | -0.035 point | ||
| Telecommunication services | -0.035 point | ||
| Wireless telephone services | -0.035 point | ||
| Cleaning and maintenance products | -0.030 point | ||
| Electricity | -0.025 point |
In March, prices for fruit increased by 8.0 % on average compared to the previous month, mainly due to seasonal effects. Travels abroad registered an average index increase of 3.4 %, due to seasonal adjustments. For rents, the price increase amounted to 0.5 %. Prices for sugar, jam and chocolate increased by 3.1 % on average compared to February.
Prices of motor fuels have decreased on average by 6.6 % compared to the previous month. Prices for hotel rooms, natural gas, flowers and plants as well as fish and seafood have decreased by respectively 6.9 %, 2.4 %, 6.7 % and 2.8 % compared to the previous month. Bundled telecommunication services and wireless telephone services have decreased by 1.1 % and 5.6 % this month. Prices of cleaning and maintenance products have fallen by 4.8 % on average. Prices of electricity have dropped by 0.8 %.
Inflation now stands at 0.62 % compared to 1.10 % in February and 1.41 % in January. Inflation based on the health index amounted to 0.84 % this month compared to 1.00 % in the previous month and 1.12 % in January. Inflation without energy decreased to 1.73 % in March, compared to 1.79 % in February and January. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stands at 1.55 % in March, compared to 1.71 % in February and 1.86 % in January.
Food inflation now stands at 2.46 % compared to 1.87 % last month and 1.03 % in January. Fresh fruit were 4.6 % more expensive than in March 2019. Prices of fresh vegetables have increased by 2.3 % in a year. Fish and seafood have become 2.0 % more expensive compared to March 2019. Prices for meat have increased by 3.4 % compared to last March. Prices for non-alcoholic beverages are on average 1.9 % higher than in March last year. Alcoholic beverages are now 3.8 % more expensive than a year ago. Tobacco prices have gone up by 3 % compared to March 2019.
Energy inflation is now running at -3.37 %, compared to -2.04 % last month and -1.17 % in January. Electricity is now 8.3 % less expensive than a year ago. Natural gas is 17.4 % less expensive on an annual basis. Prices for domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, have decreased by 4.7 % in a year. Motor fuels are now 7.9 % less expensive than a year ago. Inflation for services has decreased to 1.54 % from 2.11 %. Finally, inflation for rents increased to 2.52 % in March from 2.10 % in February.
The following products and services have registered the sharpest price increases compared to last year in March:
| Upward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Wine from other fruits (cider) | 18.5% |
| Postal mail | 13.8% |
| Pork | 10.0% |
| Jewellery | 8.3% |
| Concentrated milk | 7.5% |
| Educational text books | 7.5% |
| Frozen fish | 7.5% |
| Newspapers | 7.1% |
| Domestic services | 6.5% |
| Fruit and vegetable juices | 5.5% |
| Travel insurance | 5.1% |
The following products and services have registered the sharpest price decreases compared to last year in March:
| Downward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Natural gas | -17.4% |
| Wireless telephone services | -12.0% |
| Other fuels for personal transport equipment (LPG) | -11.7% |
| Holiday centres, camping sites, youth hostels and similar accommodation services | -11.5% |
| Diesel | -9.7% |
| Electricity | -8.3% |
| Fresh shellfish | -6.4% |
| Wired telephone services | -6.2% |
| Petrol | -5.6% |
| Video equipment | -5.1% |
| Liquid fuels | -4.7% |
The main group with the largest upward effect[i] inflation in March was “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” with an effect of 0.38 percentage point. The largest downward effect was measured for “Housing, water and energy” (-0.62 percentage point).
The main group with the largest contribution[ii] to inflation is “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” with 0.42 percentage point. The lowest contribution to inflation was registered by the main group “Housing, water and energy”, with -0.40 percentage point.
| 2013 = 100 | December | January | February | March |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer price index | 109.04 | 109.69 | 109.71 | 109.53 |
| Inflation | 0.76% | 1.41% | 1.10% | 0.62% |
| Health index | 109.18 | 109.72 | 109.87 | 109.96 |
| Smoothed health index* | 106.76 | 107.04 | 107.25 | 107.49 |
| * defined in the law of 23 April 2015 on the promotion of employment (Belgian Official Journal of 27 April 2015) | ||||
The first inflation estimate according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP flash estimate) for Belgium amounts to 1.0 % in March. The difference between the HICP and the national consumer price index (CPI) is mainly due to conceptual differences in terms of weight source, reference population, spending concept, seasonal adjustment and moving average (smoothing).
[i]An effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall CPI).
[ii]The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.