- Belgium's inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) was running at 2.7 % in July compared to 2.6 % in June. Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) was running at 1.6 % in July, against 1.7 % in June.
- The inflation rate based on the consumer price index (CPI) for July stood at 2.2 % compared to 2.1 % in June. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the CPI is largely due to the larger weight of fuels and energy sources in the HICP and to the fact that no moving average is used for domestic heating oil in the HICP.
- The sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation were motor fuels, domestic heating oil, gas and tobacco.
- Most of the downward pressure on inflation in July came from clothing, rents, telecommunications and cultural services.
- The harmonised index of consumer prices of July for the EU Member States will be published by Eurostat on 17 August.
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Inflation based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) was running at 2.7 % in July, up from 2.6 % in June. Inflation based on the harmonised index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT) was running at 2.5 % in July and remained unchanged from June. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the HICP-CT is largely due to the changes in excise duties on motor fuels and tobacco. These increases are not taken into account in the HICP-CT.
Inflation and effect on inflation for the 12 main groups
Based on the breakdown into 12 main groups, the highest inflation rate in July was measured for "transport" (5.8 %). The lowest inflation rate was measured for "clothing and footwear" (-1.7 %).
The main groups with the largest upward effect on inflation in July were "housing, water, energy" and "transport" with an effect on inflation of 0.4 percentage point each. "Interior decoration and household appliances" and "recreation and culture" had both the largest downward effect on inflation, with -0.2 percentage point.
Inflation and effect on inflation for the overall HICP and 12 main groups
| Product group | Weight (‰) | Inflation on annual basis (%) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HICP | HICP-CT | ||||||||
| May/18 | Jun/18 | Jul/18 | Jul/18 | May/18 | Jun/18 | Jul/18 | |||
| 0 | Total expenditure | 1000.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | |||
| 1 | Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 164.1 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | Alcoholic beverages and tobacco | 48.8 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 3 | Clothing and footwear | 54.3 | 0.8 | 0.7 | -1.7 | -1.7 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 4 | Housing, water and energy | 165.9 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 5 | Interior decoration and household appliances | 74.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| 6 | Health | 77.2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 7 | Transport | 122.2 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 8 | Communication | 32.0 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 9 | Recreation and culture | 90.7 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| 10 | Education | 5.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 11 | Hotels, cafés and restaurants | 79.6 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 12 | Various goods and services | 85.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
Inflation according to specific aggregates
The overall HICP can be broken down into five specific aggregates which together form the total expenditure.
- The inflation rate for fuels and energy sources has gone up. It was running at 13.4 % in July compared to 11.3 % in June and 8.2 % in May. Prices increased on average by 1.1 % compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 6.3 %.
- Inflation for processed food products stood at 3.7 % in July just like in June. It stood at 3.5 % in May. Prices increased on average by 0.3 % compared to June.
- Inflation for unprocessed food (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish) amounts to 2.0 % in July compared to 2.2 % in June and in May. Prices decreased on average by 0.6 % compared to June. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 0.6 %.
- The inflation for non-energy industrial goods was running at 0.8 % in July, down from 0.9 % in June. Prices decreased by 5.1 % on average compared to June mainly because of the sales period.
- Inflation for services amounts to 1.5 % in July compared to 1.6 % in June and May. Prices increased on average by 1.3 % compared to June.
Core inflation(inflation without energy and unprocessed food) was running at 1.6 % in July, registering a decrease compared to the inflation rate of 1.7 % measured in June. Prices of this sub-aggregate decreased by 0.9 % on average compared to the previous month, because of the summer sales period.
Inflation according to specific aggregates
| Specific aggregates | Weight (‰) | Inflation on annual basis (%) | 12-month average (%) | Monthly change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May/18 | Jun/18 | Jul/18 | Jul/18 | Jul/18 | ||
| Total expenditure | 1000.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.0 | -0.7 |
| Fuels and energy sources | 99.5 | 8.2 | 11.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 1.1 |
| Processed food products | 134.6 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 0.3 |
| Unprocessed food | 78.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | -0.6 |
| Non-energy industrial goods | 272.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | -5.1 |
| Services | 415.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| HICP without energy and unprocessed food (core inflation) | 822.2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | -0.9 |
Effect of sub-indices on inflation
The largest upward effect on inflation was caused by motor fuels (0.49 percentage point). Domestic heating oil provided an effect of 0.41 percentage point. The impact of gas on inflation was 0.15 percentage point. Finally, tobacco provided an effect of 0.11 percentage point.
Sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation
| Sub-index | Weight (‰) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Jul/18 | ||
| 07.2.2 | Motor fuels | 33.4 | 0.49 |
| 04.5.3 | Domestic heating oil | 16.5 | 0.41 |
| 04.5.2 | Gas | 16.3 | 0.15 |
| 02.2.0 | Tobacco | 29.3 | 0.11 |
The largest downward effect on inflation came from clothing (-0.12 percentage point). Rents and telecommunication had both a contribution of -0.11 percentage point. Finally, cultural services had an effect of -0.08 percentage point.
Sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation
| Sub-index | Weight (‰) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Jul/18 | ||
| 03.1.2 | Clothing | 42.4 | -0.12 |
| 04.1.0 | Housing rent | 62.3 | -0.11 |
| 08.3.0 | Telecommunication | 30.0 | -0.11 |
| 09.4.2 | Cultural services | 15.3 | -0.08 |
Comparison with neighbouring countries
Since the HICP of the neighbouring countries will not be published until later, comparisons can only be made for the month of June.
In June, inflation in Belgium was running at 2.6 %, up from the 2.3 % registered in May. The Netherlands registered an inflation rate of 1.7 % in June; a decrease compared to an inflation rate of 1.9 % in May. Inflation in France in June amounted to 2.3 % and remained stable compared to May. Inflation in Germany was running at 2.1 % in June, a slight decrease from the inflation rate of 2.2 % in May.
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Belgium's inflation rate based on the HICP-CT stood at 2.5 % in June, up from a rate of 2.1 % in May. In Germany, it was running at 2.1 %, slightly down from 2.2 % in May. This inflation rate in France went up from 1.6 % in May to 1.7 % in June. In the Netherlands, it was running at 1.2 % in June, down from 1.5 % in May./hicp2018-07c_en.png)