- Belgium's inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices was running at 1.8 % in October compared to 2.0 % in September.
- Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) stood at 1.6 % in October, down from 1.7 % in September.
- The sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation were tobacco, motor fuels, accommodation, liquid fuels, electricity and gas.
- Most of the downward pressure on inflation in October came from clothing, vegetables and fruit.
- The harmonised index of consumer prices for the EU member states of October will be published by Eurostat on 16th November.
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Inflation of the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) amounted to 1.8 % in October compared to 2.0 % in September. Inflation based on the harmonised index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT) was running at 1.7 % in October, down from 1.8 % in September. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the HICP-CT is largely due to the changes in excise duties on motor fuels and tobacco. These increases are not taken into account in the HICP-CT.
Inflation and effect on inflation for the 12 main groups
Based on the breakdown into 12 main groups, the highest inflation rate in October was measured for "Hotels, cafés and restaurants" (3.6 %). The lowest inflation rate was measured for "Interior decoration and household appliances" (0.0 %).
The main group with the largest upward effect on inflation in October was "housing, water and energy" with an effect on inflation of 0.3 percentage point. The largest downward effect was measured for "food and non-alcoholic beverages" (-0.2 percentage point).
Inflation and effect on inflation for the overall HICP and 12 main groups
| Product group | Weight (‰) | Inflation on annual basis (%) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HICP | HICP-CT | ||||||||
| aug/2017 | sep/2017 | oct/2017 | oct/2017 | Aug/2017 | sep/2017 | oct/2017 | |||
| 0 | Total expenditure | 1000.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | |||
| 1 | Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 164.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| 2 | Alcoholic beverages and tobacco | 49.7 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 3 | Clothing and footwear | 59.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 4 | Housing, water and energy | 159.3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| 5 | Interior decoration and household appliances | 74.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 6 | Health | 78.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 7 | Transport | 117.6 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 8 | Communication | 33.2 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 9 | Recreation and culture | 93.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| 10 | Education | 6.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 11 | Hotels, cafés and restaurants | 78.2 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| 12 | Various goods and services | 85.3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Inflation according to specific aggregates
The overall HICP can be broken down into five specific aggregates which together form the total expenditure.
- The inflation rate for fuels and energy sources has gone down. It was running at 5.6 % in October compared to 6.4 % in September and 7.1 % in August. Prices increased on average by 1.5 % compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 9.9 %.
- Inflation for processed food products stood at 2.1 % in October, compared to 2.8 % in September. Prices decreased on average by 0.3 % compared to September.
- Inflation for unprocessed food (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish) amounted to -0.3 % in October compared to -0.5 % in September. Prices increased on average by 0.9 % compared to September. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 0.4 %.
- The inflation for non-energy industrial goods was running at 0.6 % in October, down from 0.8 % in the previous month. Prices increased on average by 0.1 % compared to September.
- Inflation for services increased to 2.1 % in October from 1.9 % in September. Prices increased on average by 0.2 % compared to September.
Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) was running at 1.6 % in October, registering a slight decrease compared to the inflation rate of 1.7 % measured in September. Prices of this subaggregate increased on average by 0.1 % compared to the previous month.
Inflation according to specific aggregates
| Specific aggregates | Weight (‰) | Inflation on annual basis (%) | 12-month average (%) | Monthly change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| aug/2017 | sep/2017 | oct/2017 | oct/2017 | oct/2017 | ||
| Total expenditure | 1000.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 0.3 |
| Fuels and energy sources | 90.4 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 9.9 | 1.5 |
| Processed food products | 134.7 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 2.0 | -0.3 |
| Unprocessed food | 79.4 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| Non-energy industrial goods | 272.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| Services | 422.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| HICP without energy and unprocessed food (core inflation) | 830.3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.1 |
Effect of sub-indices on inflation
The largest upward effect on inflation was caused by tobacco and motor fuels, both with an impact of 0.12 percentage point. Accommodation provided an effect of 0.10 percentage point. Domestic heating oil provided an effect of 0.09 percentage point. Electricity provided an effect of 0.08 percentage point. Finally, gas had an effect of 0.07 percentage point.
Sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation
| Sub-index | Weight (‰) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Oct/17 | ||
| 02.2.0 | Tobacco | 28.7 | 0.12 |
| 07.2.2 | Motor fuels | 30.8 | 0.12 |
| 11.2.0 | Accommodation | 8.5 | 0.10 |
| 04.5.3 | Domestic heating oil | 12.5 | 0.09 |
| 04.5.1 | Electricity | 30.6 | 0.08 |
| 04.5.2 | Gas | 15.4 | 0.07 |
The largest downward effect on inflation came from vegetables, fruit and clothing (-0.08 percentage point).
Sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation
| Sub-index | Weight (‰) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Oct/17 | ||
| 01.1.7 | Vegetables | 16,1 | -0,08 |
| 01.1.6 | Fruit | 11,8 | -0,08 |
| 03.1.2 | Clothing | 46,0 | -0,08 |
Comparison with neighbouring countries
Since the HICP of the neighbouring countries will not be published until later, comparisons can only be made for the month of September.
In September, inflation in Belgium was running at 2.0 %, unchanged from August. The Netherlands registered an inflation rate of 1.4 % in September; a slight decrease compared to an inflation rate of 1.5 % in August. Inflation in France in September amounted to 1.1 %, slightly up from 1.0 % in August. Inflation in Germany in September amounted to 1.8 % and remained stable compared to August.
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Inflation based on the HICP-CT in Belgium stood at 1.8 % in September, unchanged from August. Inflation also remained stable in Germany, with a rate of 1.8 % in September. This inflation rate in France went slightly up from 0.8 % in August to 0.9 % in September. Inflation in the Netherlands in September amounted to 1.4 %, slightly down from 1.5 % in August.
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