Consumer price index of July 2019
- Inflation decreases from 1.73 % to 1.42 % in July.
- The consumer price index this month increases by 0.09 point or 0.08 %.
- Inflation based on the health index has declined from 1.88 % to 1.52 %.
- The smoothed health index now stands at 106.81 points.
- Inflation for energy products is negative for the first time since September 2016.
- The inflation estimate according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP flash estimate[i]) for Belgium amounts to 1.3 % in July.
- The most significant price increases in July were registered for airplane tickets, hotel rooms, personal care products and alcoholic beverages. However, natural gas, holiday villages, electricity and vegetables have had a decreasing effect on the index.
The consumer price index is running at 108.96 points in July 2019. It has increased by 0.09 point over the month. Inflation has dropped from 1.73 % to 1.42 %. The health index has gained 0.05 point to 109.07 points. Inflation based on the health index has fallen to 1.52 % from 1.88 %. The most significant price increases in July were registered for airplane tickets, hotel rooms, personal care products and alcoholic beverages. These increases were mainly offset by price decreases for natural gas, holiday villages, electricity and vegetables.
The consumer price index has risen by 0.09 point or 0.08 % in July 2019 and is now running at 108.96 points, against 108.87 points in June 2019 (2013=100).
The health index has gained 0.05 point to 109.07 points in July, compared to 109.02 points in June. The smoothed health index now stands at 106.81 points. The central index for public service and social benefits, set at 107.20 points, has therefore not been reached. The last time the central index was exceeded was in August 2018.
The products with the largest upward effect in July were airplane tickets, hotel rooms, personal care products and alcoholic beverages. However, natural gas, holiday villages, electricity and vegetables have had the largest decreasing effect on the index compared to last month. The most important trends this month are:
| Upward: | Effect: | Downward: | Effect: |
|---|---|---|---|
| Airplane tickets | +0.140 point | Natural gas | -0.080 point |
| Hotel rooms | +0.050 point | Holiday villages | -0.060 point |
| Personal care | +0.030 point | Electricity | -0.040 point |
| Alcoholic beverages | +0.025 point | Vegetables | -0.025 point |
Airplane tickets have become 22.8 % more expensive compared to last month. Prices of hotel rooms have increased on average by 6.2 %. Personal care products have become on average 2.0 % more expensive. Prices of alcoholic beverages have gone up on average by 1.4 %.
Natural gas has become on average 4.6 % less expensive compared to last month. Prices of holiday villages have decreased on average by 6.9 %. Electricity has become on average 1.0 % less expensive. Vegetables have become on average 1.4 % cheaper.
Inflation is now running at 1.42 %, compared to 1.73 % in June and 1.89 % in May. Inflation based on the health index amounted to 1.52 % this month compared to 1.88 % in June and 1.78 % in May. Inflation without energy has decreased to 1.62 % in July compared to 1.67 % in June and 1.47 % in May. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stands at 1.61 % in July, compared to 1.71 % in June and 1.49 % in May.
Food inflation is now running at 1.04 %, up from 0.64 % in June and 0.75 % in May. Fresh fruit now costs 3.1 % more than in July 2018. Fresh vegetable prices are on the rise: 4.2 % on an annual basis. Fish and shellfish are 1.6 % less expensive than a year ago.Prices for non-alcoholic beverages and alcoholic beverages have increased by 0.3 % and 0.7 % respectively compared to July last year. Tobacco prices have gone up by 5.3 % compared to July last year.Energy inflation is now running at -0.32 %, compared to 2.23 % in June and 5.50 % in May. It is therefore negative for the first time since September 2016. Electricity is now 1.0 % more expensive than a year ago. Natural gas now costs 9.9 % less than in July 2018. Prices for domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, have increased by 12.5 % in one year. Motor fuels are 2.2 % less expensive than last year. Inflation for services has gone down to 2.30 % from 2.73 %. Inflation for rents has slightly decreased and now stands at 1.00 %, compared to 1.02% in June.
The following products and services have registered the sharpest price increases compared to last year in July:
| Upward: | Inflation: |
|---|---|
| Newspapers | 16.0% |
| Domestic heating oil | 12.5% |
| Postal mail | 12.5% |
| Holiday centres, camping sites and youth hostels | 11.1% |
| Other tobacco products (e.g. loose tobacco) | 10.0% |
| Magazines and periodicals | 6.7% |
| Food processing appliances (kitchen robot) | 6.5% |
| Potatoes | 6.3% |
| Hotels and similar services | 6.3% |
| Other meats (a.o. rabbit, horse meat) | 6.3% |
| Contribution to national health services | 6.1% |
| Travel insurance | 5.9% |
The following products and services have registered the sharpest price decreases compared to last year in July:
| Downward: | Inflation: |
|---|---|
| Fresh shellfish | -15.3% |
| Other fuels (LPG) | -10.2% |
| Natural gas | -9.9% |
| Eggs | -6.6% |
| Smoked fish and shellfish | -6.6% |
| Alcoholic soft drinks | -5.1% |
| Pre-recorded recording media (bluray, dvd) | -5.0% |
| Dried fruit and nuts | -4.0% |
| Other information processing equipment (e.g. smart watch) | -3.6% |
| Cookers, hobs and ovens | -3.4% |
| Frozen shellfish | -3.2% |
| Other recording media (memory card) | -3.2% |
The main group with the largest upward effect[ii] on inflation in July was "Hotels, cafés and restaurants" with an effect of 0.15 percentage point. The largest downward effect was measured for "Housing, water and energy" (-0.10 percentage point).
The main group with the largest contribution[iii] to inflation is “Hotels, cafés and restaurants” with 0.24 percentage point. The lowest contribution to inflation was registered by the main group "communication", with 0.00 percentage point.
| 2013 = 100 | April | May | June | July |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer price index | 108.91 | 108.93 | 108.87 | 108.96 |
| Inflation | 2.08% | 1.89% | 1.73% | 1.42% |
| Health index | 108.98 | 108.89 | 109.02 | 109.07 |
| Smoothed health index* | 106.65 | 106.74 | 106.80 | 106.81 |
| * defined in the law of 23 April 2015 on the promotion of employment (Belgian Official Journal of 27 April 2015) | ||||
[i]The flash estimate of the Belgian HICP is an estimate of the inflation according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices. It is calculated by Statbel based on incomplete data for the reference period and is published by Eurostat at the end of the month. A couple of weeks later, Statbel calculates, based on exhaustive data, the final HICP that will be published by Eurostat and Statbel.
[ii] An effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall CPI).
[iii] The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.