- Belgium's inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices amounted to 2.1 % in December, just like in November.
- Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) stood at 1.8 % in December compared to 1.5 % in November.
- The sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation were motor fuels, tobacco, accommodation, electricity and domestic heating oil.
- Most of the downward pressure on inflation in December came from clothing, package holidays and vegetables.
- The harmonised index of consumer prices of December for the EU Member States will be published by Eurostat on 17th January.
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The inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) stood at 2.1 % in December, just like in November. Inflation based on the harmonised index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT) was running at 1.9 % in December and remained unchanged from November. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the HICP-CT is largely due to the changes in excise duties on motor fuels and tobacco. These increases are not taken into account in the HICP-CT.
Inflation and effect on inflation for the 12 main groups
Based on the breakdown into 12 main groups, the highest inflation rate in December was measured for "Alcoholic beverages and tobacco" (4.3 %). The lowest inflation rate was measured for "clothing and footwear" (0.3 %).
The main group with the largest upward effect on inflation in December was "housing, water, energy" with an effect on inflation of 0.2 percentage point. The largest downward effect was measured for "recreation and culture" (-0.2 percentage point).
Inflation and effect on inflation for the overall HICP and 12 main groups
| Product group | Weight (‰) | Inflation on annual basis (%) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HICP | HICP-CT | ||||||||
| Oct/17 | Nov/2017 | Dec/2017 | Dec/2017 | Oct/17 | Nov/2017 | Dec/2017 | |||
| 0 | Total expenditure | 1.000,0 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | |||
| 1 | Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 164.4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| 2 | Alcoholic beverages and tobacco | 49.7 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 3 | Clothing and footwear | 59.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 4 | Housing, water and energy | 159.3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | Interior decoration and household appliances | 74.9 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 6 | Health | 78.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 7 | Transport | 117.6 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 8 | Communication | 33.2 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 9 | Recreation and culture | 93.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| 10 | Education | 6.2 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 11 | Hotels, cafés and restaurants | 78.2 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 12 | Various goods and services | 85.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Inflation according to specific aggregates
The overall HICP can be broken down into five specific aggregates which together form the total expenditure.
- The inflation rate for fuels and energy sources has gone down. It was running at 5.6 % in December compared to 9.2 % in November and 5.6 % in October. Prices decreased on average by 0.2 % compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 10.1 %.
- Inflation for processed food products stood at 3.2 % in December, compared to 2.6 % in November and 2.1 % in October. Prices decreased on average by 0.1 % compared to November.
- Inflation for unprocessed food (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish) stood at 0.8 % in December compared to -0.1 % in November. Prices increased on average by 0.8 % compared to November. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 0.1 %.
- The inflation for non-energy industrial goods was running at 0.9 % in December, up from 0.7% in the previous month. Prices increased on average by 0.3 % compared to November.
- Inflation for services increased to 1.9 % in December from 1.7 % in November. Prices increased on average by 0.8 % compared to November.
Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) was running at 1.8 % in December, registering an increase compared to the inflation rate of 1.5 % measured in November. Prices of this subaggregate increased on average by 0.5 % compared to the previous month.
Inflation according to specific aggregates
| Specific aggregates | Weight (‰) | Inflation on annual basis (%) | 12-month average (%) | Monthly change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct/17 | Nov/2017 | Dec/2017 | Dec/2017 | Dec/2017 | ||
| Total expenditure | 1.000,0 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| Fuels and energy sources | 90.4 | 5.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 10.1 | -0.2 |
| Processed food products | 134.7 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.1 | -0.1 |
| Unprocessed food | 79.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
| Non-energy industrial goods | 272.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Services | 422.6 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| HICP without energy and unprocessed food (core inflation) | 830.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
Effect of sub-indices on inflation
The largest upward effect on inflation was caused by motor fuels (0.12 percentage point). Tobacco and accommodation had an effect of 0.11 percentage point each. Electricity provided an effect of 0.09 percentage point. Domestic heating oil provided an effect of 0.07 percentage point.
Sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation
| Sub-index | Weight (‰) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Dec/2017 | ||
| 07.2.2 | Motor fuels | 30.8 | 0.12 |
| 02.2.0 | Tobacco | 28.7 | 0.11 |
| 11.2.0 | Accommodation | 8.5 | 0.11 |
| 04.5.1 | Electricity | 30.6 | 0.09 |
| 04.5.3 | Domestic heating oil | 12.5 | 0.07 |
The largest downward effect on inflation came from clothing (-0.09 percentage point). Package holidays and vegetables had an effect of -0.08 percentage point each.
Sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation
| Sub-index | Weight (‰) | Effect on inflation (percentage point) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Dec/2017 | ||
| 03.1.2 | Clothing | 46.0 | -0.09 |
| 09.6.0 | Package holidays | 16.6 | -0.08 |
| 01.1.7 | Vegetables | 16.1 | -0.08 |
Comparison with neighbouring countries
Since the HICP of the neighbouring countries will not be published until later, comparisons can only be made for the month of November.
In November, inflation in Belgium was running at 2.1 %, up from the 1.8 % registered in October. The Netherlands registered an inflation rate of 1.5 % in November; a slight increase compared to an inflation rate of 1.3 % in October. Inflation in France was running at 1.2 % in November, unchanged from October. Inflation in Germany was running at 1.8 % in November, up from 1.5 % in October.
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Belgium's inflation rate based on the HICP-CT stood at 1.9 % in November, up from a rate of 1.7 % in October. This inflation rate in Germany also went up from 1.5 % in October to 1.8 % in November. This inflation rate in France went slightly up from 1.0 % in October to 1.1 % in November. In the Netherlands, this inflation was running at 1.5 % in November, up from 1.3 % in October.
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