Consumer price index of November 2020
- Inflation decreases from 0.74 % to 0.51 % in November.
- The consumer price index decreased by 0.18 point or 0.16 % this month.
- Inflation based on the health index has declined from 1.04 % to 0.83 %.
- The smoothed health index amounted to 107.80 points in November.
- The most significant price increases in November were registered for alcoholic beverages and natural gas. However, fruit, domestic heating oil, motor fuels, meat, dairy products and vegetables have had a decreasing effect on the index.
- The current measures due to the COVID-19 had an impact on the calculation of the index. For sectors where physical outlets are closed, data are collected online when there is no other data source. For sectors that are completely closed (cafés, restaurants, travels, etc.) prices are carried forward with or without a seasonal correction factor. These methods are in line with the methodological recommendations established by Eurostat in consultation with the National Statistical Institutes (Statbel in Belgium). The objective is to distort as little as possible the global inflation rate. More information are available here. In practice, this means that for the month of November there is an increasing effect on the index for travels abroad and city trips due to the carry forward of prices with last year’s seasonal correction factor. For airplane tickets and holiday villages, there is a decreasing effect on the index for the same reason.
The consumer price index was running at 109.46 points in November 2020. The index has decreased by 0.18 point over the month. Inflation has dropped from 0.74 % to 0.51 %. The health index loses 0.20 point and is now at 109.91 points. Inflation based on the health index has fallen to 0.83 % from 1.04 %. The most significant price increases were registered for alcoholic beverages and natural gas. However, fruit, domestic heating oil, motor fuels, meat, dairy products and vegetables have had a decreasing effect on the index.
The consumer price index has fallen by 0.18 point or 0.16 % in November 2020 and is now running at 109.46 points, compared to 109.64 points in October 2020 (2013=100). The health index has gone down by 0.20 point to 109.91 points in November, compared to 110.11 points in October. The smoothed health index amounted to 107.80 points in November. The next central index for public service and social benefits is set at 109.34 points.
Products with the largest upward effect in November were travels abroad and city trips, alcoholic beverages and natural gas. However, fruit, domestic heating oil, motor fuels, meat, airplane tickets, dairy products, holiday villages and vegetables have had a decreasing effect on the index. The most important trends this month are:
| Upward: | Effect: | Downward: | Effect: |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travels abroad and city trips (*) | +0,100 point | Fruit | -0,070 point |
| Alcoholic beverages | +0,040 point | Domestic heating oil | -0,050 point |
| Natural gas | +0,030 point | Motor fuels | -0,035 point |
| Meat | -0,035 point | ||
| Airplane tickets (*) | -0.030 point | ||
| Dairy products | -0.030 point | ||
| Holiday villages (*) | -0.030 point | ||
| Vegetables | -0.025 point |
(*) consequence of the carry forward of prices with a seasonal correction factor
Alcoholic beverages were on average 2.1 % more expensive this the month. Prices for natural gas increased on average by 2.0 %. Fruit became on average 4.1 % less expensive compared to last month. Domestic heating oil prices went down by 5.1 %, and motor fuels were on average 1.1 % cheaper. Meat has become on average 0.8 % less expensive this month. Dairy products and vegetables both decreased in price by 1.2 % on average compared to last month.
Note about inflation for commonly purchased products
The table below shows the inflation of a number of commonly purchased products. For almost all commonly purchased products, inflation has slightly decreased these past few months. This month, we observe a sharp decrease in inflation for food products.
| COICOP | Name | Weight in the basket (on 1000) | Aug/2020 | Sep/2020 | Oct/2020 | Nov/2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 175.5 | +3.7% | +3.5% | +3.3% | +2.3% |
| 01.1 | Food products | 158.4 | +3.6% | +3.7% | +3.6% | +2.5% |
| 01.2 | Non-alcoholic beverages | 17.1 | +4.1% | +1.9% | +0.7% | +1.2% |
| 05.6.1 | Non-durable household goods | 9.1 | +2.5% | +2.3% | +1.9% | +0.9% |
| 05.6.1.1 | Cleaning and maintenance products | 5.9 | +2.2% | +2.2% | +1.6% | +1.1% |
| 05.6.1.2 | Other non-durable small household articles | 3.2 | +2.9% | +2.4% | +2.4% | +0.4% |
| 09.3.4 | Pets and related products | 7.4 | +1.1% | +1.9% | +1.3% | +3.7% |
| 12.1.3 | Other appliances, articles and products for personal care | 14.7 | +0.3% | +0.5% | -1.5% | -0.1% |
| 12.1.3.1 | Non-electrical appliances for personal care | 0.8 | +2.3% | -2.4% | +2.0% | +0.4% |
| 12.1.3.2 | Articles for personal hygiene | 13.9 | +0.2% | +0.7% | -1.7% | -0.1% |
Last month, prices of the most common goods were already at the same level as in March (based on price recordings carried out before the coronavirus crisis). Prices decreased further compared to October. So, for example, prices for food products are currently on average 1 % below the level of March. Compared to April, when the ban on discounts was in force, food product prices are 2.5 % lower.
