- Belgium's inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) was running at 0.2 % in June compared to -0.2 % in May. Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) stood at 1.4 % in June.
- The inflation rate based on the consumer price index (CPI) for June stood at 0.6 % compared to 0.5 % in May.
- The sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation were rents, fruit and restaurants and cafés.
- However, the sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation were motor fuels, liquid fuels and gas.
- The current measures due to the COVID-19 had very little impact on the calculation of the index. For sectors that are completely closed or sectors where no representative price is available, prices are carried forward with or without a seasonal correction factor. These methods are in line with the methodological recommendations established by Eurostat in consultation with the National Statistical Institutes (Statbel in Belgium). The goal is to distort the overall inflation as little as possible. More information is available here.
- The harmonised index of consumer prices of June for the EU Member States will be published by Eurostat on 17 July.
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Inflation based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP)[1] stood at 0.2 % in June, compared to -0.2 % in May. Inflation based on the harmonised index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT)[2] was also running at 0.2 % in June, compared to -0.2 % in May.
Inflation and effect on inflation for the 12 main groups
Based on the breakdown into 12 main groups, the highest inflation rate in June was measured for “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” (3.0 %). The lowest inflation rate was measured for “Housing, water and energy” (-4.2 %).
The main group with the largest upward effect on inflation in June was “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” with an effect of 0.5 percentage point. The largest downward effect was measured for “Housing, water and energy” (-0.8 percentage point).
Inflation[3] and effect[4] on inflation for the overall HICP and 12 main groups
| Productgroup | Weight (‰) | Inflation on annual basis (%) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HICP | HICP-CT | ||||||||
| Apr/20 | May-20 | June-20 | June-20 | Apr/20 | May-20 | June-20 | |||
| 0 | Total expenditure | 1000.0 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | |||
| 1 | Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 165.0 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | Alcoholic beverages and tobacco | 49.7 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | Clothing and footwear | 53.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | Housing, water and energy | 162.8 | -5.0 | -5.8 | -4.2 | -4.2 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -0.8 |
| 5 | Interior decoration and household appliances | 74.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 6 | Health | 81.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 7 | Transport | 123.6 | -3.5 | -4.3 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.3 |
| 8 | Communication | 32.9 | -2.6 | -0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 9 | Recreation and culture | 87.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 10 | Education | 5.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 11 | Hotels, cafés and restaurants | 80.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 12 | Various goods and services | 83.7 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Inflation according to specific aggregates
The overall HICP can be broken down into five specific aggregates which together form the total expenditure.
- The inflation rate for fuels and energy sources has gone up after four consecutive months of decline. It now stands at -13.1 % compared to -18.9 % in May and -16.8 % in April. Prices increased on average by 4.0 % compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is -8.4 %.
- The inflation rate for processed food products has gone down compared to the previous month. It stood at 1.8 % in June compared to 2.7 % in May and April. Prices decreased on average by 0.3 % compared to May.
- Inflation for unprocessed food (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish) decreases slightly after seven consecutive months of increase. It now stands at 6.3 % compared to 6.4 % in May and 5.7 % in April. Prices decreased on average by 0.4 % compared to May. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 1.6 %.
- Inflation for non-energy industrial goods was running at 0.9 % in June and May, compared to 1.0 % in April. Compared to May, prices remained on average unchanged.
- Inflation for services (including rents) stands at 1.5% compared to 1,6 % in May and April. Prices increased by 0.3 % on average compared to the previous month.
Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) was running at 1.4 % in June, a slight decrease compared to 1.6 % in April and May. Average core inflation over the last 12 months amounts to 1.6 %. Prices of this subaggregate have increased by 0.1 % compared to the previous month.
Inflation according to specific aggregates
| Specific aggregates | Weight (‰) | Inflation on annual basis (%) | 12-month average (%) | Monthly change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr/20 | May-20 | June-20 | June-20 | June-20 | ||
| Total expenditure | 1000.0 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Fuels and energy sources | 97.4 | -16.8 | -18.9 | -13.1 | -8.4 | 4.0 |
| Processed food products | 171.5 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | -0.3 |
| Unprocessed food products | 43.2 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 1.6 | -0.4 |
| Non-energy industrial goods | 267.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Services | 420.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| HICP without energy and unprocessed food (core inflation) | 859.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.1 |
Effect of sub-indices on inflation
The largest upward effect on inflation was caused by rents (0.19 percentage point). Fruit provided an upward effect of 0.14 percentage point. Finally, restaurants and cafés had an effect of 0.13 percentage point.
Sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation
| Sub-index | Weight (‰) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | June/20 | ||
| 04.1.0 | Rents | 71.1 | 0.19 |
| 01.1.6 | Fruit | 10.8 | 0.14 |
| 11.1.1 | Restaurants, cafés and similar services | 69.9 | 0.13 |
The largest downward effect on inflation came from motor fuels and lubricants (-0.39 percentage point). Liquid fuels had a downward impact of -0.38 percentage point. Finally, gas provided a downward effect of -0.28 percentage point.
Sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation
| Sub-index | Weight (‰) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | June/20 | ||
| 07.2.2 | Fuels and lubricants | 33.7 | -0.39 |
| 04.5.3 | Liquid fuels | 12.2 | -0.38 |
| 04.5.2 | Gas | 16.1 | -0.28 |
Comparison with neighbouring countries
Since the final HICP of the neighbouring countries will not be published until later, comparisons can only be made based on the first HICP flash estimate for June.
In June, inflation in Belgium was running at 0.2 %, up from the -0.2 % registered in May. The Netherlands registered an inflation rate of 1.7 % in June; an increase compared to an inflation rate of 1.1 % in May. Inflation in France in June amounted to 0.1 %, down from the rate of 0.4 % observed in May. Inflation in Germany in June amounted to 0.8 %, up from the rate of 0.5 % observed in May.
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Since the HICP at constant tax rates for June are not yet published by Eurostat, May is the most recent month to use as a basis for comparison. Belgium's inflation rate based on the HICP-CT stood at -0.2 % in May, down from a rate of 0.0 % in April. This inflation in Germany in May amounted to 0.5 %, a decrease compared to the rate of 0.9 % observed in April. In France, this inflation was 0.2 % in April and May. This inflation in the Netherlands in May amounted to 1.1 %, slightly down from 1.2 % in April.
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[1]In addition to the national consumer price index (CPI), Statbel also calculates a European harmonised consumer price index (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HICP). The HICP is used to compare inflation rates in the EU Member States. To this end, the applied expenditure approach and methods have been coordinated as much as possible and laid down in European regulations. The results of the CPI and HICP are not the same. This is mainly due to a different weighting and composition of the basket of goods and services on which these indices are based.
The HICP is also used by the European Central Bank in its monetary policy. Additionally, the HICP is used to determine to what extent a Member State meets the inflation criteria set in the Treaty on European Union.
Differences between the HICP and the current CPI are:
- The weighting of the basket of goods and services in the HICP is mainly based on the national accounts. At lower detailed levels the Household Budget Survey is used. The CPI mostly uses the Household Budget Survey at all levels.
- The reference population of the HICP consists of private households (including tourists in Belgium) and institutional households (e.g. retirement homes and nursing homes). In the CPI, this population currently consists of private households with a reference person under a maximum age.
- The HICP uses the concept of domestic expenditure: expenditure in Belgium by the reference population. The CPI uses the concept of national expenditure: expenditure by the reference population irrespective of the location.
- Seasonal adjustment is not applied in the HICP, but is applied in the CPI to travels abroad and stays in holiday villages.
- Sales periods in the CPI are systematically spread over 6 months, but are included in the same month in the HICP.
- Current prices for domestic heating oil are used in the HICP calculation. A weighted 12-month average is applied in the CPI calculation.
[2] The HICP-CT is calculated in the same way as the regular HICP, but the prices in this index are calculated based on constant tax rates. This index therefore reflects the theoretically potential effect of changes in indirect tax rates (such as VAT or excise duties) on measured inflation. However, this is a theoretical effect, since it presupposes that tax changes are immediately and entirely reflected in prices paid by consumers.
[3] Inflation on annual basis measures the price changes between the current month and the same month of the year before. A 12-month average compares the average HICP of the last 12 months with the average of the previous 12 months. A monthly change compares the price levels of the last two months.
[4]An effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including this sub-index in the CPI calculation. The effect not only takes the weight of the sub-index into account, but it also takes into account whether the sub-index inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall HICP).