| COICOP | Name | Weight in the basket (on 1000) | Price change Nov. vs. March | Price change Nov. vs. April | Price change Nov. vs. Oct. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 175.5 | -1.0% | -2.5% | -1.0% |
| 01.1 | Food products | 158.4 | -0.9% | -2.5% | -1.0% |
| 01.2 | Non-alcoholic beverages | 17.1 | -2.2% | -2.7% | -0.4% |
| 05.6.1 | Non-durable household goods | 9.1 | -0.1% | -4.9% | -1.1% |
| 05.6.1.1 | Cleaning and maintenance products | 5.9 | +0.5% | -5.6% | -0.7% |
| 05.6.1.2 | Other non-durable small household articles | 3.2 | -1.3% | -3.5% | -1.8% |
| 09.3.4 | Pets and related products | 7.4 | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.1% |
| 12.1.3 | Other appliances, articles and products for personal care | 14.7 | -2.9% | -2.9% | -1.0% |
| 12.1.3.1 | Non-electrical appliances for personal care | 0.8 | -1.4% | +2.9% | +0.1% |
| 12.1.3.2 | Articles for personal hygiene and wellness, esoteric products and beauty products | 13.9 | -3.0% | -3.3% | -1.1% |
One of the main product groups in terms of impact on food product inflation is currently fresh seafood with an inflation of 36 %. This high inflation has an effect of about 0.4 percentage point on the food product inflation. It is mainly due to price increases for shrimps, a result of a shortage of peeled shrimps due to measures against Covid-19 in Morocco. This is a product that is mainly consumed in Belgium, which means that the inflation for this group has barely increased in other European countries.
Note about overall inflation
Inflation is now running at 0.51 %, compared to 0.74 % in October and 0.90 % in September. Inflation based on the health index amounted to 0.83 % this month compared to 1.04 % in October and 1.11 % in September. Inflation without energy decreased to 1.56 % in November, compared to 1.75 % in October and 1.96 % in September. Core inflation, which does not take into account price evolutions of energy products and unprocessed food, stood at 1.34% in November, compared to 1.38% in October and 1.64% in September.
Energy inflation is now running at -9.46 %, compared to -8.73 % in October and -9.18 % in September. Electricity is now 4.5 % less expensive than a year ago. Natural gas is 9.2 % cheaper on an annual basis. Prices for domestic heating oil, calculated based on a smoothed 12-month moving average, have declined by 23.7 % over a year. Motor fuels are 10.1 % less expensive than last year. Inflation for services remains unchanged at 1.30 %. Inflation for rents amounted to 2.95 % in October and has decreased to 2.89 % in November.
Some products and services that rose sharply in price compared to November last year are:
| Upward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Fresh seafood | 36.1% |
| Postal mail | 13.8% |
| Jewellery | 10.2% |
| Fresh vegetables, excluding potatoes | 7.5% |
| Charges by banks and post offices | 7.2% |
| Computers | 6.6% |
| Newspapers | 6.4% |
| Photographic services | 6.1% |
Some products and services that fell sharply in price compared to November last year are:
| Downward: | Inflation |
|---|---|
| Domestic heating oil | -23.7% |
| Diesel | -12.3% |
| Natural gas | -9.2% |
| Petrol | -8.2% |
| Pre-recorded media storage | -8.0% |
| Fruit and vegetable juice | -5.5% |
The main group with the largest upward effect[i] on inflation in November was "food and non-alcoholic beverages" with an effect of 0.39 percentage point. The largest downward effect was measured for “Housing, water and energy” with -0.43 percentage point.
The main group with the [ii] to inflation is "Food and non-alcoholic beverages" with 0.41 percentage point. The lowest contribution to inflation was registered by the main group “Housing, water and energy”, with -0.27 percentage point.
| 2013 = 100 | August | September | October | November |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer price index | 109.83 | 109.42 | 109.64 | 109.46 |
| Inflation | 0.82% | 0.90% | 0.74% | 0.51% |
| Health index | 110.20 | 109.78 | 110.11 | 109.91 |
| Smoothed health index* | 107.92 | 107.85 | 107.86 | 107.80 |
| * defined in the law of 23 April 2015 on the promotion of employment (Belgian Official Journal of 27 April 2015) | ||||
The first inflation estimate according to the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP flash estimate) for Belgium amounts to 0.2% in November.
[i] The effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this product group in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the product group into account, but it also takes into account whether the product group inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall HICP).
[ii] The contribution to inflation of a specific product group shows how much of the change in the total expenditure is due to the price variation of this product group.